[Tubby Isaacs]

Kemi all over her brief here. Or rather all over the place on it.

This isn't the minister for roads being put on the spot on trans rights. It's the equalities minister, and a particularly voluble one.

[Crabcakes]

I'm beginning to think that Truss may well be mentally ill.

This isn't gaslighting - she seems to have an absolute disconnect between her view of reality and everyone else's. Either that or she knows that when she drops the act, the cash dries up.

She’s gone full Trump, only (I assume) without the obvious cognitive decline. She believes her hype, oblivious to the fact the only people ever hyping her up had their own agenda and she was just their useful idiot.

Either that, or admitting her failure to herself will essentially cause her to mentally implode so this in an almost subconscious self-defence mechanism.

[slilley]

Was talking to a friend who has been canvassing in various parts of Epsom & Ewell for Labour. Normally a thankless task, after all Grayling managed a majority of over 20,000 without much trouble. However, this time having canvassed in 4 different parts of the constituency covering different demographics from the two most deprived areas, to typical suburban, to an area wth young professional types, he has noticed at best no real appetite for the Conservatiives, and in parts open hostility to the Government and the chaos of the last few years. Both the Labour Party and Lib Dems think they might have a chance and with the Conservatives having selected Mhairi Fraser as their candidate they could be right. She is a Liz truss supporter and a big Donald Trump MAGA type.

Now Epsom has always returned a Conservative MP, but it does seem as though this time around they are going to have to fight to take the seat. A sign of the times and how far they have fallen.

[davidjay]

This really is the best they can come up with:

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1797542007134662849

[Youngian]

Tory PPC in near-by Carshalton is keeping himself amused mocking his own party’s woeful attack ads. What an effin shower.

[Bones McCoy]

There IS a downside to Trump's conviction.

Farage dropping hints he may stand as a candidate.

Prepare the dolphins.

[Bones McCoy]

Having seen the rubbish Tories are posting on social media.

I wonder what horrors they're sending out as targeted posts to identified demographics.
I understand that's Levido's strong game.

[Crabcakes]

There IS a downside to Trump's conviction.

Farage dropping hints he may stand as a candidate.

Prepare the dolphins.

If he stands, I am convinced it is because of the woman on QT the other week who mocked him for his 7 failed previous attempts. And even then his only hope will be to stand in Clacton - an absolute fucking shit-hole full of miserable pensioners who can’t afford Frinton and lagered-up twats who can’t afford Benidorm (I am from down the road in Essex, so I hereby claim local’s freedom to slag off where I’m from). And also a place he wouldn’t normally be seen dead in, full of people he loathes, who he will do precisely nothing for if elected.

[Youngian]

Go to Clacton for dog walks on the beaches but barred from the pubs for having a four legged friend. Jaywick’s worse for wear main boozer however couldn’t be more welcoming. And Frinton had become less snooty than I recall back in the day. Yeh Clacton, UKIP land.

[Spoonman]

"National Service" is proving popular...

[davidjay]

The most predictable response of the campaign:

https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1797332094990831616

[Abernathy]

New YouGov MRP poll just announced : projection is for Labour majority of 194 !

[Spoonman]

New YouGov MRP poll just announced : projection is for Labour majority of 194 !

Ey'yup!

Labour could be on course for 194-seat Commons majority - YouGov poll

Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats - the biggest for 100 years - according to the first polling projection by YouGov since the election was called.

Labour could be on course to win a historic landslide, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.

It would be the highest number of seats of any party at any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three polling projections, known as MRPs, which suggests the United Kingdom is on the cusp of a major redrawing of the political landscape.

The projection shows a historic Labour landslide, bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election were being held right now.

The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 221 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries. This is the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-could ... l-13147370

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour now 17 points up with the pollster most favourable to the Tories.

[Youngian]

The Big Short: Rishi Sunak. Labour social media team on fire today.
https://x.com/uklabour/status/179769179 ... Dkr8MiQKBg

[Youngian]

Farage runs away from basic questions about how much Brexit is costing each person and the nation. Now ask Sunak
https://x.com/thenewsagents/status/1797 ... Dkr8MiQKBg

[Malcolm Armsteen]

That YouGov MRP poll...
Survation agrees.

Survation MRP: Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority
Our first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.



The MRP analysis is based on online and telephone collected interviews of 30,044 people undertaken by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain with fieldwork carried out between 22nd May- 2nd June 2024.



Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time – giving more weight to recently collected data.



Our probabilistic approach estimates the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregates them to give us an idea of how the election would play out. For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, we allocate 2 seats to them. This approach indicates that Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 487 seats, the Conservatives second with 71 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 43 seats and the SNP with 26 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two to three seats, while there is a possibility that Reform could win three.



Many of these seats are direct contests between Labour and the Conservatives. While Labour is currently leading in 505 seats in terms of our average estimated vote share, the Conservatives fall close second within 5% of the Labour vote in 50 of those, while they come second within 10% of Labour’s vote share in a further 55 of those. Many seats remain in play, and we estimate that 126 seats would be decided by a margin of 5% or less if the election tomorrow.



The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.

[Abernathy]

I take it we’re all watching the big debate ?

Sunak is like a cornered rat. Desperately accusing Starmer, falsely, of intending to raise every single person’s taxes by £2,000, and he is going to be cutting taxes and handing out cash like a pissed up sailor.

Keir Starmer so far, somehow, keeping his cool. No real zinger yet from him.

[Youngian]

Hot shot barrister prosecuting a cheap crook.

[Youngian]

You can almost see Sunak being prepped by a team that still think it’s 1989. Labour =tax and repeat ad infinitum.