[Tubby Isaacs]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Unit ... _elections

All the London boroughs up, and are a pretty large proportion of all the seats up nationwide. This ought to suit the Tories- they don't have very far to fall from last time, you'd think. But they could well lose Barnet (where the absence of Jez will help Labour) and Wandsworth (where Labour now holds all 3 MPs. Not too long ago, they only held 1 of them, and that by not all that much). Labour ought to win the popular vote in Westminster, but the Tory vote is very well distributed, so hard for them to lose that.

The Lib Dems already hold their SW London "heartland" councils. But what about the rest? They can't pull off their by-election game in London wide elections, but do they flip a lot of Tory voters on the back of general malaise and latching on to "monstrous towers" (ie much needed housing) that are planned?

The Tories did better than expected in the Mayor Election last year. Can they surprise again? Or was that a unique reaction to Khan's perceived failure with knife crime?

[Arrowhead]

Had my polling card arrive through the post the other day. Labour are absolutely nowhere in my neck of the woods, so it'll be either the Greens (who have actually been the main opposition here in Solihull since 2014) or the Lib Dems for me I suppose.

Nationwide and the Tories ought to be due a well-earned shellacking, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[The Weeping Angel]

Been doing some canvassing in my neck of the woods and from all accounts locally at least it's going well.

[Boiler]

Errr... 2022, surely?

None here this year.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Thanks, good spot.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Some interesting councils with a third of seats up. I've no idea why Labour haven't done better lately in Swindon and Southampton. Swindon has quite a big Tory majority, so they'll probably hold that. Southampton only a small majority, ought to be a Labour gain. Is there any chance Labour could make progress in Hartlepool?

Are the council in Wokingham trying to get houses built? If so, the Tories might lose that to the "Houses, of course, but not there" party otherwise known as the Lib Dems.

[Arrowhead]

This looks encouraging for Labour. Personally, I'd be delighted if Labour managed anything over 30% re the rural vote.

No idea why the Lib Dems aren't listed though, especially for the Cornwall numbers.

[soulboy]

Some interesting councils with a third of seats up. I've no idea why Labour haven't done better lately in Swindon and Southampton. Swindon has quite a big Tory majority, so they'll probably hold that.

Some insight into Swindon. Lots of new homeowners have moved into the borough, often from more traditional Tory heartlands.

The borough has grown from 180k to about 220k and rising since 2000. Most of that has been greenbelt development on the outskirts of the town, particularly to the North and South. A new Eastern Villages development is now springing up as well.

With property prices being a fraction of that in Bristol, Bath and Chippenham to the West, Reading and Newbury to the East and the Cotswold to the North these are being snapped up.

There has been a huge demographic shift with a lot of young professionals treating suburban Swindon as a dormitory town (as it would have been known when people still commuted).

[Tubby Isaacs]

Does that explain it? Younger professionals ought to break for Labour, shouldn't they?

[Andy McDandy]

My brother lives there. His local community association got hijacked by LDs and effectively turned into a constituency group, much to the anger of many members. Local fundraisers or events such as school fetes suddenly becoming "Swindon Old Town LDs hosted a fundraiser" on their advertising blurb. And yes, much pointing at potholes while frowning.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This looks encouraging for Labour. Personally, I'd be delighted if Labour managed anything over 30% re the rural vote.

No idea why the Lib Dems aren't listed though, especially for the Cornwall numbers.

Maybe Brexit is still hurting the Lib Dems in Cornwall? Before the Coalition they could do stuff like attack the Tories for being weak on fishing or whatever. I was surprised they didn't get much closer in St Ives in the election.

The Tories in my very rural Herefordshire romp home at Westminster, but voters have developed a bit of a tradition of voting for others in local elections. If that happens in other rural places, then that could be bad for the Tories.

[mattomac]

This looks encouraging for Labour. Personally, I'd be delighted if Labour managed anything over 30% re the rural vote.

No idea why the Lib Dems aren't listed though, especially for the Cornwall numbers.

Maybe Brexit is still hurting the Lib Dems in Cornwall? Before the Coalition they could do stuff like attack the Tories for being weak on fishing or whatever. I was surprised they didn't get much closer in St Ives in the election.

The Tories in my very rural Herefordshire romp home at Westminster, but voters have developed a bit of a tradition of voting for others in local elections. If that happens in other rural places, then that could be bad for the Tories.

Problem with St Ives is it’s seen it’s own demographic shift, they have absolutely nothing in Penzance and struggle in St Ives but hoover up places like Hayle and Carbis Bay. Not to mention the Isles of Scilly breaks for them. Be interesting next time if Brexit becomes more of a issue rather than a plus.

As for commuter you’d expect so in Southport that has certainly been the case from what I gather, with bath and Bristol they’ve probably been replaced by younger renters so ironically the shift has probably been the opposite. For Southport it didn’t surprise me that the two local MPs who are Tory launched a campaign to move to Lancashire recently, someone’s evidently worried.

As for London I’ve heard positive stuff from Wandsworth and I have a feeling the way Labour are hitting this area of Kingston that we may have some representation again in this area, LDs are getting whacked by this issue over the leisure centre and the sell off of the Guildhall (though if I’m honest I agree with the latter). Labour did well to the west in the mayoral elections so I think Wandsworth is a good chance. It struggled in the east especially in the outer areas with the carbon free zones. Also a lot of first preference went to the Greens so it looked worse for an incumbent when really it wasn’t that bad.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

LibDems may be a bit wobbly in Sutton:

https://insidecroydon.com/2022/04/01/su ... uty-quits/

But few signs that the Tories are upswinging. Labour pretty limp.

[davidjay]

Bit of an interesting one here - a definite pact in action.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Dreadful by elections last night for the Tories. Walloped by the Lib Dems in Surrey Heath and Maldon (the latter previously held by and Ind, but enormous Con-LD swing).

And this.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is absolute bollocks. Perhaps incredibly unsubtle expectation management, or as someone suggested, they don't know that only a third of seats are up in lots of areas.

[Boiler]

Your comments echo Chris Bryant's.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is the OP.

[The Weeping Angel]

Oh great

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... um=twitter

Labour chiefs have warned the party it is unlikely to be able to spin a compelling story of victory after next week’s local elections, calling Tory claims of 750 losses “ludicrous” and suggesting Labour may even lose “red wall” seats.

Shadow cabinet ministers warned the party was on “thin ice” when it came to its poll lead. This week the shadow levelling up secretary, Lisa Nandy, warned the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, that the party needed to switch its focus from attacking the prime minister over Partygate, to talking about the cost of living crisis.

Following Nandy’s warning, the Labour leader said on Tuesday that he had made the crisis a focus throughout the local elections. Starmer told reporters in Stevenage: “When we started the campaign, we had a laser-like focus on the cost of living and we’ve maintained that throughout.”

Labour aides are preparing a post-election narrative which would compare the party’s rise in vote share to a read-across on how many constituency seats the party could gain. The current electoral cycle is usually the most favourable for Labour, which already holds 50% of the seats up for election. In practice, this will mean it is harder to announce significant seat gains.

“This is going to be a very random set of elections where the story of the night is not immediately clear,” one senior Labour source said. “There will be some areas, including in seats we lost in 2019, where it will be clear we have far more work to do.”

Ward-by-ward, vote share will be watched to see how it may translate into seat gains in Westminster. Those under close observation include Bury, where all seats are up for election and where Tories were elected by narrow margins – though one MP, Christian Wakeford, defected to Labour in January. Birmingham Northfield is another area where Labour is hoping to be able to spin a gain.

[Youngian]

Oh great

Labour spinning its own expectation management to rally its vote. In the face of a poor Tory turnout.