[Tubby Isaacs]

I think Tory MPs have looked at the polls and realised they've run out of road re having fights with the EU. When Bozo won in 2019, it was because he said he had a deal which would put the whole thing to bed. Quite why he didn't stick to that, God knows. If he could get those tax rises through Parliament, he could surely have got something like this through too.

[Crabcakes]

I suspect it was more important for him to be popular than to do something helpful. And who knows what someone who wanted the Good Friday agreement scrapped has on him?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Maybe he'd been partying with Charles Moore or something, which I think preceded his decision to go out on a limb for Owen Paterson.

I think the Tories, after this development, are in with much more of a shout than they were. It could be a significant day.

[Yug]

I think Tory MPs have looked at the polls and realised they've run out of road re having fights with the EU. When Bozo won in 2019, it was because he said he had a deal which would put the whole thing to bed. Quite why he didn't stick to that, God knows. If he could get those tax rises through Parliament, he could surely have got something like this through too.

Because he couldn't. It was just another lie from the pathological liar.

[Dalem Lake]

I think the Tories, after this development, are in with much more of a shout than they were. It could be a significant day.

Really? I don't think so. I cannot see anyone in my area in the middle of England getting really excited about a deal for the benefit of Northern Ireland, or anything else to do with NI for that matter. Everyone here seems seriously pissed off with the cost of living and the slow but visible total collapse of public services.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Fair comment, yeah, he only had a withdrawal deal and had to do the trade deal. But there was no need to go backwards like he did. Just say the truth, it was the first stage and they could come back to it. I doubt you could get a majority who cared much about the NI Protocol at a Rangers home game.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Really? I don't think so. I cannot see anyone in my area in the middle of England getting really excited about a deal for the benefit of Northern Ireland, or anything else to do with NI for that matter. Everyone here seems seriously pissed off with the cost of living and the slow but visible total collapse of public services.

I think they'd have been fucked if Sunak had given in to the ERG or passed it only with support from Labour.

The public finances are coming in better than expected, so far, so enough to pay for some giveaways and/or set some nasty traps for Labour. They've been quite clever politically in terms of their targeting recently. Bozo sealed his election triumph when he cancelled Corporation Tax cuts to spend more on the NHS.

[satnav]

While Sunak will clearly pick up plenty of favourable headlines over the next couple of days it will be interesting to see how Johnson and his cheerleaders respond. Until now the Johnson camp have kept their powder dry hoping that given time Sunak would trip up and Johnson would get another crack at the leadership. If Sunak's ratings start to improve will Johnson be happy to sit around on the backbenches for another couple of years or will he start trying to undermine Sunak?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Funny you should say that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

[Youngian]

Good day for Sunak and the country. No signs yet Bozo and ERG are going to put up a fight. They’re not going to like his stealthy alignment measures but what would the ERG move on: Erasmus, Horizon, musician touring visas, pet passports, ECHR? Not promising hills to die on.

[davidjay]

Funny you should say that.

"A sulk you could see through concrete." (Someone on LBC this evening).

[mattomac]

If Brexit was the only game in town it may help Sunak but it’s a deal most people thought was sorted 4 years ago.

It has to be honest extremely little impact on the main land UK and the talk he can concentrate on the other things is a bit meh as said it only really stirred its head a few months back when the DUP were refusing to power share and we don’t know if they will continue.

Sunak seems to be attempting two games but I’m not sure he will win at either. It seems the case across the board at the moment with the unions, with his own party, with NI, with the EU. Most people in the mainland UK don’t care about NI until terrorism raises its ugly head sadly. Also if NI people start to feel poorer like the rest of us due to Brexit that’s going cause issues.

It seems it was delivered on the proviso that Starmer is a shoe in at the next election, if that no longer became the case it might cause these ructions.

Until people feel anything in their pocket this won’t change and at some point that just hardens so any upturn people don’t factor it in. For a lot of people under Thatcher people could look back and go oh well I had something tangible this last 13 years or that Major was a fresh break from a still untrusted Labour.

The problem is we’ve had 13 years of crap, no one is better off, no sizeable amount of the public has gained from it, there are very few winners and a whole lot of losers. They are trying to normalise NHS waiting times, food rationing, high energy and the threat of power cuts.

None of the other issues have been held up by these Brexit talks, it wasn’t even a story until a week ago. You talk up an economy improving but the needle is largely unmoving and we’ve had 13 years of static growth, stagnant wages and crumbling infrastructure, I’m not sure even a small upturn in growth would shift that.

I don’t see a landslide regardless but even with Deltapolls that shift it over a week like tonight’s one they are still 1% down on a month ago with the same company.

And one last thing, even if you like Sunak, there is no guarantee that he will be there within a year of government. Labour’s continued approach to Corbyn effectively shuts that door with Labour but the Tories have had 3 PMs in 5 months at a time when people were facing the worst energy bills known. Energy bills that we should have been mostly insulated from.

And that in lies the problem, everything they’ve done on their watch from the pandemic to energy bills to even Brexit they claimed that we would be ok and every time we were not.

[Youngian]

While Labour only has to drop the ball once, the Tories only have to pick up a few turds from the floor of shit they created and the Blue Wall starts looking safe. Red wall was always low hanging fruit for Labour.

[Watchman]

All I can see at the moment; Wishy has renegotiated around some of the edges of an existing agreement, and in doing so has bruised the ego of his main “rival”; the right wing press desperately spinning it as the equivalent of Camp David; my understanding that it gives NI companies better access to EU than those in mainland GB; there is still the political impasse in Stormont to resolve and the tail that is the DUP having wagged the dog, will look for even more concessions

[Andy McDandy]

In addition to Matt's excellent analysis above, I'd add that in the mainland UK, we only really hear (through the news media) the DUP take on NI politics. Sinn Fein tend to get the "well, they would say that, wouldn't they?" treatment, and other parties may as well not exist. So what we get are the council estate hardmen who'd happily burn the place down if they could be kings of the ashes, along with the occasional vox pop of Northern Irish people going "we really rather miss being part of the EU, TBH". Which. according to my friends over the water, is a hell of a lot more representative than the views of the 12 angry Orangemen.

[Crabcakes]

I think the Tories, after this development, are in with much more of a shout than they were. It could be a significant day.

I think 3 things are in play here:
1. What the Tories gain in sensible people breathing a sigh of relief that they’re not out to restart the troubles anymore just to appease the ERG headbangers, they will lose in xenophobes who will drift back to Farage or worse.
2. Johnson - not only denied a Sunak collapse that would give him a way back in, but also humiliated by his law-busting bill being killed off - won’t be able to resist some sort of revenge act, and will have no qualms about collateral damage to the party
3. You can’t pay frighteningly high utility bills with a revised NI agreement, or substitute it for tomatoes in a cheap meal - people’s everyday woes will be foremost in their mind when they vote, and even people in NI will be aware that this is a step to fixing what they wilfully vandalised rather than something new or better

[davidjay]

The Tories have been so appallingly bad that anything positive will look like a giant leap forward. Their client media will hail a great victory and project it as proof they're on their way back. The majority of the voters who will decide the next election will carry on wondering whether to put the heating on or buy food they actually like.

[Abernathy]

O'Brien's had a couple of good takes on it this morning. In one of his beloved metaphors, he notes that the Tories, having completely burned down our house, are now engaged on re-building one small part of the house that not many of us ever go to anyway.

He also observes that he thinks that the "Windsor Framework" agreement has been possible simply because Sunak has been able to recover some of the trust between the UK and the EU that used to exist before Johnson absolutely and comprehensively poisoned the well of that trust. It's reasonable to surmise that Starmer's own reserves of trust with respect to the EU are in equally good fettle, if not substantially better (Starmer has been working quietly away at building relationships with EU leaders since he became leader) . This undoubtedly augurs well for the forthcoming Starmer government.

Thirdly, Sunak's achievement is notable as possibly the first initiative in 13 years of Tory government that, quite uniquely, recognises reality . And the natural extension of that recognition is the absolute, inexorable inevitability that the UK will have to, at some point, re-align as closely as possible with EU standards and regulations, which also happens to be Starmer's policy , as well as the precursor and pre-requisite for one day re-joining the single market, customs union, and ultimately to restoring the UK's full EU membership.

[Youngian]

O'Brien's had a couple of good takes on it this morning. In one of his beloved metaphors, he notes that the Tories, having completely burned down our house, are now engaged on re-building one small part of the house that not many of us ever go to anyway.

I was out walking the four legged friend which inspired a similar metaphor; Tories let the dogs shit all over the house but Rishi’s got a couple of poo bags.