[Tubby Isaacs]

To take one random example, would a middling degree in classics lead the average student to editing a magazine straight out of uni?

That's a good example actually. Obviously, Oxbridge isn't typical but from people I know, I can think of a few who went into stuff like journalism, arts and media who've done well at them over the longer term (I think on merit in the people I'm thinking of, though I suppose we always think that of our friends). After 15 months, they were scrabbling about. No doubt they had more contacts than other people, but that doesn't mean Cameron-style entry to top jobs.

But they'd be failures by this metric.

[Boiler]

Actually, I think they could well be right. I'm getting 1992 vibes here and remember, the next GE is eighteen months away; plenty of time for Sunak's fortunes to reverse/Starmer to fuck up.

I'm expecting a minority Conservative government.

The Tories have a pissed off former leader who will openly sabotage Sunak out of spite, they are 40 sitting MPs down and rising, they have no respected heavy hitters left, they have the covid inquiry and ongoing investigations that will be constant reminding people that they partied while others suffered, and another winter of insane fuel bills and potential strikes to get through.

But who knows where things will be in eighteen months? The cost of living could fall, interest rates could come down. Knock IHT on the head, knock a couple of pence off income tax and it'll all be "covid was so long ago, who cares now?" and before you know it, shit-grinning Rishi is on the steps at no. 10 again.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Interest rates haven't properly bitten yet, which will effect business loans and not just house prices. But you could get a big revision by the OBR, and that would help.

[Watchman]

Should we therefore expect Chancellors of the Exchequer to have a First in Economics from The LSE, as a minimum requirement for the job

[Crabcakes]

But who knows where things will be in eighteen months? The cost of living could fall, interest rates could come down. Knock IHT on the head, knock a couple of pence off income tax and it'll all be "covid was so long ago, who cares now?" and before you know it, shit-grinning Rishi is on the steps at no. 10 again.

But for any of that to happen, they would have to do something - and there is no sign of any sort of such policies. Hunt is remarkably anonymous and just seems to be hoping for the best news globally, and that some of that will rub off on the UK. Sunak governs like a coward and lets the bullies enact their dreadful, unpopular policies while he runs away at every suggestion of a difficult vote or awkward situation - he’s as bad as May was in terms of seeming human and will be *terrible* on the campaign trail. The other Tory ministers are almost all utterly awful and will fair no better if sent out in his place. Anyone a quarter decent will be steering clear of being too much of a ‘face’ as it’ll kill their own career.

Interest rates may fall, but people are fixing mortgages *now* in fear it could get worse still, have been for a year or so while they’ve been getting progressively worse, and will still be fixing them for at least 6 months while deals are shite and rates are high. Lower rates won’t make them vote Tory, but quite the opposite - they’ll be reminded whose fiscal balls-up meant they’re screwed paying hand over fist well into the late 2020s. And the predicted house price crash pisses off yet more people whose investment value falls and/or who see their home enter negative equity.

The NHS crisis will continue, with at least 1 more tough winter before the next GE, and potentially a GE *in* winter as a nice, stark reminder.

And then waiting in the wings are Johnson and his fellow shit-stirrers, desperate for a crap result so they can swoop in and reclaim their rancid prize.

They have *nothing* in the tank. No rising stars, no new or clever policies, and just have greed and manufactured culture war (inheritance tax again? An anti-trans law for schools?). The only thing left in their gift is when to drop the trapdoor and let the noose tighten - and every day that goes by with Labour having a solid 20 point lead is a day’s less flexibility, because it has been even worse and could very easily get even worse for them again.

[Youngian]

Interest rates haven't properly bitten yet, which will effect business loans and not just house prices. But you could get a big revision by the OBR, and that would help.

House prices are stable around here and when interest rates rise and see a slight fall in London prices it takes about six months for it to cascade to the province. So you know when to sell at the top of the market. That’s what Mr Clever Clogs here has done with a flat and I’ve had one bite in a month, oops.

[davidjay]

Actually, I think they could well be right. I'm getting 1992 vibes here and remember, the next GE is eighteen months away; plenty of time for Sunak's fortunes to reverse/Starmer to fuck up.

I'm expecting a minority Conservative government.

The Tories have a pissed off former leader who will openly sabotage Sunak out of spite, they are 40 sitting MPs down and rising, they have no respected heavy hitters left, they have the covid inquiry and ongoing investigations that will be constant reminding people that they partied while others suffered, and another winter of insane fuel bills and potential strikes to get through.

But who knows where things will be in eighteen months? The cost of living could fall, interest rates could come down. Knock IHT on the head, knock a couple of pence off income tax and it'll all be "covid was so long ago, who cares now?" and before you know it, shit-grinning Rishi is on the steps at no. 10 again.

Ifs, buts, maybes. Meanwhile, facts include a government that has fucked up consistently for thirteen years, has no ideas beyond pointing at this month's Enemy Within, is bereft of even any second-rate political talent and is led by a man regarded even by his own colleagues as irrelevant.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Should we therefore expect Chancellors of the Exchequer to have a First in Economics from The LSE, as a minimum requirement for the job

Better than a Desmond in history...

[Tubby Isaacs]

As the saying goes, they are not sending their best.

And there's more.

[Bones McCoy]

Tory MP in charge of scrutinising British media hosted drinks event for GB News

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... or-gb-news


More partisanship.

[Youngian]

A TV station of far right conspiracy cranks. Andrew Bridgen has a right to feel hard done by.

[Youngian]

Also feeling hard done by is Francois, don’t care why but carry on shouting at you’re colleagues

[Malcolm Armsteen]

He's objecting to sharing values with the EU.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

From Mr Young's Twitter:

Made me laugh...

[Youngian]

Wondering how far down the line you could pull something like this with Badenoch’s department.

[Youngian]

Miriam’s been drinking the looney juice again. She studied genetics at university, was she disappointed right wing genetic ‘theories’ weren’t covered?
By left wing she means gaining critical thinking faculties.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

And she clearly doesn't believe in the Flynn Effect...

[Youngian]

Can’t say I’ve met many ranting Citizen Smith type graduates since the Miners Strike.

[Abernathy]

Right, so. Apparently, the Tories are considering abolishing inheritance tax as a desperate bribe to try to hold onto power at the election.

What’s the big deal on inheritance tax, then ? Isn’t it just another variety of capital gains tax? It seems to me that this policy is yet another Tory appeal to naked self-interest and greed. Seemingly, it only applies to about 3% of the population, in any case.

Desperate, desperate stuff, though it’s feeding the radio phone-ins.

[Dalem Lake]

My questions based on this poll: who are these absolutely insane people in the party of government, and what exactly do they think is going to lead to such a reversal of fortune?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... g-win-next

Actually, I think they could well be right. I'm getting 1992 vibes here and remember, the next GE is eighteen months away; plenty of time for Sunak's fortunes to reverse/Starmer to fuck up.

I'm expecting a minority Conservative government.

I think the Tories are done. They'll have the grey vote of course, and the 30p Lee electorate, but I do honestly think people are fed up with them. They only need to lose 30 seats and their majority is gone and I think they'll lose a lot more than that, to Labour and the Lib Dems. The problem for Labour is that they start from such a shit position: they only have 195 MPs at the moment and to get a solid majority they need to win about another 150 seats, which is a very tall order indeed. So if I were a betting man, right now I'd go for a hung parliament with Labour largest with Lib Dems possibly regaining 3rd spot over the SNP.