[Tubby Isaacs]

I would expect a few Citizens of Nowhere live in Chesham and Amersham. It's not the most obvious place to move to because you can't get on the housing ladder in London, but you might move there if you are on it with a small flat and fancy a small house with a garden. Or you might be from there and quite like going to London (for work or leisure).

[The Rationalist]

There are a surprisingly large number of them. High earning young to middle aged professionals with young children decamping for schooling, space. It is insufferably smug in many ways but they are also mostly completely woke! Wall to wall X5's and picture perfect families with yummy mummies and daddies and lots of Hugo's and Charlottes!

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good thread here.

[davidjay]

That's interesting and does give more credence to the idea that an electoral pact and the promise of PR might just mean the next election ism't as forgone a conclusion as it currently appears.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't think a pact is a goer. Trust people to know who's the closest non-Tory where they live. If they want to transfer, then they will. There's always going to be "irreconcilables"- see the 622 Labour voters in Chesham and Amersham, to take an extreme example. Are many of those going Lib Dem if Labour don't run?

The downside of a pact is that the Tories will get their voters out on the back of it.

[Youngian]

The Lab-Con marginals will continue to be Labour’s main focus but where does it fight its flank; turning the suburbs red and yellow (LD fortunes are dependent on a Labour leader taken seriously) or reclaiming Red wall seats? Not confident you can do both.

[Youngian]

If this trend from Tory to LD accelerates what do the Tories do about it? Warning them they’re letting in dangerous Marxist Starmer by the back door isn’t going to wash.

[Youngian]

A beach house in Malibu was probably the deal breaker for Clegg to become a tech marketing guru. The Meta Vice President of global affairs looks bored shitless. And doesn’t look glad to be out of the cut and thrust of politics.

[Bones McCoy]

If this trend from Tory to LD accelerates what do the Tories do about it? Warning them they’re letting in dangerous Marxist Starmer by the back door isn’t going to wash.

Last time it was a problem, they invited them into coalition.

[Arrowhead]

The latest YouGov MRP numbers suggest the Lib Dems could end up winning a couple of dozen of seats from the Tories, almost exclusively across southern England. The only downside is Rees-Mogg somehow clings on in NE Somerset, due to a split LD-LAB vote.

The latest numbers also suggest a few dozen other Tory seats being turned into Tory/LD marginals:

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think that looks a bit optimistic. Surrey as the new Cornwall? Believe it when I see it.

[mattomac]

I bet Johnson coming out with let’s do “Crossrail 2” went down like a bowl of sick in Wimbledon.

So I can see that, they will take St Ives as the Labour vote was momentum heavy so I assume enough will splinter to the LDs but no doubt some will go to the Greens.

As for Cornwall, Truro and Falmouth I am sure will go Labour.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Surprising to see there was a LD-Con swing last time in St Ives, despite Labour voters from 2017 mostly going tactical. I suppose there was a rump of old-style Eurosceptic West Country Lib Dems, who used to vote for them because they made promises about scrapping the Common Fisheries Policy.

[Arrowhead]

I think that looks a bit optimistic. Surrey as the new Cornwall? Believe it when I see it.

That was my impression as well tbh. Ten years from now, perhaps. But still a lot of fun to look at, nonetheless

But if these projections only prove to be 50% accurate, that still spells big problems for the Tories across much the south.

[mattomac]

Surprising to see there was a LD-Con swing last time in St Ives, despite Labour voters from 2017 mostly going tactical. I suppose there was a rump of old-style Eurosceptic West Country Lib Dems, who used to vote for them because they made promises about scrapping the Common Fisheries Policy.

Yeah I was surprised it changed, I do think the LDs would be well advised to find someone new mind.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Might be a good idea. Labour died on their arse in 2015 by trying to bring back people who'd lost in 2010.

[The Weeping Angel]

Thanks Nick

[Tubby Isaacs]

Think that's a bit unfair. David Cameron had 306 MPs, Clegg had 57. They inherited plans from Labour in 2010. Cameron could easily have driven that forward if i was important to him. Setting up nuclear power is seriously expensive, and I think Cameron and Osborne were happy to avoid while they were fixated on their financial targets. Anyway, the Lib Dems stopped opposing in 2013. No reason why that couldn't be very close to completion now.

[mattomac]

Surprising to see there was a LD-Con swing last time in St Ives, despite Labour voters from 2017 mostly going tactical. I suppose there was a rump of old-style Eurosceptic West Country Lib Dems, who used to vote for them because they made promises about scrapping the Common Fisheries Policy.

The Labour vote is Or was momentum heavy down there so didn’t surprise me.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's been a while since they've been posted about. Here they are in Woking, turning down a tower block of affordable housing. People will be saved from ghettoisation by having to move out of Surrey and the South East altogether, or being homeless.

It's part of a bigger proposed development of high rise buildings. I think it sounds like a great idea, subject to fire safety. The Tories locally seem to be more positive than the Lib Dems, but it would doubtless be leveraged into an attack across the Blue Wall by Sunak, Hunt and co.