[Crabcakes]

It doesn't matter. He won't be going to jail, he will still he the Republican presidential candidate and there's still a very strong possibility that he will be the next president. And if that happens he'll go on a revenge wrecking spree the likes of which we've never seen.

I disagree. I think he *is* going to jail, I don’t think he will be the Republican candidate, and even if he is, he will not be the next president because everything will be focussed against him.

Like the Tories over here, the republicans are reaping what they’ve sown and then some. They can’t govern even with a majority. They can’t stand each other long enough to even propose someone. And Trump has people flipping on him on a daily basis.

Despite the media honking that surrounds him, Trump rallies usually feature swathes of empty seats now. And polling has shown RFK pulls twice as many votes from Trump as he does Biden.

But to reiterate - he is absolutely going to jail. Quite possibly first because he’s going to breach a gag order. But eventually for one or more of the charges he’s being tried on. Because he is both very obviously guilty, very stupid so he hasn’t made any effort to hide anything, and very arrogant and assumed - like our own lovely Boris - that things would never stick. And of course again like Boris he’s finding out if you continually lie and throw people under a bus, they tend to reconsider their loyalty to you. Which is not a good plan for self preservation when they know where the bodies are buried.

[Boiler]

I disagree. I think he *is* going to jail, I don’t think he will be the Republican candidate, and even if he is, he will not be the next president because everything will be focussed against him.

"We'll see", as my mother used to say.

[Andy McDandy]

The thing about both Johnson and Trump is that they took advantage of systems that assumed a basic standard of behaviour.

[Boiler]

The thing about both Johnson and Trump is that they took advantage of systems that assumed a basic standard of behaviour.

For which neither have really faced any consequences, have they? There's a very slim chance Trump might, but I don't see Johnson becoming the pariah he should.

[Crabcakes]

The thing about both Johnson and Trump is that they took advantage of systems that assumed a basic standard of behaviour.

For which neither have really faced any consequences, have they? There's a very slim chance Trump might, but I don't see Johnson becoming the pariah he should.

Johnson is no longer Prime Minister and no longer an MP, and is unlikely to hold any senior office of state ever again. The most important consequences - the ones we all wanted to see happen - in terms of preventing further damage have already come about. The consequences for his mismanagement in office (the politest way I can describe it) won't be immediate, but you can already see the fallout from the covid enquiry taking shape, and then in the next 2 years he'll be embroiled in a covid contracts corruption investigation when Labour take office.

I'm sure we'd all like to see him thrown in prison immediately, but this sort of comeuppance - intricate, detailed and legal - takes time. It's why his standards committee ousting was so devastating: it was well researched and executed flawlessly, and it proved beyond any reasonable doubt to everyone that he was a floundering, barefaced, short-tempered liar, and then he doubled down on that and showed himself to be a bitter coward as well who wouldn't face his public despite his claims that they didn't want to see him out of parliament. He is now a laughing stock who will never lead his party again, and is widely considered the worst, most corrupt prime minister in history. He may not be shunned by *all*, but his cheerleaders now consist of the absolute dregs of the dregs of the Tory party - Rees-Mogg, Dorries etc. For someone like Johnson who craves attention but also credibility, this is worse than being a total outcast - not only is he not respected, he can only get the worst sort of fanboy fawning from oddballs and imbeciles who themselves are not remotely respected. All he has to look forward to now are increasing complaints from Carrie about the lack of expensive wallpaper, calls from Paul Dacre as to the whereabouts of this week's column and also that knighthood while you're at it, and further scrutiny of his actions that could and very likely will lead to legal challenge. Funtime Boris the people's favourite will not be back on HIGNFY anytime soon. Red-faced, furious, nasty Al Johnson may well be popping up a lot in documentaries and investigative journalism programmes, but he will not be happy about it.

As for Trump, let's look objectively at it: money-wise he is in dire straits, and is already siphoning cash allegedly for his reelection campaign to cover his ballooning legal fees. He is legally in an even worse situation than he is financially. He has no special protection now he has left office and is legally speaking just a private citizen. His party is tearing itself apart and are unable to cover him, and a significant part of that party absolutely loathe him and will be quietly actively working against him - either because his very existence stifles their own ambition, or because they are forced to work alongside MAGA imbeciles who make their own electoral prospects worse by association. Or both.

His situation is made all the more perilous by the consequences of his own cruelty and selfishness - former employees and confidants are flipping on him on a daily basis because he doesn't just abandon them the moment they are no longer useful, he viciously turns on them. His legal team are rank amateurs who you wouldn't want defending you on a parking ticket, because he's alienated everyone else (and even if he hadn't, the fact he doesn't pay his bills is common knowledge - and top lawyers demand top dollar). He is also being investigated by agencies that are now properly funded and run, supported by the AG, the upper house and (behind the scenes) the President, and the very fact that he was formerly president means people know they have to have 100% watertight cases - which is why he *seemed* to escape a lot of the earlier ones, as they were the speculative ones with far lower of a chance of success. It's not because he was being treated differently, or has some innate power of avoiding justice. It takes time to build a solid body of evidence, and that's why these trials and charges are a whole different ball game.

The final thing to bear in mind is that first time round he just wanted the presidency to spite Obama, and the GOP were happy to ride along oblivious to what they'd unleashed. This time, he *needs* the presidency. It's his only realistic route to avoiding jail time, but to win it he has to do so with less money, divided attention, a reduced voter base, a fragmented party at each other's throats, less personal support, no benefit from being the incumbent and no institutions working in his favour. He is in a desperate situation. And stupid, desperate people do stupid, desperate things that inevitably only make their situation worse.

[Andy McDandy]

On that score, I wonder if the fears of a riot or some sort of disorder if he's jailed are unfounded. I think a lot of the fire went out of the MAGA bellies with the Capitol riot and the very fast arrest and sentencing of those involved. There seemed to be a lot of people who got a healthy dose of reality and realised sharply that this wasn't some sort of game or walkover. As said above, his rallies are smaller, his news coverage getting increasingly negative. If he did go to jail, he'd be sent to a country club style rich people's prison, not to Riker's Island.

As for Johnson, I think Crabcakes is right. Funtime Boris was someone he played on his way to the top. He's not going to go down the Hamiltons panto route, nor can he do the Archer/Aitken 'redemption' arc, unless he's prepared for the pain bit first. I'd honestly not be surprised if Carrie sets her sights on someone younger. To be fair, either could leave first. I honestly don't care.

[Crabcakes]

Though no one will say it, I think the threat of Trump is diminished precisely because of the failed, and ultimately half-arsed insurrection. Yes, a mob invaded the capitol - and then milled around taking selfies. They had no real plan, and nor did Trump - he was just hoping if he threw enough shit something would stick and he’d magically become president again. No other mobs tried to simultaneously take over anywhere else. No govt. agencies or military sided with them.

That was their best shot, when they were in the best position to do it, and they managed one disorganised bunch who took one poorly defended building for a few hours while their ‘brave leader’ ran away to watch on TV. There was no mass armed uprising. No civil war. No lynch mobs dragging Democrats out onto the street.

He bluffed, and got called. Now we know his proud boy army was a few fat guys in camo gear and a guy who looked like a Jamiroquai cosplayer, egged on by loons like Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones. And now they’re mostly in jail and the support crew are fired or bankrupt.

[Oboogie]

Re riots if Trump is jailed: The reason Jan 6th happened was because it was allowed to happen. The Capitol building only had a skeletal police guard, and that provided the opportunity.
The police and National Guard reinforcements were present in Washington, but the orders for them to intervene were deliberately delayed by the President and those who supported him.
When Trump is sentenced there will be a police presence sufficient to maintain law and order. If the Proud Boys, or anyone else, attempt to start a riot they will be arrested.
Biden will not be ordering the National Guard to stay out of it, should they be needed. And the MAGA crowd know that, which is why they won't try anything. Sure, there'll be threats issued online beforehand and there'll be noisy protests on the day, but they know, that if they attempt to assault the courthouse and attack the judge and officials they will be arrested or shot.
They won't do it because: 1. they are cowardly posers, 2. they have nothing to gain and everything to lose, 3. they are far fewer today than they were three years ago.

[Rosvanian]

Mmm. Some good analysis there. Is he going down then or what?

[Oboogie]

Mmm. Some good analysis there. Is he going down then or what?

At this stage it's hard to see how he avoids it. What "going down" actually means is another matter. Some commentators, who know far more about US law then I do (that's almost everybody), suggest it might be some form of house arrest. Are they correct? I don't know, and I can't really see how anyone can - we're in uncharted territory and there is no precedent.

What I can imagine is that, if it is initially house arrest, it won't stay that way. Trump will be unable to stop himself from using social media to slander the judge and protest the "biased trial" (he'll say "bias trial") and I think he'll end up in big boys jail for contempt of court.

[Yug]

Mmm. Some good analysis there. Is he going down then or what?

That depends on the nature of the evidence against him. We know that the evidence is strong enough to gain a conviction - if it wasn't, they wouldn't have indicted him in the first place. What remains to be seen is how much of this is Trump's own doing, and how much is down to his associates manipulating him. Trump is a poorly (if expensively) educated stupid man, and we all know how easy it is to manipulate poorly-educated stupid people.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Crabcakes]

I suspect what will happen will be a conviction, a long and drawn out appeals process, and then the last resort of any aging scoundrel who is caught - a pathetic and obviously put on sickness act with a weak, walking-frame-using appearance in court to plead for clemency for a sick old man, Weinstein style.

Because despite everything he has said, and everything his supporters claim, he is an absolute coward and will do *anything* to avoid the consequences of his actions up to and including a humiliating performance that flies totally in the face of his previous boasts of being the fittest president ever, and boasts that he weighs the same as Muhammad Ali at his fighting weight.

Trump’s comeuppance will be his willing personal trashing of his own brand to save his sorry arse.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Mmm. Some good analysis there. Is he going down then or what?

My non-expert googling suggests he's got a reasonably high chance of being convicted, but for stuff that would typically get a non-custodial for a first offence. But there will be discretion and he could be sent down the road.

[Crabcakes]

Mmm. Some good analysis there. Is he going down then or what?

My non-expert googling suggests he's got a reasonably high chance of being convicted, but for stuff that would typically get a non-custodial for a first offence. But there will be discretion and he could be sent down the road.

I think his reaction - given sentencing usually happens some time after conviction - may be the decider here. Someone remorseful and honest, not making a fuss, could well be treated with if not leniency then reasonableness. But this is Donald Trump. Days, if not weeks, of screaming man-baby antics and entirely unveiled, direct threats could see him get a custodial that he could easily have avoided simply by not being a 360-degree shitnado.

[Andy McDandy]

We know that the evidence is strong enough to gain a conviction - if it wasn't, they wouldn't have indicted him in the first place.

I think this is the key thing to remember. Litigation is costly and time consuming. Even government agencies have to pick their battles, so need to be if not sure then confident of a victory before bringing a case. Doesn't matter where or when. Even in the USSR, it may have been easy to denounce your neighbour to the KGB/NKVD/Cheka but the vast majority were still recognised as vexatious neighbours trying to settle scores, and were filed in the bin.

[Boiler]

At the very worst, I see him with an ankle tag and confined to Mar-a-Lago.

[Crabcakes]

At the very worst, I see him with an ankle tag and confined to Mar-a-Lago.

This assumes that he won’t have to sell it to cover costs. Because him going down is just the start - if he’s found guilty of any of the charges against him relating to illegal activity (and depending on what evidence comes out even if not, in some cases), he’ll be open to follow-up lawsuits from every single underling who can reasonably claim they thought <thing they did and got in trouble for> was OK because ‘the president told them to do it’.

Which as excuses go, is admittedly a pretty good one. But regardless, Trump needs to win or dismiss *every single case*, because just 1 loss opens the door to so many more.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

The Nuremberg Defence is inadmissable in international law, so I assume also so in US law.

[Crabcakes]

The Nuremberg Defence is inadmissable in international law, so I assume also so in US law.

Indeed. I’m not thinking it would get people off of their own charges, rather they would then pursue Trump for damages given the US’s delightfully litigious nature.

[Yug]

I think what Crabbie's getting at is, if one of Trump's former employees tries to sue Trump on the grounds that they wouldn't have committed their offence if the then occupant of the Oval Office hadn't said it was ok, and one judge considers that to be reasonable grounds to sue him, then it will open the door to a (hopefully) large number of similar lawsuits. I don't know if this will happen, but I *do* know Americans are allowed to sue over all sorts of, to us, stupid things.


Cross posted with Mr Crabcakes