By Oboogie
#79428
Tubby Isaacs wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:13 pm Depends who the last person in Trump's ear is. If some donors from arms manufacturers tell him supplying Ukraine and replacing the weapons is actually great, he might carry on with it.

Germany has stepped up its military spending pretty well from its historic pathetic level, and has done some good work on its energy supplies. But I worry about their support for Ukraine.
You make a good point about the US arms industry, equipping Ukraine is worth billions and a lot of jobs depend on it. I'll try and find some figures later.
Tubby Isaacs liked this
User avatar
By Crabcakes
#79525
I’m increasingly of the opinion it’s a waiting game. The Russian economy is fucked, they’ve lost an astonishing number of soldiers, much of their gear is old and outdated and morale is awful - a winning fighting force does not need to draft in troops from one of the poorest, most ass-backward nations on earth.

If Ukraine can keep the status quo for another year or so, Trump may be irrelevant -I think the Russian collapse (as in Putin being ousted) will come from out of the blue and be phenomenally quick.
User avatar
By Crabcakes
#79541
As an example of why Vlad is ultra-keen for a win, inflation in Russia is currently insane - the average median wage is 34000 roubles/month. The average *weekly* grocery spend is bumping up against 9000 roubles, and has gone up 28% this year.

The oligarchs may be loyal at the moment. But their fortunes are evaporating in front of their eyes. And Putin’s war is the reason - they have to pay ever higher wages to the military and defence firms, non-defence firms either have to match those wages or lose staff, and it cycles up and up.
By Youngian
#79544
Never seen this much geopolitical uncertainty in my lifetime. Trump may move Europe and China closer together leading to Bejing divesting from supplying Russia with arms. And that's an optistic scenario.

Lots of food for thought from international trade guru David Henig. He makes an interesting point that Trump doesn't worry so much about balanced trade that the UK and EU has with the US but China is his tariff target. Well worth UK/EU playing footsie with China to concentrate minds in Washington.
Watchman liked this
By Oboogie
#79599
NevTheSweeper wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 9:07 pm Now we know Putin isn't bluffing. He has ALWAYS got what he wanted. PM Keir Starmer looks as if he's still in denial. The country needs to prepare for war NOW.
The point at which we know someone isn't bluffing is when they act. Putin has repeatedly drawn red lines and threatened war with NATO since his invasion began. Each of those red lines has subsequently been crossed and all Putin does is draw another one further back. He's running out of men, equipment and money he can't defeat Ukraine, where is he going to get the resources to take on NATO? The fact that he's drafting in troops from North Korea shows just how desperate he is and that's just to maintain the war with Ukraine, he has no spare capacity.
mattomac liked this
User avatar
By Malcolm Armsteen
#79600
Also - Putin's aims are to reinstate the buffer zones that the USSR negotiated at the end of WW2. That is a long-standing (ie before 1900) Russian aim*, along with achieving warm water harbours** in the Crimea and the Baltic. He is not interested in any conflict which does not achieve those aims, so his strategy is essentially to 'bite and hold' territory. That is what he did in the Crimea, what he is doing in Ukraine and what he will do next in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which provide not only warm-water harbours but also a buffer zone in front of St Petersburg.

His aim is to preserve and promote Rusia, not destroy it, which would be the certain outcome of a general war, and would put his strategic aims back a century.


*The Central European Plain makes Russia very vulnerable to invasion (Napoleon, Hitler et al) and so Russia has always sought buffer states to protect their western flank. The eastern is protected by the
Urals.

** Russian ports such as Vladivostok and Archangel freeze in the winter. In order to maintain a naval presence Russia needs to have access to all-year ports and to be able to pass the Dardanelles. That latter might be tricky, so although Sevastapol is of key importance, Russia also needs a port in Syria (Tartus), which explains Putin's support of that regime, and passage of the Dardanelles which explians his warmth towards Turkey and the NATO/EU wish (what Cameron meant) to have Turkey in the fold.



https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portal ... hauhan.pdf
mattomac, Oboogie, Abernathy liked this
long long title how many chars? lets see 123 ok more? yes 60

We have created lots of YouTube videos just so you can achieve [...]

Another post test yes yes yes or no, maybe ni? :-/

The best flat phpBB theme around. Period. Fine craftmanship and [...]

Do you need a super MOD? Well here it is. chew on this

All you need is right here. Content tag, SEO, listing, Pizza and spaghetti [...]

Lasagna on me this time ok? I got plenty of cash

this should be fantastic. but what about links,images, bbcodes etc etc? [...]