[Tubby Isaacs]

He's needed for a leadership challenge, so they tell me.

[Cyclist]

Barely adult. But I suppose quite interesting that Lavery sees this lot as "own troops".

Would these be the "own troops" who spent 5 years telling "Red Tories" and "Centrist melts" to "fuck off and join the Tories"?

[Youngian]

If he were feeling mischievous, Lavery could cause a lot of headaches for Starmer simply by quitting as an MP and forcing a by-election in yet another Brexity Red Wall seat, especially if he then stood under a 'Real Labour' banner or some such bollocks.

I suspect the good people of Wansback would be glad to see the back of him, regardless.

Dave Nellist came close to winning by doing that but he was a respected MP.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I hadn't realised how well Nellist did. Wow. I knew Terry Fields hadn't come all that close.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well, well, Looks like the Tories aren't going to announce 3% NHS increase after all.

Well done, the "Kieth" crowd for going to town on that one.

[mattomac]

In other Starmer-related news.......

Earlier today, whilst perusing the latest reviews on a music blog, I came across an instance of somebody disparaging the slightly bland new Manic Street Preachers single as being "an absolute Keir Starmer of a song".

Which rather begs the question - what on earth would an absolute Jeremy Corbyn of a song sound like?

Or even more intriguingly, an absolute Ed Miliband of song?

Wasn’t much of a fan of Orwellian but I quite liked the one they sent out on Friday.

It’s the old centrist Mondeo man, not very good but seemingly good enough to win three elections.

Though we could have stuck with a guy who lost 2…

[davidjay]

I hadn't realised how well Nellist did. Wow. I knew Terry Fields hadn't come all that close.

Nellist was a) a respected constituency MP and b) had charm/charisma/call it what you like.

[Nigredo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57918823

Isolating due to COVID.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I hadn't realised how well Nellist did. Wow. I knew Terry Fields hadn't come all that close.

Nellist was a) a respected constituency MP and b) had charm/charisma/call it what you like.

He must have been to do that well. I think Terry Fields was popular too though. Perhaps there was more of a backlash in Liverpool because of the council?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Precedent, apparently. Quite what awkward precedent is set by expelling a bunch who openly supported Galloway v Labour in Batley and Spen, God knows. Can you imagine this lot in government? Don't do that, it'll be a precedent.

Can you spot a glaring omission. This chap can.

[Youngian]

I hadn't realised how well Nellist did. Wow. I knew Terry Fields hadn't come all that close.

Nellist was a) a respected constituency MP and b) had charm/charisma/call it what you like.

He must have been to do that well. I think Terry Fields was popular too though. Perhaps there was more of a backlash in Liverpool because of the council?

Terry Fields was one of the only Labour MPs in 1983 who increased the Labour majority in a constituency. Benn presented this as evidence that Labour tanked because it wasn't left wing enough. Field's slogan 'Worker's MP on a worker's wage' struck a chord in a city left stranded without a pot to piss in. The sort of slogan Farage would use if he wasn't a greedy self-seving crook.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Fields was an ex-fireman too, so "authentic" in a way that wasn't always true of the hard left in other places. I think it's Alwyn Turner who said that about Terry Fields, wasn't it? Turner is excellent, but it was a new constituency so hard to make comparisons. IIRC Benn mentions Eric Heffer who doubled his majority on the back of a big Con-Lib switch. Certainly a relatively good performance by Heffer (only a slight fall in his own vote), but not a big vindication.

John Redwood made the same argument about how he'd done better than lots of Tory MPs in 1997.

[Youngian]

John Redwood made the same argument about how he'd done better than lots of Tory MPs in 1997.

Would have thought Wokingham would be a Blair loving place (C1s and C2s doing fine in the tech sector). Perhaps it wasn't then.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Were tech workers particularly non-Tory in 1997? I would think that a successful and well off manager in tech wasn't that different to the same sort of person in another industry. And Berkshire generally was very Tory then. Labour won both Reading seats by under 4,000. They won Dover by 11,700.

[Youngian]

Yes they're more Gareth Cheeseman than Tony Benn around those parts but Blair won by attracting Tories. The sector is younger, more qualified and less white (not spectacularly so) than many others. Not an immigrant and statue moaning demographic.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Thinking of that Survation poll on the other thread.

4 points off the Tory score from last time applied to Wokingham puts Tory Redwood on 45 and the Lib Dems (give them the same voteshare as last time) about 37. You're then into how good the electorate are at tactical voting, if they want to do it, plus constituency specific stuff. Would appear to be some scope for some Chesham and Amersham style Lib Dem "not those houses there".

I'm wondering too about the dustbin vote which Bozo got from UKIP/the Brexit Party. Does he keep that after 5 years?

[Tubby Isaacs]

You are not reading this wrong. It's that mad.

"We've caught him! Take the mask off!"

"It's (gasp) Sir Keir Starmer!"

"You got me. I just wanted to fuck over Liverpool for no reason at all after it voted for my preferred candidate for mayor! Me, Peter Mandelson, the Tories and UNESCO were all in on it. And I'd have got away with it if it weren't for you meddlesome Unite top brass!"

"Scooby Dooby Beckett!"

[Youngian]

I'm wondering too about the dustbin vote which Bozo got from UKIP/the Brexit Party. Does he keep that after 5 years?

Layla Moran is busy dog whistling anti-vaxxers. LDs had a lot of success in Cheltenham with this demographic when they ran ‘a local man’ against John Taylor.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Howard's got more. Here he goes full Alan Partridge v Peter Baxendale-Thomas.

It's Martin Forde, not Michael Forde.

What's "divergence of funds"?

"I think your silence speaks volumes, Mr Michael Forde QC!"

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm wondering too about the dustbin vote which Bozo got from UKIP/the Brexit Party. Does he keep that after 5 years?

Layla Moran is busy dog whistling anti-vaxxers. LDs had a lot of success in Cheltenham with this demographic when they ran ‘a local man’ against John Taylor.

Swing in Cheltenham was only a bit bigger than Bath down the road, but there was probably some effect. Cheltenham doesn't seem to have much of a dustbin vote- UKIP only got up to 7.1%, and in 2019, Con-LD got over 94% between them.