Abernathy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:23 pm
Starmer could very easily stand up and publicly call for a cease-fire tomorrow, but it would be no more than a token, almost Corbynesque gesture. Because the Israelis are not interested in a cease-fire any time soon. They think it would afford Hamas time to re-group and strike at Israel again - which they definitely do not want.
I think that a lot of people are guilty of under-estimating the sheer enormity of the Hamas attack on Israel of 7 October. It really was the biggest and worst attack on Jewish people since the Holocaust, and the state of Israel is in no mood to fanny about with responding with anything other than extreme prejudice, as we know from its track record on such things.
Having said that, large numbers of Muslim Labour councillors storming out in a public strop could well have a detrimental effect on the party's hitherto very rosy opinion poll ratings, and thence on the (all but presumed to be nailed-on) imminent general election victory. This really could be a case of stroppy gits with a (self-perceived) righteous grievance throwing trip hazards in Starmer's path as he progresses along the highly polished floor of the long corridor carefully carrying the priceless porcelain vase of electoral victory (and yes, it's that metaphor again).
All that that being the case, why doesn't Keir just do what these guys want and put out a statement unambiguously calling for a cease-fire right now?
I wonder what his strategic advisors are telling him? Alastair ?
Some thoughts.
1. Starmer remains laser focussed on winning the next election. Is Israel/Hamas a top electoral issue for the majority? I don't believe it. I think the majority of the British electorate, whilst upset by civilian deaths, be they Israeli or Palestinian, have other concerns on their minds provided it doesn't affect the price they pay at the petrol pump too much.
2. Images of pro-Palestinian protests on the TV are counter productive. We've recently had a 15 year period of fairly frequent terrorist attacks by radical Islamists. The protests are against Israel who are fighting against Hamas who are a proscribed group of radical Islamic terrorists, I'm not convinced that there's a vast groundswell of popular opposition to Israel's stated objective. I know and you know it's more nuanced than that - but what about the less politically nerdy? The majority who CBA to follow it too closely?
3. One of Starmer's stated objectives when he won the leadership was to cut out the cancer of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, he's done an excellent job so far. What a gift it would be to the Tories if he gave them any opportunity to say "same old anti-Semitic Labour, not supporting Israel. Don't forget, Starmer wanted Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister!". Starmer has to be very cautious about any criticism of Israel which could be twisted into anti-Semitism.
Edit: some cross-posting with Crabcakes.