[Bones McCoy]

It's time to consider how Reform overtaking the Conservatives might shift the game.

[davidjay]

It's time to consider how Reform overtaking the Conservatives might shift the game.

I don't think they will. The Tories have still got an efficient electoral machine.

[Youngian]

These voters will drift back to the Conservatives at the GE, they hate Labour more than they love Tice and his culture war drivel.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, there was a lot of "never voting for the Tories again" among Kippers in 2015. Lots of them did. Cameron did have a more Kipper-friendly card to campaign on than Sunak does now, mind.

[Bones McCoy]

Yeah, there was a lot of "never voting for the Tories again" among Kippers in 2015. Lots of them did. Cameron did have a more Kipper-friendly card to campaign on than Sunak does now, mind.

Yeah: Cameron - I acted the complete spazzer for remain - "hey chaps Vote 'in' or I can't go skiing four times a year, Yah!".

[Bones McCoy]

Let's consider the alternative options>

What happens if Falange and Ticks repeat the UKIP scam.
Run down their campaign at the last minute and recommend "Vote Tory".

How many gammons are really that gullible.

[satnav]

It might be interesting to see how the Reform Party approach the local elections and mayoral elections. If they throw the kitchen sink at the local elections they might pick up plenty of seats and a bit of momentum. But if they spend too much on the local elections they could end up being pretty skint if the general election takes place within a couple of months of local elections.

[Tubby Isaacs]

One thing that doesn't cost money and gets lots of publicity for Reform is getting Tory candidates to switch. The only high profile one I can remember is in the Greater Manchester mayor election. Don't know of any sitting councillors switching, come to think of it. This is all underwhelming. The Parliamentary Conservative Party is a mess, but they seem to be holding together at councillor level (even if the candidates don't always trumpet the fact they're Conservatives), and they have the odd good by-election result, especially in Scotland.

But a national bunch of local elections inevitably focuses on Sunak, Hunt etc, and they're not popular. Hard to see that they don't lose loads of council seats, which won't help morale. If you were a Tory councillor who'd built up a personal vote through hard work but got swept away by the unpopularity of the MPs, would you feel like bothering in the General Election? Reform, especially with Farage, might make hay with that.

[Andy McDandy]

Councillors typically live in the ward they represent, and don't have the shielding from voters that MPs have. Also, regardless of party, the last few years have been hard for local government and even if levelling up money is easier to get if you're a Tory, it's still an exercise in begging and pleading. At national level you can afford to be a bit abstract, but at local level people don't care about general trends in demographics and global economics. They just want their bins emptied.

[Youngian]

Tories are now virtually a post UKIP party so why leave for another post UKIP with no seats?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Personal reasons? Attention, nice feeling of "Fuck off, Sunak".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Political genius Rishi extending the Parliament when he doesn't have much to fill that Parliamentary time with. I'm sceptical that the smoking ban is going to make it past Tory MPs. Labour will back it, but is he going to want that?

6 months of pointing at potholes is going to drag.

[Andy McDandy]

I think Angela Rayner had a point about him wanting one last summer with his company helicopter.

[davidjay]

Let's consider the alternative options>

What happens if Falange and Ticks repeat the UKIP scam.
Run down their campaign at the last minute and recommend "Vote Tory".

How many gammons are really that gullible.

All of them.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That would certainly help, but probably not as much as I first thought.

"I'll vote Sunak to stick it to corporate greed", isn't an obvious one. Nor is "I'll vote Sunak for lower immigration", come to think of it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Prime Minister- "I can't think of anything I want to do".

I did forget about the football regulator, and that could be a good and popular thing. Again, though what about his party? Does your average shire Tory even have a proper football team in the constituency? I think the biggest in my constituency (and Sir Bill Wiggin's) is Ledbury Swifts. Or it might be Leominster Town, I have to check.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Actually, I think it's Ledbury Town.

There are some better teams in the Hereford and South Herefordshire constituency next door, in fairness.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Arise, Sir Philip Davies.

[Youngian]

Aren’t they a bit rough non posh rugby towns around those parts?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Herefordshire? Not really, I don't think. That's more of a Gloucestershire thing.. Gloucester itself, obviously, some places like Lydney in the Forest to the West, and to some extent Stroud to the South. East Maybe Ross on Wye in Herefordshire is like that, I don't know. The roughest Herefordshire town in is probably Leominster, where I've only been once, and it seemed like a football (on TV) town.