Mailwatch(ed) Forum

They're Labour moderates. They're some good people on there including a couple I know in real life. But a few posters mainly based in Scotland have really turned against the government.

I don't think that's how impeachment works Ben.

What are they discussing?

Interesting thing about Scotland is even though the polls have moved a bit that way for the SNP, council elections are still decent for Labour up there on the most part.

As for the Tories gaining, they seem to be falling, even the polls like find out now have them falling.

I do feel and it feels like from the more sensible pollsters that Reform have become a default option but there isn’t a massive groundswell for that, if people started to feel better the press can’t really do much and I do think Labour would start to creep up.

It’s a guess and see.

Labour seem to have fucked up here. Astra Zeneca have pulled out of a new plant in Merseyside. Even if we assume they were looking for a very large bung, this was worth doing. The Metro Mayor is trying to resurrect it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvglpd6q8wlo

What seems to have happened is that Reeves thought the Tory Government had promised too much on making it happen, and drove rather too hard a bargain. Doubtless the left lot who go on about corporate welfare will applaud Reeves, right?

I think corporate welfare is usually bad, but this is Merseyside, and a hopefully forward looking industry.

mattomac wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 3:10 am What are they discussing?

Interesting thing about Scotland is even though the polls have moved a bit that way for the SNP, council elections are still decent for Labour up there on the most part.

As for the Tories gaining, they seem to be falling, even the polls like find out now have them falling.

I do feel and it feels like from the more sensible pollsters that Reform have become a default option but there isn’t a massive groundswell for that, if people started to feel better the press can’t really do much and I do think Labour would start to creep up.

It’s a guess and see.

They're talking about the Chagos Islands in that post up there.

The SNP are strangely bad at council by-elections. I don't know why. Would have thought they better suited than any other party out getting out a motivated base big enough to win them.

Sounds like some very large council tax rises coming.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... es-england

Would like to have seen the cap rise or be abolished, but without that, this will be the best solution.

mattomac wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 3:10 am What are they discussing?

Interesting thing about Scotland is even though the polls have moved a bit that way for the SNP, council elections are still decent for Labour up there on the most part.

As for the Tories gaining, they seem to be falling, even the polls like find out now have them falling.

I do feel and it feels like from the more sensible pollsters that Reform have become a default option but there isn’t a massive groundswell for that, if people started to feel better the press can’t really do much and I do think Labour would start to creep up.

It’s a guess and see.

Polls, Ironically the person who wrote that is Scottish she and a couple of others keep saying they're elections in 2026 which will see Labour get wiped out and everyone keep ignoring it.

Thoughts on this?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... g-34594641

The long-term sick will be required to look for work and many will see their benefits cut under a massive overhaul of welfare, it is reported.

Labour says it now must repair "Tory failures on welfare," which the party says has left the welfare bill ballooning. However, it means hundreds of thousands of people could see reductions in sickness benefits payments.

Chaminda Jayanetti isn't happy about it for one.

I think it was the other bits Matt was asking about. Treason is apparently ceding the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and paying (out of the Defense Budget, which was lower under their favored Tories) a fee to lease the base. There's a new government in Mauritius as well as the US, and I assume that they're trying to get more money out of the UK.

Quite how trying to get this deal done fits with "sucking up to Trump", hasn't been explained.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 12:13 pm I think it was the other bits Matt was asking about. Treason is apparently ceding the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and paying (out of the Defense Budget, which was lower under their favored Tories) a fee to lease the base. There's a new government in Mauritius as well as the US, and I assume that they're trying to get more money out of the UK.

Quite how trying to get this deal done fits with "sucking up to Trump", hasn't been explained.

Sorry I thought he was talking about the post from Labour's Future.

This is positive.

Jim McMahon MP
‪@jimmcmahon.co.uk‬

Follow
Today marks the first integrated settlement for Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, a landmark moment in our ambitious devolution agenda to empower local leaders and bring decision making closer to communities.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 25-to-2026

The links on there show all the funding streams there've been, Incredible. I'm sure it's not a lavish settlement but it's an improvement on having to send in bids for park chess sets.

Rachel Reeves under fire, apparently.

It's private investment that's being proposed. Funnily enough, the report was written by people who want to make the investment. If there's no case for the investment, they'll lose a load of money. The Government's role is (subject to carbon budgets) not to stand in the way of it. Why would you expect the Government to have written the report itself?

Reeves’s Heathrow third runway report was commissioned by London airport

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... on-airport

I've always assumed that stories in the media about the need to repair pot holes, build more houses or improve Internet coverage all originate from reports produced by the relevant trade bodies.

Reeves: "This runway will be controversial. If you want it, put a business case together."

And yes, that is exactly how ministersspeak...

The Weeping Angel wrote:Thoughts on this?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... g-34594641

The long-term sick will be required to look for work and many will see their benefits cut under a massive overhaul of welfare, it is reported.

Labour says it now must repair "Tory failures on welfare," which the party says has left the welfare bill ballooning. However, it means hundreds of thousands of people could see reductions in sickness benefits payments.

Chaminda Jayanetti isn't happy about it for one.

I'd take that with a pinch of salt and wait for an official statement because every article regarding Labour's plans for social security turns out to be shit-stirring by the media. That particular article is almost word for word the same one that was in the Times.

The ever increasing spending on disability benefits is going to be a very tough cookie for Labour to crack without hurting the poorest and vulnerable though. Firstly, getting PIP or being put in the LCWRA group of Universal Credit isn't easy. You have to have evidence, reports from doctors, etc, so if the government doesn't want that number to increase they'll have to make the application process even harder. Secondly, employers are very picky and for all their talk about being disability friendly and caring about mental health, in reality they don't give a shit and would rather not employ someone who's been out of work for a long period of time. We'll just have to see what Kendall comes up with before the budget but I'm not holding my breath that it will be any good.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 12:11 pm Thoughts on this?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... g-34594641

The long-term sick will be required to look for work and many will see their benefits cut under a massive overhaul of welfare, it is reported.

Labour says it now must repair "Tory failures on welfare," which the party says has left the welfare bill ballooning. However, it means hundreds of thousands of people could see reductions in sickness benefits payments.

Chaminda Jayanetti isn't happy about it for one.

I think it sounds awful. I think an unintended consequence of harassing job seekers is that people who might previously have dropped in and out of employment go for sickness benefit for a quieter life. That's something which could be reformed. Cutting the amounts so drastically though, that shouldn't be on.

Local housing allowance was frozen last year. I declare an interest but it's an objectively bad policy.

Whatever you think of Labour's position on the Single Market and the Customs Union (I think it's too soon to carry enough of the population with them) it's very noticeable how differently they're treated to the Tories.

Last two quarters of 2023 were a recession. They seemed to get a pretty easy time on the (apparently) instant growth that they could have had without their own Brexit. In come Labour, with some good growth ideas and a much better fiscal approach, and it's all "Why aren't you joining the Single Market and Customs Union? You're not serious about growth at all, are you?"

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 1:50 pm Whatever you think of Labour's position on the Single Market and the Customs Union (I think it's too soon to carry enough of the population with them) it's very noticeable how differently they're treated to the Tories.

Last two quarters of 2023 were a recession. They seemed to get a pretty easy time on the (apparently) instant growth that they could have had without their own Brexit. In come Labour, with some good growth ideas and a much better fiscal approach, and it's all "Why aren't you joining the Single Market and Customs Union? You're not serious about growth at all, are you?"

See the kicking they're getting because Yvette Cooper ruled out joining a youth mobility scheme. This from someone I follow on Bluesky is a good example.

https://bsky.app/profile/jwsidders.bsky ... 6pfs62qk2y

They are terrified and it is utterly pathetic.

See how the negotiations go, but if the EU are really saying "nothing changes unless you agree to this", that's pretty silly red line stuff too. I wonder if some of the countries closer to Putin would be happy for the EU to chuck away defence cooperation over this?

The Commission suggested a 4 year visa for 18-30. That's potentially a lot of people, especially if the Opposition say "we'll scrap this on day one". It was overwhelmingly this group who came before, and the Labour government got killed on that. Sure, lots fewer of them will settle, but you're still in a situation where you're treading on toes to build houses and they're barely keeping up with immigration.

I wonder if some of the people championing this stuff know that it's up to age 30. That's not really "youth".

There's also the point that different EU countries are after different practical things here. For the remaining poor Eastern members (not Poland any longer), it's much more about earning a better wage and having chances you don't have at home. If you're a richer Western member, it's probably more about career development, experience of a different (and English speaking) business culture. If you're Italy, it's probably about both.

Could member states think, fuck it, we're doing our own deals here?