[Andy McDandy]

It used to be a cliche of the 70s and 80s that governments hoped neither the Russians or the trade unions would break wind too loudly or do anything stupid. I'm increasingly convinced that the present government are hoping either the Russians or Iranians do do something stupid, just so a) they can 'go out at the top', or b) rule the ashes.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Have they consulted France about all these people they're going to be sending back there? Lucky France isn't a powerful country with lots of allies who we've just pissed off.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tory chairman takes a break from explaining terrible by-election results.

The explanation for this strange behaviour is that he's after a safer seat. Unfortunately, he's tried already and failed to get one. Good line for Labour here.

[Watchman]

Quick thought about the Tories and Richie Rich bleating that “there's always a protest at mid-term by elections”; firstly, they are not mid-term, and secondly, have you stopped to think why there are so many, back in the day probably the only time most people go to vote in a by-election was if the sitting MP move upstairs ( either HoL or the choir celestial), but today, how many have been because someone’s been a naughty boy/girl or jumped before ending up in the former category

[Tubby Isaacs]

How fortunate the Tories are to have so many peope to offer them clever advice. There really aren't 35% who prioritize social conservatism over everything else. Point 2 is great. If only Sunak had thought of being competitive in polls. Very instructive that "left on the economy" doesn't feature as a solution from the SDP man.

Elsewhere he opines that the Tories can only win big from the Right, as 2019 shows. Someone points out to him that levelling up and building new hospitals everywhere were centrist, if anything. "Yes, but only economically", says Patrick.

[Watchman]

The “Swiss Tony” of politics

[mattomac]

People lend votes in increasing numbers nowadays, that’s the biggest thing the Tories should have learnt from 2019, too many of their Seb Payne types wanted to pretend this once in a life time shift.

It is something Labour need to learn as well but from what I see of their recently elected candidates that seems pretty evident.

The Tories were given a mandate to deliver while Labour were told to change.

Tories haven’t delivered just made it worse and Labour have changed, maybe in places too much but end of the day they had to.

[Youngian]

Will anyone notice Dave’s patriotic visit to the South Atlantic?

Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron has said that the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands is “not… up for discussion” as long as islanders want to be British, ahead of a visit to the archipelago.

He is set to make a trip to the Falkland Islands in a high-profile demonstration they are a “valued part of the British family” amid renewed Argentinian calls for talks on their future.

Lord Cameron’s visit will be the first by a Cabinet minister since 2016.

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-02-18/fal ... plans-trip

[Yug]

Why does Argentina think it has a claim to the Falkland Islands? Argentina didn't exist when we nicked 'em off the Spanish. We can't give them back to someone who never owned them in the first place. And Spain doesn't seem to be bothered.

[Bones McCoy]

I'm looking forward to an international summit between Dodgy Dave and Buzzsaw Javi.

[Andy McDandy]

Why does Argentina think it has a claim to the Falkland Islands? Argentina didn't exist when we nicked 'em off the Spanish. We can't give them back to someone who never owned them in the first place. And Spain doesn't seem to be bothered.

Proximity, and some very spurious claims to being the first settlers there. In more practical terms, there's the massive oilfield, and the very lucrative tourist and seafood industries.

[Youngian]

Spain was one of the FI’s biggest customers for its squid fish exports and Brexit’s made that harder.
A wiser Argentine leader would shelve their sovereignty claims for now, invite the Falklands to join Mercusor and take it from there.

[mattomac]

He met the Argentinian president a few months back.

In fact the President has changed his mind on this from the election when he said he didn’t care.

The President however is a big fan of Thatcher.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Can't see this appeal getting it down to less than 10 days. So new by-election incoming, I reckon.

[Abernathy]

Benton's more or less a certainty to get booted out at the general election anyway, but it's all grist to the mill.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Confirmed at 35 days.

Another Tory loss...

[Andy McDandy]

Nibble nibble nibble, so what if a GE looms? Every little helps.

[Tubby Isaacs]

What's the plan for Sunak then? Does he try to get Benton to clear off now? How does the timing work out with the general election?

[satnav]

I'm beginning to think that a May election is now looking very likely. Hunt will announce is budget in March full of tax cuts that he can't really deliver but will look good in any general election.

Hanging on to the last possible minute isn't really going to help the Tories much. There are going to be lots of cuts in local government and education, the war in Ukraine is not going to be ending anytime soon and the Middle East is also looking like a tinder box.

If Sunak doesn't call an election in May he will have to cope with the aftermath of a mauling in the local elections which would probably trigger a leadership challenge.

[Tubby Isaacs]

They've got this coming up in May.

The 2024 United Kingdom local elections are due to take place on 2 May 2024. Elections will take place for

councils and mayors in England and police and crime commissioners in England and Wales.

The majority of these elections have last been held in the 2021 local elections, delayed by a year from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lots of losses likely in these. So May makes a lot of sense.