Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed May 04, 2022 10:22 pm
I'd rather have these. Labour do much better in England (with no separate London figure) and Wales, about the same in Scotland.
I would say that’s far too high, you have to remember places like Liverpool are electing, Labour were 95% control there, they will drop a few tonight I feel but the vote will hold up for it not to be too bad. However if Labour lose 5 in Liverpool but those 5 end up in the figures in say Soton that’s a good thing.
I think the Tories will lose about 200 and Labour pushing 200 would be a good night. Though even if the Tories collapse it will appear elsewhere in say LD and Others.
This isn’t a bad analysis though, I think anything lower than 200 is bad for the Tories but council gains are more important as I said above.
Half the seats tonight are Labour’s according to that analysis which suggests the Tories will appear bullish post election but really shouldn’t.
They have got two by elections upcoming that they need to survive. One thing I noted about by elections in councils is Labour have defended quite well without gains, I expect the same tonight.