[Arrowhead]

Tories win my PCC on the first round (West Mercia).

I'm presuming that outcome was fully expected? I've always considered Herefordshire, Shropshire etc to be very Tory, even if the Lib Dems had a bit of success there once upon a time.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah. Herefordshire and Shropshire are very rural overall, and Worcestershire is either rural or Brexit urban. The most urban part of Shropshire, Telford, is Brexit urban too.

Lib Dems held the Hereford seat till 2010 when the Tories were doing really shit. Quite surprised they could even do that, because Hereford isn't a very big city. They'd have to do OK in villages too probably. 20,000 majority now.

I'm in the other seat, North Herefordshire, used to be called Leominster. Nearly 25,000 majority here.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Actually, Worcester is a bit more mixed politically, to be fair. Lots of students, so perhaps an opportunity for Labour when they get their act together.

[The Weeping Angel]

Actually, Worcester is a bit more mixed politically, to be fair. Lots of students, so perhaps an opportunity for Labour when they get their act together.

It should be one of the campaign organisers said the Local Labour group on the council had a bad relationship with the students plus that Uni isn't very political.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Interesting. Wonder why not.

10,000 students and 1,000 staff. Lots of them will live (or vote) elsewhere, but that would seem to be an opportunity for the future.

[Arrowhead]

Labour actually put in a good performance in Worcester back in GE2017, cutting the Tory majority down to about 2,000 IIRC. The newly democratised local party then somehow contrived to select a conspiracy theorist fruitcake with multiple civil restraint orders against her name. She was quickly deselected, but the damage was already done.

[Bones McCoy]

Is my mind playing tricks?

I seem to remember May's unfortunate 2017 election was launched off the back of some poor Labour local results.

Mind you, the lesson from 2017 was "Corbyn is a winner who we should stick with".

[Tubby Isaacs]

I remember that. Hadn't seen this before. Her explanation. They aren't persuaded BTL.

https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/16 ... r-reports/

I expect she was very plausible. As she says here, she was a London Assembly constituency candidate. She talks about some clear discrepancies that I've never heard mentioned.

She says she told Worcester Labour about her court cases.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is my mind playing tricks?

I seem to remember May's unfortunate 2017 election was launched off the back of some poor Labour local results.

Mind you, the lesson from 2017 was "Corbyn is a winner who we should stick with".

Yeah, Apparently if you measure Starmer by those 2017 Jez locals, he doesn't look all that bad. If you measure him by 2016, he looks very bad indeed. I'll go with crap but maybe not quite pathetic this time.

Between those 2017 locals and the general, May managed to revive fox hunting, threaten granny's house, say your EU mates might get kicked out, and that she'd be sacking some more cops.

[Tubby Isaacs]

She also had interesting views on the Manchester concert bomb.

[mattomac]

Actually, Worcester is a bit more mixed politically, to be fair. Lots of students, so perhaps an opportunity for Labour when they get their act together.

It should be one of the campaign organisers said the Local Labour group on the council had a bad relationship with the students plus that Uni isn't very political.

One thing Swansea locally has been very good at is having a good relationship.

[Boiler]

One to upset the Brexit racists (whom I have discovered get very upset if you call them that because <insert pre- determined reason here> but they're not racist, how DARE you);

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... 21-268675/

[Tubby Isaacs]

One thing Swansea locally has been very good at is having a good relationship.

Excellent.

I never saw the road into Swansea from Neath until a few years ago. My impression was that a lot of regeneration had taken place, with all the student buildings.

I now realize I was completely wrong. Labour had failed the area by tacking it for granted, because students don't count as inward investment or regeneration. Only new factories do.

I'm also wondering how moving public sector jobs to Darlington is now regeneration. I'm old enough to remember when this was bad, because areas shouldn't be overdependent on government jobs.

[Bones McCoy]

One thing Swansea locally has been very good at is having a good relationship.

Excellent.

I never saw the road into Swansea from Neath until a few years ago. My impression was that a lot of regeneration had taken place, with all the student buildings.

I now realize I was completely wrong. Labour had failed the area by tacking it for granted, because students don't count as inward investment or regeneration. Only new factories do.

I'm also wondering how moving public sector jobs to Darlington is now regeneration. I'm old enough to remember when this was bad, because areas shouldn't be overdependent on government jobs.

And soft play areas.

[Boiler]

Mindful of Tracy Brabin's success and the by-election it will precipitate, Jo Cox's sister is planning to stand for election in Batley and Spen.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57090767

[Tubby Isaacs]

Reading about the Labour leader having lost his seat in Oldham, with allegations that he and Jim McMahon covered up grooming gangs in Oldham. This looks, well, unproven.

Charmers like this have had a lot to say about it.

The ex-council leader doesn't seem to have been very popular, but I'd trust him over this lot.

I'm told "local Facebook" in lots of places has this sort of thing going on against Labour councils.

[Tubby Isaacs]

More on Mr Miah here.

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/raja-miah-man ... acklisted/

Manchester Creative Studio and Collective Spirit Free School were shut in 2018 and 2017, respectively. Rolls were falling and both had large deficits.

A government investigation, published this May, cast “significant doubts” on the legitimacy of money paid to a company connected to Miah, but concluded it was too difficult to establish a money trail. The probe looked at just two years of transactions.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I know this is a mug's game, but I'm looking for comfort among the carnage. The West of England Mayoralty was even more of a Labour triumph than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_West ... l_election

Labour predictably ran up the score in Bristol, but if you take the other areas (five constituencies, none held by Labour), they were only about 3,000 behind. I wonder if the wider "Avon" area could be becoming better for Labour? You'd think there might be a few "citizens of nowhere" Bristol-Bath types in these other constituencies (NE Somerset, Kingswood, Filton and Bradley Stoke). Labour must be wishing they'd got past the Lib Dems in 2015 in Bath- they'd likely hold the seat now.

There's something else I notice about these. The Tories (despite getting hammered) seem to have got a big share of Lib Dem first rounders transfer to them. Obviously, there's always been Tories who vote Lib Dem in local elections sometimes, but if I were Labour I'd see these voters as a group that could be targeted in a general election. After all, hard to argue that this area was a priority for levelling up spaffing.

[Youngian]

There's something else I notice about these. The Tories (despite getting hammered) seem to have got a big share of Lib Dem first rounders transfer to them.

Would these voters notice a Lib Dem lurch to the centre left aimed at wooing Labour tactical voters? If not the LDs are in with a shout for an improved seat tally if they get rid of Ed Davey.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Lib Dems have Bath and are close to Labour in North East Somerset (albeit both miles behind Rees Mogg). And they're a good second in Thornbury and Yate (which isn't part of this mayoralty). Otherwise not very competitive.

I think Davey might have done better than Swinson in 2019. There wouldn't have been much talk of him being PM.