[Youngian]

Gina Davis was more convincing casting for a fucking pirate than Keir Starmer.
Is this the Tory campaign strategy, point to something on a walkabout and ‘hey why don’t we…?’

[Dalem Lake]

I would love my MP Peter Bone to get turfed out. He's a bone-idle prick who appears more on the TV chatting shite then in his own constituency yet still manages to get huge majorities here for some reason.

[Samanfur]

As someone who's been lumbered with Sir Jake "get a higher salary, or go out there and get that new job” Berry since 2010, I feel your pain.

If he does get turfed out at the next election, I suspect he'll be looking for a job at Talk TV. They've had him on speed dial since Sunak sacked him as Party Chairman.

[Yug]

...Peter Bone [...] yet still manages to get huge majorities here for some reasons.

Because he stands on the 'right' ticket. I live (currently) in one of those constituencies too. Pin a blue rosette on a broken lawnmower. The first PMQs after the election. Put the telly on, and sure enough. That *is* a broken lawnmower you can see on the Tory back benches.

[Abernathy]

Here is the estimable Mr. Moorhouse with some very interesting thoughts on why the general election could well be this autumn.

[Abernathy]

Right. FOUR by-elections now on the immediate horizon, all caused by Tories baling out (when Mad Nad eventually gets around to it), all at very real risk, if not high probability, of becoming Labour or Lib Dem gains. A General election now due within 18 months, but quite possibly before that.

I’m returning to a theme, here, but are we witnessing a replay of 1996/7?

Check out the parliamentary by elections in the run-up to the ‘97 landslide. From 1992 to 1997, there were 5 LibDem gains from the Tories, 3 Labour gains from the Tories, and 1 SNP gain from the Tories. Basically, the Tories couldn’t win a fucking raffle.

Then, 1 May 1997. The pattern is fairly unmistakable.

The Roy jenkins analogy still very much applies, of course, but who’s not optimistic ?

[Bones McCoy]

I hope history records the coming election as the "Chat Shit Get Banged Election" - for all the right reasons.

[Youngian]

Mad old bat probably believes it

[mattomac]

Only way they would hold the balance is by intentionally or unintentionally splitting the vote of the Tories thus allowing Labour an even bigger majority.

[MisterMuncher]

It's just the same exceptionalist bullshit that has pervaded politics through this last decade: it's about winning the argument amidst your own faction without considering anything outside of that.

The follow on is howling like a stuck pig when factions outside your own have the temerity not to nod it along afterwards.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

I've been looking at the New Statesman's prediction of how we would end up if the election were held now, and on the present polling.

These are the notable Tories who would lose their seats (there are many more):

Graham Brady* (Altrincham & Sale) - Labour
Lee Anderson (Ashfield) - Labour
Victoria Prentis (Banbury) - Labour
Brendan Clark-Smith (Bassetlaw) - Labour
Gary Sambrook (Birmingham Northfield) - Labour
Dehenna Davison* (Bishop Auckland) - Labour
Scott Benton (Blackpool Sth) - Labour
Tobias Elwood (Bournemouth East) - Labour
Conor Burns (Bournemouth West)
George Eustice* (Cambourne) - Labour
Elliott Colbourne (Carshalton and Wallington) - Lib Dem
Greg Hands (Chelsea & Fulham) - Labour
Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford) - Labour
Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet) - Labour
Chris Philp (Croydon South) - Labour
Natalie Elphicke (Dover SE) - Labour
Tim Loughton (East Worthing and Shoreham) - Labour
Mark Harper (Forest of Dean) - Labour
Brandon Lewis (Great Yarmouth) - Labour
Robert Halfon (Harlow) - Labour
Phillip Hollobone (Kettering) - Labour
Chris Skidmore* (Kingswood) - Labour
Ben Bradley (Mansfield) - Labour
David Davies (Monmouth) - Labour
Liam Fox (North Somerset) - Labour
Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicestershire) - Labour
Jonny Mercer (Plymouth) - Labour
Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North) - Labour
Alok Sharma (Reading West) - Labour
James Duddridge (Rochford & Southend East) - Labour
Daniel Kawczynsky (Shrewsbury and Atcham) - Labour
Jonathan Gullis (Stoke on Trent) - Labour
Lucy Allan* (Telford) - Labour
Boris Johnson* (Uxbridge) - Labour
Peter Bone* (Wellingborough) - Labour
Shaun Bailey (West Bromwich) - Labour
Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon) - Labour
John Redwood (Wokingham) - Lib Dem
Mark Jenkinson (Workington) - Labour
Ben Wallace (Wyre & Preston North) - Labour

Those who have indicated they will not stand again are asterisked.

Comments?

[Boiler]

Reasons to be cheerful?

A lot of thoroughly obnoxious individuals in there. Andrew Bridgen doesn't count though as he's no longer a Conservative MP. I can see a hopeful for you, but in my area? Nope.

A friend of mine thinks Philip Davies (he's his MP) may be a casualty but to whom I know not.

[Yug]

Nadine Dorries* (possibly Lib Dem)

I say possibly because the Tory candidate for the upcoming by-election is Festus Akinbusoyo, the current Police and Crime Commissioner who everyone agrees is totally bloody useless. Plus he's black and has a funny name - two things which may count against him at the ballot box. But on the plus side, he's a Tory, and the last time the morons of mid-Bedfordshire voted any other way was in 1929.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Predicted Tory hold...

[davidjay]

Another outlier:

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Survation have got Labour 30 points ahead...

LAB: 53% (+5)
CON: 23% (-9)
LDM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 4% (+1)
REF: 3% (+2)
REC: 1% (+1)

Got to be an outlier. But we can dream...

[Oboogie]

Survation have got Labour 30 points ahead...

LAB: 53% (+5)
CON: 23% (-9)
LDM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 4% (+1)
REF: 3% (+2)
REC: 1% (+1)

Got to be an outlier. But we can dream...

I note that the fieldwork was restricted to London, not the UK. Also, crucially, undecideds have been omitted.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Aww. Can't a boy dream a little?

[Crabcakes]

I've been looking at the New Statesman's prediction of how we would end up if the election were held now, and on the present polling.

…

Comments?

The added bonus here is GB News, the Mail etc. will be at risk of bankruptcy from the amount of no-hopers they’ll have to take on to write columns, host shows etc.

[Tubby Isaacs]

[
I note that the fieldwork was restricted to London, not the UK. Also, crucially, undecideds have been omitted.

Damn. But even with undecideds, that's got to be a bunch more London seats going, where you'd think they couldn't fall all that much lower.