[Abernathy]

Chris Pincher the sex-pest has resigned, so there will now be yet another by-election, in his Tamworth seat.

The point of interest here, as in Mid- Bedfordshire, is the apparent ruling out of any arrangement, formal or informal, between Labour and the Lib Dems. Both parties fancy their chances in both by-elections, and nobody is about to stand aside or ease off.

Labour will be keen to pick off both seats to build momentum towards the predicted general election victory.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour have done well in local elections in Leave voting urban areas. Would be surprised if the Lib Dem’s bothered too much in Tamworth.

[Bones McCoy]

Polling indicates a close call between Con and Lab.

It also suggests Reform ahead of LibDems and Greens.


The Reform party sleepers on Conservativehome have de-cloaked predicting a win base on mass defections by disillusioned Tory voters.

[mattomac]

I think it’s going to Labour.

The reasons, the way the by election has happened, the fact the GE candidate isn’t going run but expects someone to stand aside for him in a few months time.

These aren’t seats Labour has to win for a majority but as seen on the night of Selby it allowed Labour a victory to celebrate.

If they were to take Rutherglen the week or so before and then follow it up with one of these or both that would be that.

[davidjay]

Would someone, probably Abers, tell me why Tamworth is such a safe Tory seat when it's basically Birmingham overspill?

[Andy McDandy]

Because it's Birmingham overspill. Same as suburban Essex. Moved out to have bigger houses and gardens, blame any problems on being forced out by That Lot.

[Abernathy]

It was only previously Labour from 1997-2010, I think. Historically, it's something of an iconic Tory town, with Sir Robert Peel's "Tamworth Manifesto" regarded as a milestone in Tory folklore.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Would someone, probably Abers, tell me why Tamworth is such a safe Tory seat when it's basically Birmingham overspill?

What Andy said.

Plus Tory Euroscepticism has probably been a big vote winner from 2015 onwards (when there was a big swing to them, contrary to the national picture. Whether that continues, who knows?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Great effort by the Tamworth candidate for the Tories. Found to have swearingly sounded off in a community Facebook about poor people having mobile phones.

He’s fucked, I hope. But I reckon Mid Bedfordshire is going to be a hold because of house prices.

[Youngian]

But I reckon Mid Bedfordshire is going to be a hold because of house prices.

Not if you’re paying a mortgage. London and SE prices look like they’ve risen, though.

[davidjay]

Judging by party communications I've received it seems most effort is going into Tamworth. It could be different elsewhere of course.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

We did it!

Tory failed to show up at the count...

Correction - once he heard the result he buggered off and din't go on stage for the declaration...

[Malcolm Armsteen]

[Oboogie]

We did it!

Tory failed to show up at the count...

Correction - once he heard the result he buggered off and din't go on stage for the declaration...

He was on stage for the declaration, he just kept everybody waiting for a while.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Sans rosette...

[Oboogie]

Yes I noticed that. I was wondering if he was ashamed of his party or if his party was ashamed of him and ordered him to remove it.

[mattomac]

Well he did do that shitty flow chart about people who can’t afford to eat and not only that seemed to share it beyond friends and then sort of half stand by it.

As the last box said “fuck off”.

[Youngian]

Was he hungry and rushing off for a meal?

[Youngian]

Far right loons took almost 10 percent of the vote in Tamworth, that’ll give succour to the Tory headbangers to be even more hardline. Yeh go on Lee and Suella, you do that.

[davidjay]

This just reinforces my belief that I'll be very surprised if Reform don't stand down in some seats come the election.