[Youngian]

Seven Reform MPs? We’ll see, so be it if it happens in my constituency I’m not tactically voting for the Tories.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Think you're probably OK. The 7 are

Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leics
NW Norfolk
S Suffolk

[Tubby Isaacs]

There's an Opinium poll as well. The adjustments on it are quite striking (ie what they think will happen to don't knows).

[kreuzberger]

Franser Nelson, Yes, that Haribo-sucking, betweeded epitome of client journalism, has tried to call out the toxic lies of the tory campaign.

The line between truth, exaggeration and deceit is now very well policed by agencies that the Tories rightly empowered when in office. Respecting that line – and the intelligence of their potential voters – ought to be a given for any party seeking to fight this campaign with decency.

"Rightly empowered", is he having a breakdown?

[Andy McDandy]

Isn't journalism great? Just as long as everyone remembers the first draft of history stuff, and not the chip wrappers.

[mattomac]

One of the Reform seats is Exmouth and Exeter East. What's that? Lots of old people retired to Exmouth?

From someone I know from the area… the words he used was “bollocks”.

Some screwy outcomes in this, if they do pick up a second seat I reckon Ashfield wouldn’t be totally out.

Loathe them being in parliament but it would be slightly funny if they won somewhere else and lost Clacton, and looking at the figures it’s possible.

[Andy McDandy]

If that happens, at least every time Anderson spoke, we'd know the answer to "Who put 30p in the dickhead?".

[Youngian]

Think you're probably OK. The 7 are

Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leics
NW Norfolk
S Suffolk

The coastal seats are unsurprising but the two East Midland ones are curious. Plenty of seats with similar urban demographics but Reform will finish third or a poor second place.
Could it be that the rural and suburban parts of northern red wall towns are a bit posher and more expensive so tend towards Conservatives but would prefer a Blair or Starmer over Reform?
Whereas the many lovely parts of the East Midlands are much more affordable so are more Daily Mail lower middle class? Older demographic with high purchasing parity power more inclined towards nostalgia and racist hobby politics than the economy, stupid.

[Andy McDandy]

Mid Leicestershire is likely due to 2 things: first, all them industrial parks taking over and they're all Polish who work at them, eeeh; and going into Leicester to do some shopping and it were like bloody Timbuktu or Bombay or summat, eeeh.

[Youngian]

NW Norfolk is popular with people from Leicestershire who own swathes of static caravans that lie empty for seven months a year. But no housing for the youngsters because of the foreigners.

[Tubby Isaacs]

From someone I know from the area… the words he used was “bollocks”.

Some screwy outcomes in this, if they do pick up a second seat I reckon Ashfield wouldn’t be totally out.

Loathe them being in parliament but it would be slightly funny if they won somewhere else and lost Clacton, and looking at the figures it’s possible.

Reassured to hear it's bollocks about Exmouth and Exeter East. Seems like it's an unusual seat, which this poll doesn't seem to make much attempt to model. From Sam Freedman.

Exmouth and Exeter East
Current Holder: Conservative

Majority: 8,809, 16%

Prediction: Lean LD

A new constituency made up of three quarters of the old East Devon and wards from Exeter. As I noted in my “odd seats” piece it’s impossible to call due to the success of an independent candidate, Claire Wright, in consolidating the anti-Tory vote. That means Labour and the Lib Dems start with hardly any votes but with a lot to compete over. Enough to easily beat the Conservatives unless they end up splitting them. I’ve put it as Lib Dem simply because Wright has endorsed their candidate Paul Arnott, leader of the council. But it could go any of three ways. The Labour candidate is Helen Dallimore, a lawyer and business consultant. The Conservative is David Reed, a former Marine, and member of the GB skydiving squad. Currently working for BAE systems.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Could it be that the rural and suburban parts of northern red wall towns are a bit posher and more expensive so tend towards Conservatives but would prefer a Blair or Starmer over Reform?
Whereas the many lovely parts of the East Midlands are much more affordable so are more Daily Mail lower middle class? Older demographic with high purchasing parity power more inclined towards nostalgia and racist hobby politics than the economy, stupid.

"Nice suburban housing estates" were cited in 2019 as an explanation for these seats shifting to the Tories over time. As I keep saying, it's a sign of Corbyn uselessness that he couldn't appeal to this demographic much better, seeing that there'd presumably have been plenty of Remain voters about.

[Abernathy]

The spectre of a “Labour Dictatorship” that the Tories are now, in utter, utter desperation punting at voters is a bit weird, but interesting. For instance, it is apparently conceivable that Sutton Coldfield could elect its first Labour MP. I’ll say that again : Sutton Coldfield could elect its first Labour MP.

Rob Pocock, the Labour candidate, has kept up some great, diligent work over the years, and broke through in 2012 to win a council seat. But Andrew Mitchell, the Tory incumbent, seems to be in with the bricks. Or is he?

Interestingly, the Lib Dem candidate is John Sweeney, the journalist and eloquent critic of this Tory incarnation in particular. He could take enough votes from Mitchell to let Pocock in.

There is also a cunt (obviously) standing for Reform UK, who might do similar.

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections ... coldfield/

[davidjay]

The spectre of a “Labour Dictatorship” that the Tories are now, in utter, utter desperation punting at voters is a bit weird, but interesting. For instance, it is apparently conceivable that Sutton Coldfield could elect its first Labour MP. I’ll say that again : Sutton Coldfield could elect its first Labour MP.

Rob Pocock, the Labour candidate, has kept up some great, diligent work over the years, and broke through in 2012 to win a council seat. But Andrew Mitchell, the Tory incumbent, seems to be in with the bricks. Or is he?

Interestingly, the Lib Dem candidate is John Sweeney, the journalist and eloquent critic of this Tory incarnation in particular. He could take enough votes from Mitchell to let Pocock in.

There is also a cunt (obviously) standing for Reform UK, who might do similar.

https://whocanivotefor.co.uk/elections ... coldfield/

The most annoying thing about the Galloway Groupies in a couple of Birmingham seats is that their nuisance factor means we can't divert party workers to Sutton.

[slilley]

A bit of news from my part of the Sough constituency.

Yesterday I had a knock from the pro Gaza independent team. Said I wouldnt vote for them.

One shop is showing a poster for the Workers Party candidate " For Slough For Gaza For Britain" is the campaign slogan. Another has a poster for the independent pro Gaza candidate.

There is a hustings meeting I am going to at 6pm on Thursday. It is an all ticket affair (ticket is free), unlike previous ones I have been to which have been just turn up on the night.

Lastly someone has strung up a Palestinian flag from a lamp post around the corner from me.

[davidjay]

Mid Leicestershire is likely due to 2 things: first, all them industrial parks taking over and they're all Polish who work at them, eeeh; and going into Leicester to do some shopping and it were like bloody Timbuktu or Bombay or summat, eeeh.

Leicestershire is a weird, insular place where nobody ever seems to move either to or from.

[Watchman]

Your Leicestershire correspondent says “excuse me!’

[Abernathy]

I think it is worth at least noting that today is the anniversary of the day that Jo Cox MP was murdered by a Farage-supporting fascist.

Rest you in eternal peace, Jo. May the impending Tory wipeout serve as a tribute to your memory.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reform aren't winning Exmouth and Exeter East.

[Youngian]

A bit of news from my part of the Sough constituency.

Yesterday I had a knock from the pro Gaza independent team. Said I wouldnt vote for them.

One shop is showing a poster for the Workers Party candidate " For Slough For Gaza For Britain" is the campaign slogan. Another has a poster for the independent pro Gaza candidate.

Not sure if the ‘says it like it is’ Asian councillor I was canvassing with has the best tactic by telling his constituents who bring up Gaza to ‘go and live under Hamas.’ He reckons it’s not big issue among Pakistanis and that the WP are seen as a bunch of idiots. Hope so.