[Youngian]

Oh god what is her fucking problem?

Isn’t she deserting her post for a plumb job with the NHS? Sure, have a knighthood as well.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Maybe the cranks are a bit skint after Christmas.

You’d think TUSC would find someone.

Anyhow be surprised if it doesn’t align with polling at that time, this also had a major transport project cancelled so could be even better for Labour.

The restoration of rail to Skelmersdale? Looks like a lot of work was done on that. I don't know anything about it, but I can see the branch was closed pre-Beeching before Skelmersdale was relaunched as a new town. Looks like a pretty obvious one. I often poo poo rail openings, but this is a decent sized town and even if all you got at first was a shuttle to the Merseyrail line, I think that could be worthwhile.

There seems to be less TUSC around this area/Merseyside than I expected. Are other Spartists taking the TUSC target vote?

[mattomac]

Maybe the cranks are a bit skint after Christmas.

You’d think TUSC would find someone.

Anyhow be surprised if it doesn’t align with polling at that time, this also had a major transport project cancelled so could be even better for Labour.

The restoration of rail to Skelmersdale? Looks like a lot of work was done on that. I don't know anything about it, but I can see the branch was closed pre-Beeching before Skelmersdale was relaunched as a new town. Looks like a pretty obvious one. I often poo poo rail openings, but this is a decent sized town and even if all you got at first was a shuttle to the Merseyrail line, I think that could be worthwhile.

There seems to be less TUSC around this area/Merseyside than I expected. Are other Spartists taking the TUSC target vote?

I’d be surprised if TUSC have a strategy in a target vote, it’s slightly odd they haven’t seen at least a slight increase to say 200-300 from about 50.

I know Ormskirk well and it always appeared a bit Tory but Southport rather than Tory elsewhere, the “oh well we might vote LDs”.

But yeah read about that rail project being cancelled, I don’t know much about it but the council had bought the land. I bet there is 100 of similar projects in the north.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't know how much these local rail prohects have cut through, but there's been a lot made of them, "reverse Beeching" and all that.

On a tangent, I see the Portishead extension is still waiting on its business case, due in 2024. That, to say the least, is very late. Liam Fox is the local MP, with a 17,000 majority, but not an overwhelming vote share (52.9%). LAB-LD-GRN have the rest, and with tactical voting for LAB, that majority might not be that secure.

[Youngian]

Never even met a Portishead fan who wanted to go to Portishead.

[kreuzberger]

I have passed it on the M5 while on the way to the airport at Weston-Super-Market. Indeed, the magnetism was not great.

[mattomac]

I don't know how much these local rail prohects have cut through, but there's been a lot made of them, "reverse Beeching" and all that.

On a tangent, I see the Portishead extension is still waiting on its business case, due in 2024. That, to say the least, is very late. Liam Fox is the local MP, with a 17,000 majority, but not an overwhelming vote share (52.9%). LAB-LD-GRN have the rest, and with tactical voting for LAB, that majority might not be that secure.

I can see them being a bigger issue in commuter belt towns such as Skem.

If it wasn’t for the band I feel Portishead would be solely known for people seeing it on a sign on the M5.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Or the LBSCR Aix 'Terrier' acquired by the GWR and named 'Portishead'.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I can see them being a bigger issue in commuter belt towns such as Skem.

If it wasn’t for the band I feel Portishead would be solely known for people seeing it on a sign on the M5.

They got hit in 1997 in commuter towns, and to some extent 2017 (albeit with another dynamic at work, people who wanted to live in London, moving to them). Portishead would have a fair few people who drive to Bristol for work, and might have fancied the train. There may be lots more who think "this lot can't even get the train done" even if they wouldn't use it much.

[mattomac]

Or the LBSCR Aix 'Terrier' acquired by the GWR and named 'Portishead'.

As I said if it wasn’t for the band most peoples knowledge of Portishead name would be the sign on the M5.

[mattomac]

I see Sunak is out on the campaign trail, going all guns blazing in err Cornwall.

Think that tells you the result and probably it’s size, I assume it will line up well with the polling.

[Arrowhead]

I see Sunak is out on the campaign trail, going all guns blazing in err Cornwall.

Think that tells you the result and probably it’s size, I assume it will line up well with the polling.

The Britain Elects model has predicted LAB 64% / CON 24%, which is a useful benchmark. I think they got the Chester by-election pretty much spot-on.

Of course, a narrower result will see the usual deluge of "Keith OUT!1!!" drivel from the usual suspects.

[mattomac]

I’ve seen a few predictions, some silly ones to be honest which I have no doubt stats for lefties will be pointing to if they don’t happen.

[The Weeping Angel]

[Arrowhead]

Another very solid result for Labour. Very difficult to find anything wrong with those sorts of numbers - I suppose the Tories will be moderately relieved that, despite everything, they still got a quarter of the vote.

Reform coming third will trigger some hot takes, but in truth they didn't even pass 5%.

[davidjay]

Another very solid result for Labour. Very difficult to find anything wrong with those sorts of numbers - I suppose the Tories will be moderately relieved that, despite everything, they still got a quarter of the vote.

Reform coming third will trigger some hot takes, but in truth they didn't even pass 5%.

Yeahbutlessvotesthan2017.

[Watchman]

I’m surmising that voter ID wasn’t operating;

[Tubby Isaacs]

The seat as a whole is more affluent than I thought. I guess that there's a fair bit of rural-semi rural in it, judging by the size on the map. No wonder no Merseyside character lefiists could be bothered.

Very sold for Labour.

[Andy McDandy]

We've relatives in Parbold. Incredibly posh (the town, not the relatives).