Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Abernathy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 12:40 pm It strikes me that if Jimmy Dimly wins the leadership, he'll be the first beardy Tory leader in many years.

Electing a beardy chap as your leader doesn't end well. Labour has been there and got the T-shirt.

Hadn't noticed much, his beard rather suits him and he's not a narky lefty know it all like Robin Cook or Keith from Nuts in May.

Badenoch's got an endorsement from Ron De Santis. This may not be particularly helpful.

Robert Jenrick has come out hard against... the Northern Ireland protocol, which he says is "temporary". It's temporary until it isn't, and nobody is going to agree to the sort of changes he wants.

I think it's underrated the extent to which the Tories could lose seats next time to even more efficient tactical voting. Majority of fewer than 2,000 in 32 seats. Unlikely that they'd lose net seats, of course.

Few days old, but I hadn't seen this. Shame he's backed Badenoch.

I think it's underrated the extent to which the Tories could lose seats next time to even more efficient tactical voting. Majority of fewer than 2,000 in 32 seats. Unlikely that they'd lose net seats, of course.

Possibly but there's so many variables in today's violatile electoral arithmetic only a total moron would be predicting outcomes of GE2029. Which coincidentally Reform are based on a council ward by-election win in Blackpool last week. It's going to be a landslide for Reform.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 9:14 pm I think it's underrated the extent to which the Tories could lose seats next time to even more efficient tactical voting. Majority of fewer than 2,000 in 32 seats. Unlikely that they'd lose net seats, of course.

It's amazing to think how close the Tories came to an even more calamitous result back in July. In about a third of their remaining 121 seats, the Green Party vote exceeded that of the eventual Tory majority.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:25 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 9:14 pm I think it's underrated the extent to which the Tories could lose seats next time to even more efficient tactical voting. Majority of fewer than 2,000 in 32 seats. Unlikely that they'd lose net seats, of course.

It's amazing to think how close the Tories came to an even more calamitous result back in July. In about a third of their remaining 121 seats, the Green Party vote exceeded that of the eventual Tory majority.

Well yes, I'll admit that I was harbouring a vague hope of a total Tory annihilation in July. It didn't quite happen, but it nearly did.

Abernathy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:36 pm

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:25 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 9:14 pm I think it's underrated the extent to which the Tories could lose seats next time to even more efficient tactical voting. Majority of fewer than 2,000 in 32 seats. Unlikely that they'd lose net seats, of course.

It's amazing to think how close the Tories came to an even more calamitous result back in July. In about a third of their remaining 121 seats, the Green Party vote exceeded that of the eventual Tory majority.

Well yes, I'll admit that I was harbouring a vague hope of a total Tory annihilation in July. It didn't quite happen, but it nearly did.

Trouble is, in five years time the Greens and friends will be even less inclined to back Labour.

davidjay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:43 am

Trouble is, in five years time the Greens and friends will be even less inclined to back Labour.

I'm not sure that's true. I think lots would show up in seats where Reform were challenging.

The Tories may have an anti-net zero policy too.

Reform aren’t particularly going anywhere in my view.

The Lib Dem’s often forgotten in all this will play the biggest part.

Reform are clear second to Labour in lots of seats now. Presumably they add Tory votes to that. If they look like getting close to Labour, I think Greens and Lib Dems might show up for Labour.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:50 pm Reform are clear second to Labour in lots of seats now. Presumably they add Tory votes to that. If they look like getting close to Labour, I think Greens and Lib Dems might show up for Labour.

I wonder how many of the Cult will be left by then. I wouldn't be surprised if they voted Reform to spite the nasty Starmer.

davidjay wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 8:56 pm I wouldn't be surprised if they voted Reform to spite the nasty Starmer.

That, and they are very anti-EU which they see as a hindrance to Putin's Imperial ambitions.

Tugboat Tom is out. That leaves Cleverley, Badenoch and Jenrick. Most of his votes will go to Cleverley. If Badenoch can scrape past Jenrick to 2nd place and get to a membership vote, she’ll win and doom the Tories. If she doesn’t, Cleverley will win and put in a mediocre performance.

Either way, I see no threats here for Labour.

Has Jenrick's vote actually gone down since the last round? He certainly seems to have stalled. Can't really see Jenrick picking up many of Tugendhat's supporters. So probably going to be Cleverly and Badenoch in the final round. Cleverly really seems to be the candidate with momentum.

Jenrictus has gone from 33 to 31.

Tommy Tug on 20. Bad Enoch on 29, Jimmy Dim on 39.

It is looking like it’ll be Jimmy Dimly vs either Jenrick or Bad Enoch.

If Bad Enoch makes it to the final two, the nutjob party members will elect her, and it’s game over for the Tories.

I love the idea that the bigots who make up the core of the grassroots Conservative Party could be forced to choose between two black candidates.

It's quite revealing looking at how each of the remaining candidates performed at the last election. None of these numbers scream "strong personal vote" to me:

James Cleverly (Braintree) = 35.5% vote share, majority 3,670 (7.5%)
Kemi Badenoch (NW Essex) = 35.6% vote share, majority 2,610 (4.8%)
Robert Jenrick (Newbury) = 39.2% vote share, majority 3,572 (6.7%)

Tactical voting makes each of them vulnerable next time, especially in the case of Badenoch where the combined LAB/LD/GRN vote is just over 47%

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2024 9:04 pm Badenoch's got an endorsement from Ron De Santis. This may not be particularly helpful.

A poor man’s Donald Trump. Seriously.