[Tubby Isaacs]

We're probably going to get tax cutting headbanger stuff now, whoever wins. This will of course involve the pensions triple lock and the winter fuel allowance remaining, and much more money for Defence. In order to make this seem plausible, we'll get every load of Policy Exchange rubbish adopted as policy.

[Youngian]

In fairness, George Eaton makes a good point here. This is still pretty much the same country who voted for Brexit in 2016, and gave Boris Johnson a landslide victory in 2019.

It isn't the same country, and will be even less so in 2029. And anyway most people who wanted Brexit done don't care about the UK setting a load of its own specs.

Badenoch-Jenrick may well find a way, but it'll have to be a different way.

There will be a slight demographic change in 13 years after 2016 but not enough for Olukemi Adegoke to be the Tory leader that woos back voters from Farage's mob. The Tories are not hungry enough to head for the centre and reclaim the blue wall seats. Just as well, if a moderate pragmatist lost GE2029 for the Tories the crazies would be back in the Tory driving seat. Ed Davey can rest easy.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Estate Agent cuntery writ large.
Morals of a sewer rat.

[Crabcakes]

In fairness, George Eaton makes a good point here. This is still pretty much the same country who voted for Brexit in 2016, and gave Boris Johnson a landslide victory in 2019.

He has sort of got a point - but worth remembering it’s Brexit and Johnson that got us a Labour landslide. The electorate may be largely the same in terms of individuals of voting age (give or take some new in, some now departed), but we’ve fucked around and found out and come out the other side after some really rocky years.

People’s memories aren’t that short. They remembered Johnson’s lies when it came to polling day even though he was long gone. They’re still remembering Truss’s economic asshattery when they look at their mortgage bill. And Badenoch at the ballot box, with her culture wars, arrogance, oh-so thin skin and utter ineptitude is going to keep all those memories fresh with interest.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is Farage going to be about in 5 years time? If Reform are led by Rupert Lowe then I can see Kemi getting some of them back, just like Bozo did.

[Philip Marlow]

Tugendhat did have some loon support (like Nick Timothy) but very hard to foresee that Cleverly couldn't add 3 or 4 out of 20.

I’m wondering if Cleverly doesn’t have a dose of the Penny Mordaunt problem. He can mouth all the right lines but the hardliners don’t really buy him as a true believer.

[Tubby Isaacs]

They won't like him, but I think there has to be more to it seeing he had 39 and ended up with 37.

I think the most likely explanation is that MPs who supported him decided to shift their vote and keep out Badenoch or Jenrick. For this stuff to work, it has to be centrally organised (discretely) with everyone agreed on how many would do it, and who they'll concentrate on excluding.

[satnav]

One explanation would be that Jenrick supporting MPs voted Cleverly in the previous round to try and push Kemi into a poor third place but then switched back to Jenrick believing that Badenoch had little chance of gaining 10 extra votes she needed.

In earlier rounds Badenoch could only manage 30 votes which suggests that only a quarter of Tory MPs actually back Kemi.

[Crabcakes]

Rumours are this is exactly what happened - his supporters tried to keep Badenoch out, but overshot.

The perfect ending to the last chance the Tories had to avoid becoming a bunch of fringe lunatics.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The margins were very fine- 41, 41, 37- far too fine to be playing silly games with. That would require vote counting to LBJ (as Senate Leader) standards of precision.

I think this may cause a stink. Cleverly may have been a bit presumptious in thinking he was home, but (with hindsight) I think it's unlikely he would have taken this risk- Badenoch and Jenrick are both going to be better at ticking members' fancy that him, what's the difference? So I think he'll want to make it clear that this didn't happen. That leaves Jenrick in the frame.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

The finger of blame appears to be Shapps directed.

[Abernathy]

Just heard a Tory bloke on Ian Dale’s show (can’t remember his name) suggesting, in all seriousness, that as soon as the new leader is in place, whether it’s Bad Enoch or Pugsley, they should immediately conduct a vote of confidence in themselves amongst the Tory Parliamentary Party, in order to establish their authority right from the start. He didn’t say what should happen if the new leader loses the vote.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's absurd. Whoever's ever heard of that?

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Probably from the Lettuce's mates at Bufton-Tufton Street, or someone who wants Bunter back.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tufton would Badenoch or Jenrick.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Tufton might Truss.
But Truss need MP be.
So long game, innit?

[davidjay]

It occurs to me that Tory MPs may well have been loath to offer the membership a “Hobson’s” choice between two brown people. You can never underestimate the degree of latent racism out there in blue-rinsed swivel-eyed land.

Is pretty much my belief.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Nastiest Tory I ever met was black.

Just sayin'...

[kreuzberger]

Just heard a Tory bloke on Ian Dale’s show (can’t remember his name) suggesting, in all seriousness, that as soon as the new leader is in place, whether it’s Bad Enoch or Pugsley, they should immediately conduct a vote of confidence in themselves amongst the Tory Parliamentary Party, in order to establish their authority right from the start. He didn’t say what should happen if the new leader loses the vote.

As if their new leader will have the time to call a VoC before the letters come "flooding" in, come what may?

[Bones McCoy]

The finger of blame appears to be Shapps directed.

Spivvy Shapps has done an incompetence???

I'm shocked, and so is Claude Rains.