[mattomac]

Thought it might be worth setting up this thread.

Mayors, PCC and maybe even a parliamentary by election will all take place.

First prediction is in and it’s rather expected …

This would be about half of the seats they are defending.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 8c86dfc04d

[Samanfur]

My husband went out shopping for sundries on the day that there were mass resignations from Johnson’s cabinet, and came back with popcorn.

I suspect he may do that again.

[Bones McCoy]

To slightly mangle Taggart's classic line

There's gonna be a murder

[Tubby Isaacs]

The prediction is the Tories losing half their seats. They start from a high base (2021). Council by-election performances haven't been all bad by any means, but there've been a lot of big swings to Lib Dems, some even after Ed Davey took the rap with the Tory papers for the Post Office scandal" You'd expect Lib Dems to do well in those elections in southern district councils, even if they hold a surprising number of seats in them already.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Unit ... _elections

[Andy McDandy]

On that, I noticed Littlejohn and Wootton both recently sneering at Ed Davey's apparent lack of name recognition. In the case of the post office, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

[davidjay]

The interesting one will be the West Midlands mayor. Andy Street has a high profile, based mainly on having a hi-viz and a hard hat on call ready to dash to any available photo opportunity, and distances himself from his party on a weekly basis. Labour, on the other hand, don't seem particularly arsed

[Watchman]

In the past he has been non-Tory in his statements, I suppose the best thing I can say is, he’s not Houchen

[Andy McDandy]

The line that's taking shape is that there's "no love" for Labour, and they're just benefiting from not being the Tories. I think that'll be played up a lot in the coming months, and after the GE - the idea that it's a caretaker administration until the Tories can get their shit together.

[Tubby Isaacs]

About that.

To be fair Mr Hodgson may have got carried away by the 4% swing to the Tories since the previous year's locals. Shame Labour were still 14% ahead (where they pretty much stayed, despite "what we're hearing on the doorstep").

[Andy McDandy]

In Russ Jones's new book, he highlights how "I don't see/recognise..." has become quite the hallmark of the Tories.

[mattomac]

The line that's taking shape is that there's "no love" for Labour, and they're just benefiting from not being the Tories. I think that'll be played up a lot in the coming months, and after the GE - the idea that it's a caretaker administration until the Tories can get their shit together.

It will be a bit problematic if the majority is in high double or even triple digits.

[slilley]

It is a sign of the Conservative collapse that having been elected in 2019 with an 80 majority, we are considering a Labour majority of100 plus.

If they think that they will return to power after 5 years of a Starmer government, they should probably think again. After the clown fest that has been the last five years, a spell of Starmer being boring is something many are looking forward to.

For the Conservatives to return to office in 2029, the Labour government would have to be even more incompetent than what we have now, and looking at how Labour are preparing for government I am not sure that would happen.

The next Conservative leader should prepare though obviously not say it for a two innings match,

[Malcolm Armsteen]

The next Conservative leader should prepare though obviously not say it for a two innings match,

I'd prefer to think baseball.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I wonder if the local elections might be a bit better for Sunak than expected. Going to be very easy to think "fuck it, I'll vote Green, Labour don't need my vote". That actually might a nice wake up call.

[Abernathy]

“A nice wake up call “ ? For whom ?

[Malcolm Armsteen]

If you mean Labour we don't need any 'wake up' calls - there is no complacency amongst Labour's leadership or members.

[slilley]

I wonder if the local elections might be a bit better for Sunak than expected. Going to be very easy to think "fuck it, I'll vote Green, Labour don't need my vote". That actually might a nice wake up call.

Dont forget that much of England is voting. There are local council elections, mayoral elections, Police & Crime Comissioner elections, so it will be quite a test of opinion. I can see the opposition parties scrapping hard to make a bold statement of intent beofre the big one. This is like the last warm up game before a World Cup. A good result putting your team in good heart for the important stuff ahead is important.

The opposition parties will know afterwards where their best chances of unseating Conservative MPs are. The Conservatives are defending seats won in 2020 when Johnson was still popular so a high-ish watermark. Since then they have been trounced in every set of local elections, and look like they will in these meaning come the General Election the activist base will demoralised and there will be a lot of ex local councillors who lost their seats due to national failings etc.

A bad set of result for Sunak will see the knives sharpening again along with the writing paper being deployed as some MPs who see they have nothing to lose but one last roll of the dice and yet another new leader. A bit like a struggling football team sacking the manager again with 10 games to go in the hope the new bod will rouse the troops enough to stave off the inevitable.

Simon

[Andy McDandy]

Also, on the matter of those local councillors, they'll be angry and they'll still have their local media contacts. Local character explains why Sunak cost them their place may be gracing a lot of freesheets come mid-May.

[Tubby Isaacs]

“A nice wake up call “ ? For whom ?

Voters who think Labour/ Lib Dem doesn't need their vote.

Not everywhere is Bristol Central/ Brighton Pavillion where you can vote Green to stick it to neoliberals. Do that in Welwyn and Hatfield, and you get Grant Shapps back. Do that in Godalming and Ash, and you get Jeremy Hunt back.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The interesting one will be the West Midlands mayor. Andy Street has a high profile, based mainly on having a hi-viz and a hard hat on call ready to dash to any available photo opportunity, and distances himself from his party on a weekly basis. Labour, on the other hand, don't seem particularly arsed

Street's more like the sort of politician you get, even now, in American state politics, with a profile different to their national party. Split ticketing was much more common in the past than now, but you still get things like Republicans winning a Senate seat in Maine (Susan Collins) or the Democrats winning the governorship of Kentucky (Andy Beshear).

This drives the party who think they should be winning mad. But these politicians are generally popular, and with incumbency hard to shift. The Democrats spent shedloads trying to defeat Collins, but she won fairly easily.

The point of my rambling is that perhaps Labour are right not to be busting a gut trying to take out Street. Though I realise it's not great for you as a Labour supporting local.