Abernathy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 12:23 am
Bones McCoy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 8:57 pm
I'm going to suggest something revolutionary.
Maybe we should treat by-election results as independent events.
As opposed to part of a complex weave that predicts future general elections.
Labour has one more MP.
Professor John Curtice might disagree with that on this occasion.
During my time at Strathclyde University, I did work for the man, I respect his reputation and his work.
However - and here's the point I was trying to make...
Stats will get you so far, especially when they are collected in an isolated context.
By Elections often have big local and personality stories involved.
I believe that proven reliable polls are a much better indicator.
I'll add that the worst aspect of "everything's a numerical model", is the innumerate political figures who'll extrapolate bullshit from any result.
Throw in the dishonest actors who know better, but are spinning for one party, and the whole process is discredited.
Maybe I've been fatigued by the over-use of statistics in sports coverage.
"Middlesborough have never scored during the first 20 minutes at Norwich" - Well OK, you've got a database, but so the fuck what..
Push it a bit further and you're in nonsense territory like "The coin's bound to show tails this time" or "The Generals are due a win".
