[Arrowhead]

The date of this by-election has now been confirmed as 1st December 2022, so I suppose it merits a thread of its own.

The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson following accusations of serious sexual misconduct towards a junior member of staff. Matheson has denied any sexual misconduct, but decided to stand down anyway for health and family reasons.

Once a safe Tory seat, a Labour MP has been returned at every election since 1997 bar 2010 when the Tories briefly won it back. City of Chester was actually the #1 target seat for the Tories at GE2017, but Labour saw their majority climb from just 93 to over 9,000.

The constituency is estimated to have voted 42.3% Leave back in 2016.

[Arrowhead]

Liz Wardlaw, a nurse from Congleton and Cheshire East councillor, has been selected as the Tory candidate.

Samantha Dixon MBE, a councillor and former leader of Cheshire West & Chester Council, has chosen as the Labour candidate.

Any chance of an upset here? The current polling would suggest a very straightforward hold for Labour, but I wonder if the rather grisly circumstances surrounding the resignation of Chris Matheson may have a negative effect?

[Arrowhead]

An interesting forecast via Britain Predicts. Personally, I can't see the Tories dropping below 30% tonight, but we shall see soon enough......

[mattomac]

Interesting to note Ben Walker is a council candidate for the city of Chester next year, expects a low turnout.

So I expect talking much from these results isn’t the best thing, so expect analysis a plenty if it supports a Labour 12pt lead rather than 15pt or 20pt.

[Arrowhead]

Britain Elects are reporting a 41.2% turnout, which seems.............quite good, I think? Given the time of year etc?

Most winter by-elections are usually quite a bit lower than that, IIRC.

[The Weeping Angel]

[Arrowhead]

More or less as expected, although that Tory vote share is a real shocker. Labour will be feeling very happy overall.

Good to see the Reform numbskulls going nowhere, quite a few people were getting excited at the prospect of them passing 10%.

Anyway, the Branes Trust has spoken:

[Tubby Isaacs]

Corbyn did well in the first by election (Oldham West and Royton) but not particularly generally in council or parliamentary. His “I’d have shut down the biggest employer” pitch didn’t work in Copeland, strangely.

Wouldn’t you expect a “movement” to have been a bit more formidable? The 2017 election was very impressive, but as I always say, May did run on foxhunting, fewer cops, taking granny’s house and chucking out Uncle Peter’s Estonian home help.

[Oboogie]

Has Owen Jones called for Starmer's resignation yet?

[Bones McCoy]

There will be some who see the conservative loss, and reform's tiny gain as inextricably linked.
The same brane donors who blamed immigration for fewer christians at the census.

[Tubby Isaacs]

A surprising number of people BTL on the Guardian seem to be discovering dead cert by elections for the first time. Turnout, mannnn.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I was wondering who the Tory Chairman was. It's Nadim Zahawi. Is he going to come under pressure to do a Dowden and resign at some point?

If retirements keep coming, I would expect there to be the odd one that thinks "fuck it, I'll start the new job properly, now". The Sajmeister General said he was committed to Bromsgrove, but we'll see.

[mattomac]

Rentoul was banging on about swing before even though if you run it through any prediction website as well as a few such as British elects did the results were pretty spot, 1% in or out for Labour and overestimating the Tory vote.

Seems that additional vote went to the LDs., very much in line with the polling pretty much and after Birmingham and Wakefield it’s the 3rd of which to do so, though this was more of a test of the polling numbers.

Sir John Curtice seemed to be very positive about Labour currently and suggested a sizeable majority if the election was held today, it’s a very carry the vase process I feel.

[davidjay]

The one there always is:

[mattomac]

They will find something if Labour cruise home in a landslide.

[Arrowhead]

They will find something if Labour cruise home in a landslide.

"90 seat majority? Burgon would've got 180, time for Keith to stand down!!1!"

[Andy McDandy]

It'll be total votes vs 2017.

[Oboogie]

I've already seen, 'More people in Chester voted for Corbyn, under Starmer Labour's vote has collapsed'.

[Tubby Isaacs]

You know, looking at that result, I'm not entirely sure that reopening Brexit in a big way (something like rejoining the Single Market) would be a particularly smart move. I mean, I can respect the Green voters there, but there aren't that many of them.

[mattomac]

It’s pretty dumb to be fair, polling is all over the place and people will admit it’s been shite but would still vote for it.

Labour need to start building those European relationships again, it’s a long road back, Tories again floating independent agreements, that was batty in 2016.