[Youngian]

Bipartisan Andy is somewhat an outlier in his party. He's tipped as a future Conservative leader by err no one.

Two of England's mayors have outlined their proposals to revive rail in the Midlands and North post-HS2, insisting they "won't accept a do-nothing scenario".

Greater Manchester's mayor, Andy Burnham, and his West Midlands counterpart, Andy Street, teamed up after the government axed the northern leg of the high speed rail project last year, and are trying to find an alternative to improve services between the cities with the help of the private sector. https://news.sky.com/story/west-midland ... 2-13066170

[Tubby Isaacs]

Anything in this? Not the most consistently honest journalist, but nor is it ovious why he'd make this up. I thought that it was a mistake to deselect Driscoll and that he'd win on name recognition and pick up some "sticking it to the man" voters, as Galloway seems to have done. But maybe I;m wrong.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Blackpool South by election is being held on the same day as local elections, so I'll put it here. I haven't read the piece and its only a prediction. But Jez fans sniff a plot.

As a guess, 2019 is included because it was the last election, and 2015 is considered more relevant that 2017 because there was no Kipper challenge to speak of in 2017.

[Andy McDandy]

In 2017 the combined Tory/Kip vote wouldn't have been enough to oust Gordon Marsden.

As for him, aside from him nominating Corbyn in 2015, he was PPS to those avowed Trots Tessa Jowell and Derry Irvine, and served in several shadow cabinet roles under Ed Miliband. Quite what Paul H is arguing, I have no idea.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He just sees the chart and thinks they're "airbrushing brilliant Jez from history". As I expected, the reason for including 2015 is made perfectly clear in the article (though perhaps it's paywalled).

I include the 2015 figures in the chart to illustrate that in Blackpool South, as in much of northern England, those shock Tory gains from Labour in 2019 – routing the so-called workers' party from the so-called Red Wall – came as a consequence of the Tories “uniting the right”.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Interesting by-election.

This is in the Harrogate and Knaresborough area. The Tories got slightly more votes in the 2022 local elections, and have got a small swing from the Lib Dems here. But I'd be surprised if a lot of those Greens didn't vote Lib Dem in the general election.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Surprised by the poll.

I want Street to get closer than this- he's sane, not obnoxious, and seems to get his head down. If he does as badly as all the rest, then what incentive is there for other Tories to be like him? Might as well go full GB News.

[Abernathy]

I want Street to get closer than this- he's sane, not obnoxious, and seems to get his head down.

With great respect, Tubby one, fer gawd's sake give your head a wobble. Street is a Tory. He chose and made his Tory bed, and he has to fucking well lie in it. If that means getting slaughtered in the mayoral election, then so be it. No room for misplaced sympathy here, boy.

Oh, and not obnoxious? I'd just remind you that Street used to do BUMSEX with Michael Fabricant.

Mindbleach is available at the door.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, I know who he is, and I don't want him to win. I expect he'd have done better running as an Independent after being let down over HS2.

But I'd rather wake up to headlines like "Street outperforms party but loses" than "Ben Houchen wins again in Red Wall"

[Tubby Isaacs]

Talking of Houchen, has there been a decent poll yet? The one a while back was not decent, by all accounts.

I expect he'll win because he won by so much last time, and got off very lightly with his corruption/mismanagement. I know Brexiters have swung strongly against the government, but he's had more to announce than most Red Wall Tories. He's standing in front of a load of diggers and saying "this will be the freeport". Your Red Wall MP is standing there in front of a derelict building saying "this could be a cinema".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Street is polling a bit better than his party in the Midlands, by the look of it. But if the Tories are doing this badly, he has no chance.

[Andy McDandy]

Oh, and not obnoxious? I'd just remind you that Street used to do BUMSEX with Michael Fabricant.

Mindbleach is available at the door.

You'd want something to cling to, and it'd have to be the wig.

[davidjay]

A mayoral poll that if it's accurate would make me very surprised and even happier.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com ... pril-2024/

[Abernathy]

Street has been running a desperate and hostile attack-based campaign that smells strongly of fear and is undoubtedly a reflection of the desperation the Tories, particularly in the West Midlands, are feeling, like cornered rats. They've taken to referring to Richard Parker as "Labour's novice candidate" - seriously, is that really going to impress even one wavering erstwhile Tory ?

It has got "defeat" running through it like the word "Blackpool" through a stick of rock.

He is going down (oo-err), he knows it, and, sorry Tubbs, but he fucking deserves it.

[Bones McCoy]

Yeah, I know who he is, and I don't want him to win. I expect he'd have done better running as an Independent after being let down over HS2.

But I'd rather wake up to headlines like "Street outperforms party but loses" than "Ben Houchen wins again in Red Wall"

This is the age of tweets, soundbites and blipverts.
Nobody (well none except Prof' Curtice and a few others) will recall such details.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, it's an unlikely headline, I admit.

[davidjay]

Street has been running a desperate and hostile attack-based campaign that smells strongly of fear and is undoubtedly a reflection of the desperation the Tories, particularly in the West Midlands, are feeling, like cornered rats. They've taken to referring to Richard Parker as "Labour's novice candidate" - seriously, is that really going to impress even one wavering erstwhile Tory ?

It has got "defeat" running through it like the word "Blackpool" through a stick of rock.

He is going down (oo-err), he knows it, and, sorry Tubbs, but he fucking deserves it.

He deserves it but as I've said before, Labour's campaign has been virtually invisible. I wonder if they're saving up for the Big One.

[mattomac]

I assume it depends on the areas.

They might be pushing far more in seats with council elections as well.

As for Street it seems he is doing better but the Tory brand is absolutely dire, Houchen only probably survives due to his majority.

[Youngian]

Labour youthquake here at last. Courtesy of boring old fuddy-duddy Sir Keir. Worrying how high the far right poll with the under 30s in some European countries but not here thank goodness.

[Crabcakes]

I imagine this will have the Corbynites fuming, because it’s always been the claim that their man is the one who captures the youth vote. Whereas it turns out what they really want is anyone not a Tory in the first instance, and someone who won’t use them as a convenient scapegoat on the other. And also someone who actually has the ability to get into office to do something for them.

I suspect a lot of young people being forced back into commuting to underpaid jobs with colossal rent bills, off the back of cobbled together, unfounded Covid-era home schooling, haven’t forgotten which party consistently and repeatedly fucked them over to keep an older, richer cohort happy.