- Sun Jul 07, 2024 4:44 pm
#72262
It is not for me to tell the Conservative Party what to do in the weeks and months ahead, but I will throw on a few first observations post election.
Clearly this was an even worse defeat than 1997 or 2001. Yes Starmer's Labour Party won on a smaller proportion of the vote than Labour in 1997, but a win is still a win.
They need to do a detailed analysis seat by seat of what happened with their vote, and how their message was received. There needs to be a careful analysis of the policy platform and the fact that it looked as though it was cobbled together at the last minute. It probably was as Sunak seems to have pulled the trigger with no reference in advance to his cabinet.
I will make a bold prediction at this stage and say that whoever becomes the new leader will not become Prime Minister. The mountain to climb is higher than following 45,83,97,or 2001, or indeed 2019. It is what Neil Kinnock has called on several occassions a two innings match. He knew in his heart that the changes he needed to make to both Labour's policy and organisation could not be achieved in one parliament, though of course he could never say that. the Conservative ground campaign is in poor shape in many places following years of council losses and the aging of the membership. I know it became a joke but a Lib Dem activist in a target seat always has another street's worth of leaflets to deliver.
The policy platform clearly did not work. Aping Reform will only shore up a certain amount of your vote and as we have seen,plenty looked at the offering and what was happening locally and voted Lib Dem or Labour. Look how many true blue seats were lost to the yellow team, Epsom being a prime example.
There have been some such as Suella Braverman, Lord Frost, and the Bruges Group, who think being even more right wing will bring success. I say to them, look at what happened to Labour post 1979, when their solution to defeat was to be even more left wing, the ruip roaring success that was the 1983 manifesto. Robert Buckland and others who lost on Thursday have articulated that view that a further lurch to the right with easy solutions to complex problems will not work.
Any MP who thinks about standing for the leadership should firstly spend several hours with William Hague, who had to pick up the pieces after 1997 and try to rebuild shattered morale, and secondly watch the Michael Cockerill documentary "How to be Leader of the Opposition". Many of those who have made it back have never sat on the opposition benches and have no idea what it is all about. Those that will form even Rishi Sunak's interim Shadow Cabinet will need to understand just how bereft of support you are compared to the Government opposite.
The new leader's inheritance is further made difficult by the fact that the Conservative's Short Money allocation will be far less than that which Labour received. The formula is as follows the amount payable to qualifying parties is £21,438.33 for every seat won at the last General Election plus £42.82 for every 200 votes gained by the party. They will get £4,055,722.01 under that formula. Added to that is the Leader of the Opposition's costs 998,817.35. Overall they will get £5,054,539.36 compared to Labour in the last Parliament who got 7,689,924.53.
You will get the plush Westminster office, the government car, and second place to lay a wreath at the Cenotaph, but it will be five years of hard slog trying to rework your party and its policies to the point where are are credible once again. I am unconvinced it can be done in one hit and this could be a two or even three inings match, given the squeezes there have been on the Conservative vote from both ends.
25.8 %
14.5 %
37.1 %
🧥
1.6 %
12.9 %
:🤗
6.5 %
1.6 %
