[davidjay]

It makes the 1997 choice of Clarke, Hague, Lilley. Howard and Redwood seem like a gathering of political titans.

[mattomac]

The problem is the only serious change of direction in that lot is one or two the right.

[satnav]

I reckon Mel Stride will be the first candidate to get eliminated closely followed by Tom Tugendhat. Most of their supporters will then probably switch to Cleverly. Patel and Jenrick are both competing for votes from MPs on the right of the party but it is not clear if the right have got enough MPs to get a candidate through to the final round.

Badenoch keeps being tipped as the front runner but it might be interesting to see if some of her supporters vote tactically to ensure she has an easier opponent when it gets to the last 2. She would probably prefer to take on Patel in the contest for the votes of party members rather than Cleverly.

[Andy McDandy]

Badenoch tends to bluster under pressure, something Patel is less prone to. I'd go with Patel vs Cleverly, the former winning it due to being one step removed from the last government (although try getting any of them to admit to any errors).

[Crabcakes]

One thing I am surprised at - there are no total outsiders. I would have thought this was a prime opportunity for anyone up for leapfrogging to victory, given there’s less talent on display than at the regional heats of the 50th series of The X Factor.

[satnav]

Patel gave a speech last week where she bragged about what she had achieved as a minister but failed to mention why she was sacked as a minister. The speech seemed to be directed more at grassroots party members rather than MPs because she said she wanted to give grassroot party members more of a say in how candidates are selected. If she does make it to the final round she may do well with the grassroots.

[Andy McDandy]

They governed in campaign mode, hoping that the noise they generated distracted enough people from the lack of any actual achievement. Hence, how loud you shouted matters more than what you actually did to these people.

[Crabcakes]

Badenoch’s leadership bid launch is laughable. Apparently she’s not afraid to take on Doctor Who, a call back to when David Tennant (rightly, but somewhat clumsily) told her to shut up because of her comments on equality and she played every victim card in the pack.

If that’s the calibre of the favourite - willing to re-pick a minor fight from 6 months ago as the launch point for her leadership - then I suspect Starmer isn’t sweating much.

[satnav]

Cleverly launched his leadership bid today and his launch was woeful. The media had clearly been briefed that the launch would be at 12 so all the camera crews were in place but before he finally came onto the stage at 12.30 he first sent on a young Tory MP for Leicester East followed by former MP Grant Shapps. If I was launching a leadership bid I'm not really sure I would be using a loser like Shapps as my warm man.

His two main policy pledges seem to be abolishing stamp duty and bringing back the Rwanda policy. If he was to abolish stamp duty presumably he would have to introduce a new tax or raise existing taxes to fill the gap so it is hardly going to be a ground breaking policy. Reminding people of the failed Rwanda Policy really doesn't seem like a smart move given how much the policy cost.

[Crabcakes]

So so far we have:

Be more bigoted/cruel
Listen less
Tax bungs for the well off
I was not responsible for our terrible performance

And that applies to *every* candidate. Not one of them have anything even approaching interesting to say.

Absolutely convinced now that there will be no Tory challenge until 2035(ish) election at the earliest, let alone chance of them winning. They have nothing to offer and no one who you’d trust to deliver it.

[Crabcakes]

Also: found out today that Badenoch is *44*. On the one hand, she looks great for her age. On the other, the main reason I thought she must be younger is her penchant for petulant, entitled behaviour reminded me of uni-type young Tories in how unsophisticated and juvenile it is.

[Yug]

Reminding people of the failed Rwanda Policy really doesn't seem like a smart move given how much the policy cost.

It's James Cleverley. You don't expect smart from James Cleverley.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So so far we have:

Be more bigoted/cruel
Listen less
Tax bungs for the well off
I was not responsible for our terrible performance

And that applies to *every* candidate. Not one of them have anything even approaching interesting to say.

Absolutely convinced now that there will be no Tory challenge until 2035(ish) election at the earliest, let alone chance of them winning. They have nothing to offer and no one who you’d trust to deliver it.

They've improved in the polls since the election just by dumping their crap on the new government, and media help (not all from the right either).

[Andy McDandy]

Absolutely convinced now that there will be no Tory challenge until 2035(ish) election at the earliest, let alone chance of them winning. They have nothing to offer and no one who you’d trust to deliver it.

I suspect they're going for the Reform/Kip style "outrage" campaigning model. Say nothing works, point out the failures of the government, promise anything, whip up a cloud of toxic tribalism to deflect any criticism, get back in, do nothing while shouting about "the system", get booted out, repeat....

It occurred to me that in a bit of a Springtime for Hitler moment, they (Fargle likely figured this out a long time ago) realised that in the right circumstances, they can do (personally) better being the opposition than the government.

[satnav]

The first job any new leader will have to do is decide how they are going to approach the Reform Party. Unless the Tories can win back the millions of Tory voters who switched to Reform at the last election. Trying to be more extreme than Reform on immigration isn't really going to hack it. Reform can propose any rubbish knowing that they will never have to deliver but if the Tories put forward similar policies they will be closely scrutinized and pick apart particularly by the lawyers on the Tory benches in the Lords.

[soulboy]

Kemi's slogan is "Renewal 2030".

Kemi placed great stock in her training as an engineer during her speech.

I would have hoped that an engineer knows what the word renewal means, at least in the world of engineering. Here is a useful definition when referring to railways that would apply more widely.

"A distinction is made between renewal and enhancement, the former focused on replacing worn-out infrastructure, the latter on doing things that deliver a better outcome"

So Kemi is promising more of the same? What a bold vision.

[mattomac]

So so far we have:

Be more bigoted/cruel
Listen less
Tax bungs for the well off
I was not responsible for our terrible performance

And that applies to *every* candidate. Not one of them have anything even approaching interesting to say.

Absolutely convinced now that there will be no Tory challenge until 2035(ish) election at the earliest, let alone chance of them winning. They have nothing to offer and no one who you’d trust to deliver it.

They've improved in the polls since the election just by dumping their crap on the new government, and media help (not all from the right either).

Isn’t this usually the case, not sure that speech was a good idea last week mind.

[Oboogie]

The first job any new leader will have to do is decide how they are going to approach the Reform Party. Unless the Tories can win back the millions of Tory voters who switched to Reform at the last election. Trying to be more extreme than Reform on immigration isn't really going to hack it. Reform can propose any rubbish knowing that they will never have to deliver but if the Tories put forward similar policies they will be closely scrutinized and pick apart particularly by the lawyers on the Tory benches in the Lords.

The Tories lost four seats to Reform.
They lost far more to the LibDems, let alone Labour.
Long may the Tories charge down the road leading away from the battlefield.

[Crabcakes]

Badenoch has criticised Labour for means testing the winter fuel payment. Which will come as a surprise to Kemi Badenoch of 2022, given footage has been unearthed of her calling for that to happen at her bid launch for that week’s Tory leadership contest.

[Andy McDandy]

The Tories lost four seats to Reform.
They lost far more to the LibDems, let alone Labour.
Long may the Tories charge down the road leading away from the battlefield.

Good point - your average Reform voter is more likely to be a "fuck off the lot of you" stay at home type than a 'floating' voter. They voted Tory in 2019 because to a large degree they finally had a party on the list that met their approval.