[Youngian]

They are poisoning the wells like the jilted, obsessed lover, armed to the teeth.

"If I can't have you, no one can."

I’ll go with that, Tories will cling on to the bitter end looting whatever they can and scorching as much earth as possible before their handover.

[Watchman]

They are poisoning the wells like the jilted, obsessed lover, armed to the teeth.

"If I can't have you, no one can."

I’ll go with that, Tories will cling on to the bitter end looting whatever they can and scorching as much earth as possible before their handover.

Okay selling land off to developers, on the cheap (but Brown sold all the gold), is the "visible" stuff, its the hidden, nasty stuff I'm more concerned about.

[Yug]

Our predictions of early 2020 are coming true

Working-class people who were a key part of the coalition of voters that delivered the Conservatives’ 2019 general election win have been deserting the party in droves under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, polling has found.

Only 44% of working-class voters who voted for the Tories in 2019 say they will back the party next time, according to research by YouGov released as Keir Starmer prepares to make what will probably be his last pitch for support at a Labour conference before a general election...

https://amp.theguardian.com/inequality/ ... poll-finds

They voted Tory to get their precious Brexit done, because, for some reason, they couldn't trust Corbyn to do it.

As has been said in this forum before, once they find the Eton posh-boy version of Brexit is not to their taste, and the Tories keep on being Tories, and the Jezziah is no longer Labour 'leader', they'll come back to the fold.

And here they come.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

And Reeves' speech will speed their return.

[Boiler]

Is there a transcript of Reeves' speech available? I'm at work.

[Youngian]

Our predictions of early 2020 are coming true

Working-class people who were a key part of the coalition of voters that delivered the Conservatives’ 2019 general election win have been deserting the party in droves under Rishi Sunak’s leadership, polling has found.

Only 44% of working-class voters who voted for the Tories in 2019 say they will back the party next time, according to research by YouGov released as Keir Starmer prepares to make what will probably be his last pitch for support at a Labour conference before a general election...

https://amp.theguardian.com/inequality/ ... poll-finds

They voted Tory to get their precious Brexit done, because, for some reason, they couldn't trust Corbyn to do it.

As has been said in this forum before, once they find the Eton posh-boy version of Brexit is not to their taste, and the Tories keep on being Tories, and the Jezziah is no longer Labour 'leader', they'll come back to the fold.

And here they come.

Mystic Megs also predicted Brexit economic fantasies would be paid for in higher interest rates and that would be it for the Tory myth of economic competence in Middle England.

[mattomac]

Interesting point some of the more balanced pollsters on X/Twitter now on Bluesky is that switcher vote hasn't moved for Labour and it would in it's own be enough to see a Labour government.

Effectively Labour need to GOTV whenever it is.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Some very interesting data:

[Youngian]

Telegraph results are intriguing, it was once was a decent newspaper with quality reporting until very recently that was attractive to a discerning audience. Now it contains next to nothing for a non right wing Tory. Express didn’t used to be a joke paper but you have to go much further back in history. I’m guessing it’s an elderly dwindling demographic that buy it out of habit.
The Sun has many attractions to readers who don’t bother with the politics and has never had a solid Tory voting readership like the Mail.

[Andy McDandy]

Telegraph has been pretty scathing of the government, but its alternative is serious rise of the nutters stuff. Even some of the retired colonels will think on that basis that awful as the Tories are, perhaps what's needed is a few years of Labour rather than the libertarian alleged whizz kids playing roulette with the economy.

[mattomac]

Telegraph results are intriguing, it was once was a decent newspaper with quality reporting until very recently that was attractive to a discerning audience. Now it contains next to nothing for a non right wing Tory. Express didn’t used to be a joke paper but you have to go much further back in history. I’m guessing it’s an elderly dwindling demographic that buy it out of habit.
The Sun has many attractions to readers who don’t bother with the politics and has never had a solid Tory voting readership like the Mail.

The Sun has avoided politics on its frontpage for sometime I've noticed, even on the day after Sunak's speech he got a minor Image box at the top, losing out to a story about the World Cup being hosted in 2030 in 6 countries, something that even for the Sun may have struggled to get the back page on a busy day of Football.

[Youngian]

We know Murdoch doesn’t back losers and he’s now in hedging territory.

[Youngian]

A few points here: Labour only lost a quarter of its votes to the Tories in GE2019 (high, abstention, LDs and Greens made up the rest). The joint Con/Reform vote remains static at around 30%. A Tory strategy of pandering to the hard right will ensure it will remain so. Osborne and Cameron worked this out 15 years ago and it’s even truer now.

Only one in 10 voters who supported the Tories in 2019 have switched to Labour, according to a major new poll for Sky News.

The exclusive YouGov survey of 5,621 voters found 11% of 2019 Tory voters would now vote for Labour, while slightly more - 12% - have switched to Reform UK, a party to the right of the Conservatives.

The fact that Labour is attracting fewer former Tory votes than Reform shows the difficulty Sir Keir Starmer's party is having in getting Tory switchers.

Less than half - 40% - of 2019 Tory voters say they are sticking with the Conservatives if there was an election tomorrow, while 23% don't know and 7% would not vote.

Former Tory voters from the 2019 campaign are perhaps the most important battleground for Conservative strategists at the next election, and their messaging and policy is designed to target this group in particular. https://news.sky.com/story/conservative ... s-12998337

[Tubby Isaacs]

Given the by-election results, isn’t it worth asking about Lib Dem’s specifically?

[Youngian]

Lot of wriggle room there, how many Don’t Knows switched to LDs and Greens in locals?

[mattomac]

Apparently even if every 23% of those returned Labour would still lead by about 10-12%

The headline really should be 60% of Tory voters could not vote Tory next time, that’s why they are polling around 20-30%.

I also think a sizeable amount of the DK’s won’t vote. One of Labour’s big issues was the fact that their vote didn’t come out, it was the same in 97/01 for the Tories.

And as you’ve said there is no data on the other parties, in fact reform vote could easily be Labour vote in some areas. See Thanet council and Tamworth.

[Abernathy]

Anybody savvy about betting, specfically online betting?

I’m thinking of bunging a tenner on the date of the general election if I can get decent odds, and I’ve been looking for online bookies offering odds, so far without success.

Anybody know where to find this stuff ?

[davidjay]

Anybody savvy about betting, specfically online betting?

I’m thinking of bunging a tenner on the date of the general election if I can get decent odds, and I’ve been looking for online bookies offering odds, so far without success.

Anybody know where to find this stuff ?

You don't deserve my help after Allegrogate, but here y'go. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics

[Abernathy]

Well, I already looked there. No odds offered on the date of the election, as far as I can see.

[davidjay]

Well, I already looked there. No odds offered on the date of the election, as far as I can see.

You wouldn't get the exact date unless you contact a bookie direct.