[Oboogie]

The election is going to be on Thursday October 10. Apparently. The Independent has had a tip-off,

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 13281.html

Expected general election date revealed after Rishi Sunak rules out May poll

Point 1: Sunak did not rule out May. He ruled out a GE on May 2nd. They are not the same. One of our PCC's told me that they were briefed weeks ago to prepare for an election on either May 23rd or October 24th, so Labour are preparing for May.
Point 2: On past performance, Sunak ruling out May 2nd means there's a 50/50 chance it's going to be May 2nd.
Point 3: The latest date a May 2nd election needs to be called is March 26th (25 working days before polling day), so there's still plenty of time for Sunak to reverse ferret.
Point 4: What would be the advantage to the Tories of leaking the genuine election date to the Independent? I can certainly see the advantage to the Tories in deceiving opposition parties into believing that the election is still six months away.

[Crabcakes]

It’s also hilarious that they think Labour not ‘being ready’ is in any way going to reverse their fortunes. The last 2 Tory GE campaigns have been disastrous, and Johnson only got in because of the twin boosters of Brexit holding his coalition together and Corbyn blasting apart any non-right wing alliance as well as pushing some people to vote Tory (plus an over-egotistical Lib Dem stance). This time they have the terminally fractured coalition, their promises of the previous election have all been shown to be the absolute lies we all knew they were, and they’ve made life worse for almost everyone bar a very small super-elite.

That, plus another terrible campaign, plus an actually competent opposition leader and it doesn’t honestly matter even if they did manage to spring a ‘surprise’* date.

*and even then, it’s not like it’s not going to be some time in 9 months whatever. Unless Labour were insane they’ll have some background readiness on the go at all times because they know it’s coming.

[davidjay]

I wonder if they might call it for May 9th in an attempt to stretch Labour's resources over two election dates and hope for a low turnout.

[Abernathy]

No, I think Crabbers is correct. I’ve been saying for some time now that a very considerable majority of the electorate (as reflected in virtually every opinion poll) has long ago passed the point where they decided that they have simply had enough of 14 years of incompetence, graft, corruption and lies, and are resolved on kicking the Tories out whenever the election is called. Nothing, absolutely nothing, is going to weaken that resolve now. There will not be a low turnout for this general election even if Sunak goes later in May.

There is certainly absolutely nothing that Sunak, vying with Johnson & Truss for the title of worst PM of the five we’ve had since 2010, can do to prevent that, and must know this.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Makes sense that they avoid the party conference season. That would be a GB News-Farage disaster for them.

[Abernathy]

Quite an interesting article here speculating about possible election dates.

https://labourlist.org/2024/03/when-ne ... losest-yet

[Abernathy]

I think that a move to depose Sunak as leader may just be imminent. And I think it will prompt Sunak to press the nuclear button and immediately call the election.

[Andy McDandy]

Certain people protesting just a bit too much?

And yes, Gove. Always fucking Gove. Strange to think that he's the last one standing of that 2010 lineup (discounting Cameron).

Although, given just how much of a cunt he is, not that strange.

[kreuzberger]

I think that a move to depose Sunak as leader may just be imminent. And I think it will prompt Sunak to press the nuclear button and immediately call the election.

Does Ricky have the stones for causing a brawl beyond the rarefied environs and endless cans of Coca Cola in his own constituency?

[mattomac]

Well they briefed the summer and then ruled it out an hour later.

Meanwhile the polls record some higher Labour numbers and numbers worse than Truss for Sunak. (Average).

[Abernathy]

Luke Akehurst’s blog entries of NEC reports are always interesting. The assessment is that, judging by their recent substantially increased digital and social media campaigning activity suggests that the Tories were actually geared up for the election on May 2, but bottled it. Could still be literally any time.

http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is Rishi waiting for Survation? Here we go.

And the Lib Dem tally looks a bit low. So it could get worse. But not bad enough. We'd still be stuck with our Tory MP.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Details here. Labour only 1% behind in my seat. Think that's optimistic, because the Greens will get more votes than this poll suggests.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

[Tubby Isaacs]

Another nice slice from that poll.

As others observe, this doesn't quite fit with the "London dystopia under Muslim dictator".

[mattomac]

Luke Akehurst’s blog entries of NEC reports are always interesting. The assessment is that, judging by their recent substantially increased digital and social media campaigning activity suggests that the Tories were actually geared up for the election on May 2, but bottled it. Could still be literally any time.

http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/

Yeah it seems pretty obvious, they were expecting a budget bounce and it didn’t materialise so effectively they scrapped it. He wasn’t ruling out a summer one again yesterday.

[Abernathy]

It would appear that Sunak is pinning his, and his party’s hopes on the economy picking up enough to persuade sufficient numbers of voters that things are good and they should vote the Tories back into government, even after 14 years of incompetence, graft, corruption and asset-stripping. He wants this notion to have some time to bed in before he risks actually calling the election.

Well, you know how much I hate to draw comparisons between 2024 and 1997

But there’s one (only one?) major flaw in that strategy. Going back to the ‘97 election, the economy was actually back in pretty good shape when Major had to call the election, with growth on the up. “Black Wednesday”, when Lamont had crashed sterling out of the ERM and the base interest rate had been hiked up to 12%, and which cost the country £3.3 billion, was a full five years in the past. And yet. At the election, Major still lost to the famous Labour landslide.

The Truss/Kwarteng debacle was even more recent in relation to the next election than Black Wednesday was to the ‘97 one. And it would seem that electors haven’t forgiven the Tories for that (or for Covid, Johnson’s lies, the Brexit shambles, and all the rest), and Labour’s sustained 25 point opinion poll lead would seem to indicate so.

So an upturn in the economy, even if it is happening, isn’t going to save Sunak’s hide, it seems to me.

[davidjay]

The latest:

[Bones McCoy]

No appetite for Labour - they said.

Like Elvis had no appetite for Peanut Butter and Banana sandwiches.

[kreuzberger]

I wonder if "being part of something" was what it was all about in motivating votes in 1997 and, to an extent, 2019 with the Get Brixit Done bullshit.

I hope so.

[Abernathy]

Well, I think what the polls show - and have done consistently for the last 12 months or more - is that most voters have for some time made a very firm decision that they want to evict the current shower of bandits currently masquerading as our government whenever the election comes , and whatever that takes - and whatever that takes is voting Labour. So in that sense, Kreuzie, yes, you are right. People want to be part of voting these cunts out and ending the 14 year debacle.