[Abernathy]

You know what ? I really don’t give a flying fuck about restricting, limiting, or reducing immigration. In fact, I think it is an unequivocally positive thing for the UK in multiple ways, and I’d actually welcome more of it. I do want to bring an end to human beings risking and sometimes losing their lives attempting to cross the channel in dangerous small boats, but I want it done by making sure there is a safer alternative for these people and by investing funds in processing asylum claims properly and promptly.

I’m not in the slightest concerned about any reasonable increase in income tax, VAT, or national insurance. Any such increases are invariably marginal for most taxpayers, and in the case of the majority of people paying their taxes via PAYE, are barely even noticeable. Like most people, I was never going to buy a fucking yacht anyway. I’m more than happy to pay any non-punitive increase in taxation if it enables my government properly to fund and re-build decent public services and help tackle inequality, and if it starts to restore the health service to where it should be, then bring it on, I say.

I absolutely hate the way that modern general elections have reached a point whereby any mention of the need to raise revenue via necessary increases in taxation has had to be considered anathema for any party aspiring to government.

What’s wrong with me?

[zuriblue]

What’s wrong with me?

Nothing

[Andy McDandy]

Me too.

Nobody's crossing the channel on a dinghy out of choice.

However many people are coming in each year is a) necessary with an ageing homegrown population, and b) evenly spread around, a mild swelling.

The lack of housing and infrastructure (including medical care) is due to policy and for want of a better term, greedy bastards.

I too have no issues with taxes, as long as I can feel their effect.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Apologies for the source, but this is quite literally the worst interview I've ever seen by someone in the Cabinet. CCHQ ought to have been able to find a seat for their own Party Chairman without having to impose him two days before the deadline. I doubt they forgot. I think they tried a load of constituencies and got told to fuck off every time.

Labour does more fixing than the Tories generally, but not for members of the Shadow Cabinet the day before the deadline.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Interesting point here. I'm as fixated with 1997 as the next man, but demographics are pretty different. Some of those impossible looking gains could be more on than we think. (Long way to go, of course).

Also brings out how dreadfully Corbyn performed. Basingstoke isn't particularly Kipperish but Labour lost by 14,000 last time.

[satnav]

On Newsnight local constituency members were complaining at the fact that the sitting MP had announced he was stepping down 7 month ago yet nothing was done to find a new candidate until last week. This sounds pretty poor given that a prospective candidate could have spent the last 6 ,months in the constituency establishing themselves prior to the election.

You have to wonder if the CCHQ deliberately kept the seat vacant just in case a cabinet minister needed a get out of jail card.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Even worse than that, it looks like Holden kept it free for himself. While others who may have fancied it were told to stick with seats they’ll very likely lose.

Some Tory MPs off the record saying they want Holden replaced as Chairman.

[Bones McCoy]

On Newsnight local constituency members were complaining at the fact that the sitting MP had announced he was stepping down 7 month ago yet nothing was done to find a new candidate until last week. This sounds pretty poor given that a prospective candidate could have spent the last 6 ,months in the constituency establishing themselves prior to the election.

You have to wonder if the CCHQ deliberately kept the seat vacant just in case a cabinet minister needed a get out of jail card.

The return of messiah Boris, perhaps?

[mattomac]

Interesting point here. I'm as fixated with 1997 as the next man, but demographics are pretty different. Some of those impossible looking gains could be more on than we think. (Long way to go, of course).

Also brings out how dreadfully Corbyn performed. Basingstoke isn't particularly Kipperish but Labour lost by 14,000 last time.

The problem with some of the analysis of 1997 is it misses massive changes in some places, Bournemouth is an example, Cornwall another effectively Labour’s university policy changed places not to mention house prices and throw in where the Lib Dem’s haven’t been able to gain back a foothold.

Some places will need to be won for a majority but not every Blair seat. Cornwall for example I’ve met 50% of the Labour MPs that place has had.

It should have 2, maybe even 3 and some rumours of an outside chance of 4 on current polling.

[Yug]

Well, the Cuntservatives have already lost in Rotherham

The Conservatives have not fielded a candidate for the General Election in one South Yorkshire constituency.

When nominations closed earlier, the party's chosen candidate for Rotherham, Laila Cunningham, was marked as "nomination withdrawn"...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c877068x382o.amp

Oh dear, how sad etc

[slilley]

I watched a bit of GMB with Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire. The main subject was Sunak disappearing from the media for two days and the fact that D Day dodging was still still resonating massively.

A middle weekend of the campaign and the Prime Minister is holed up in his constituency trying to hold his own seat.

Hunt has also disappeared without trace as he is stuck in Godalming fighting a last ditch stand to hold that seat.

Talking to a friend in Epsom again last night and whilst he is campaigning for Labour, his view is that is could go Liberal Democrat. they have had their candidate in place for two years unlike Labour and have been working the seat hard since then. It is looking as though the A3 corridor from Wimbledon down to parts of Hampshire will go yellow. Remember only when the Lib Dems won Guildford in 2005 has the county of Surrey returned anything other than a Conservative MP. This time around it is looking feasible that a good sized chunk will go yellow.

We both agreed we have never known such a ramshackle gaffe prone campaign as the one the Conservatives are running. the latest incident is Richard Holden's interview with Sky. Another rip roaring success. Not. They are making Michael Foot in 1983 look professional.

Tuesday will be interesting as it is their manifesto launch. Will it be all Sunak and no one else or wil lthe rest of the cabinet be whipped from their seats to appear? Also how many questions will Sunak take and on what subjects?My guess is that D Day will crop up again, as it is now emerging that it wasnt just the ITV interview he came back for but to sign off on the manifesto.

[Youngian]

Under May and Johnson, the Tories decided the socially liberal right of centre blue wall voters (that Osborne and Cameron assiduously wooed) were expendable. In favour of its new Brexit Red wall-nativist shire coalition. We aren’t psychics on this board predicting that would fall apart like a leper in a wind tunnel.

They are making Michael Foot in 1983 look professional.

Not in doubt that Corbyn’s team ran better campaigns.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The problem with some of the analysis of 1997 is it misses massive changes in some places, Bournemouth is an example, Cornwall another effectively Labour’s university policy changed places not to mention house prices and throw in where the Lib Dem’s haven’t been able to gain back a foothold.

Some places will need to be won for a majority but not every Blair seat. Cornwall for example I’ve met 50% of the Labour MPs that place has had.

It should have 2, maybe even 3 and some rumours of an outside chance of 4 on current polling.

I'm assuming you met Candy Atherton, right?

I hadn't thought of demographics being particularly helpful to Labour in Cornwall, but you're probably right. Also should be a fair bit of Brexit unwinding there too.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sarah Olney taking one for the team here.

[davidjay]

The best odds you can get on a Labour majority now are 1/16. Even a coalition of any sort is at least 25/1.

[Youngian]

Andrea Jenkyn throws in her lot with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party. If you voted for this certifiable lunatic over Ed Balls, you don’t deserve to live.
https://x.com/thereclaimparty/status/17 ... Dkr8MiQKBg

[Tubby Isaacs]

Starmer has been the MP for 9 years, not 23, and for 4 years of that has been Leader of the Opposition, plus another 4 in the Shadow Cabinet.

But yeah, "politics is broken".

[Youngian]

Was he fixing politics with Jacob Zuma? He resigned over the failure to investigate a corruption scandal but moved to London to do some fixing.

Andrew Feinstein, a former member of parliament for the South African African National Congress (ANC)

Oof

[Tubby Isaacs]

Andrea Jenkyn throws in her lot with Laurence Fox’s Reclaim Party. If you voted for this certifiable lunatic over Ed Balls, you don’t deserve to live.
https://x.com/thereclaimparty/status/17 ... Dkr8MiQKBg

We're in personal manifesto territory again, I see. Only 4 Tory MPs are mad enough to sign up for this.

She's also still running as a "proud Brexiter".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Another Zinger from Feinstein here.