[Youngian]

Noticed some prices have fallen in the local supermarket. Butters were around 15% less expensive since my last visit. Any ideas why that should be when inflation forecasts are rising? Butter isn't a luxury item that people would cut out when they're saving the pennies. One thought is that there's a surplus of perishable items like milk due to exports to the EU dropping. Or maybe people a very worried about spending but haven't read anythingto back that assumption.

[Nigredo]

[MisterMuncher]

Jack's thread on the rises is well worth a look. As ever with such things, inflation is an "average". The low priced items people rely on to live need to rise an awful lot before it becomes obvious in the headline figure.

[Youngian]

Is that the real reason the BoE are taking a pass on Murphy’s insight?

The orthodoxy is that prices are likely to fall along with spending as well as imports becoming cheaper if Sterling rises. This is therefore a brave Sir Humphrey prediction

[Youngian]

Make up a reason other than Brexit for the Pound devaluing if you must but for a central banker to ignore it is as a cause of inflation is very worrying. Bailey is surely just a place man not up to the job.

[Youngian]

You may have come across Gary Stephenson doing the rounds who has an interesting and convincing perspective in the mug’s game of economic predictions.
A former LSE economist and disillusioned geezerish City Boy trader, his rock hard sense of certainty can be off putting but he has a sound mixture of street smarts and academic rigour.
His central theme is the rich are getting richer and can’t possibly spend their money so what are they doing with it? Buying more assets of course so house prices are only going to keep rising.

[davidjay]

You may have come across Gary Stephenson doing the rounds who has an interesting and convincing perspective in the mug’s game of economic predictions.
A former LSE economist and disillusioned geezerish City Boy trader, his rock hard sense of certainty can be off putting but he has a sound mixture of street smarts and academic rigour.
His central theme is the rich are getting richer and can’t possibly spend their money so what are they doing with it? Buying more assets of course so house prices are only going to keep rising.

Sad, but probably true.