Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:13 pm
Depends who the last person in Trump's ear is. If some donors from arms manufacturers tell him supplying Ukraine and replacing the weapons is actually great, he might carry on with it.
Germany has stepped up its military spending pretty well from its historic pathetic level, and has done some good work on its energy supplies. But I worry about their support for Ukraine.
You make a good point about the US arms industry, equipping Ukraine is worth billions and a lot of jobs depend on it. I'll try and find some figures later.
I’m increasingly of the opinion it’s a waiting game. The Russian economy is fucked, they’ve lost an astonishing number of soldiers, much of their gear is old and outdated and morale is awful - a winning fighting force does not need to draft in troops from one of the poorest, most ass-backward nations on earth.
If Ukraine can keep the status quo for another year or so, Trump may be irrelevant -I think the Russian collapse (as in Putin being ousted) will come from out of the blue and be phenomenally quick.
As an example of why Vlad is ultra-keen for a win, inflation in Russia is currently insane - the average median wage is 34000 roubles/month. The average *weekly* grocery spend is bumping up against 9000 roubles, and has gone up 28% this year.
The oligarchs may be loyal at the moment. But their fortunes are evaporating in front of their eyes. And Putin’s war is the reason - they have to pay ever higher wages to the military and defence firms, non-defence firms either have to match those wages or lose staff, and it cycles up and up.
Never seen this much geopolitical uncertainty in my lifetime. Trump may move Europe and China closer together leading to Bejing divesting from supplying Russia with arms. And that's an optistic scenario.
Lots of food for thought from international trade guru David Henig. He makes an interesting point that Trump doesn't worry so much about balanced trade that the UK and EU has with the US but China is his tariff target. Well worth UK/EU playing footsie with China to concentrate minds in Washington.
