[Boiler]

Simply waiting for their fall won't do it.

In one.

How many of us on here sat waiting for Trump to fall?

Was McDonnell right to say that the Labour candidate was sent in "naked of policies"? Because I have to say, a party that wants to be seen as a government in waiting needs those and I'm struggling to think of any.

Help me out here.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

But what about elsewhere Dudley, Sunderland, Harlow, Redditch and other councils yet to declare what does that say about us?

What am I supposed to say? That low educational levels doesn't matter?

Blaming the electorate never works.

The old cliché. It doesn't. But understanding the electorate works every time.

We had a saying in teaching: teach the class that you've got, not the one you want.

[The Weeping Angel]

Thoughts on this?

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Partly true.

But unavoidable. There are no credible Brexit voices in Labour, because it's socially destructive, economically insane and politically disastrous.

Besides which - old question - do we campaign on what we think will get us votes, or what we believe is right?

[The Weeping Angel]

Partly true.

But unavoidable. There are no credible Brexit voices in Labour, because it's socially destructive, economically insane and politically disastrous.

Besides which - old question - do we campaign on what we think will get us votes, or what we believe is right?

Well her argument is Labour should have gone for Lisa Nandy as she accepted Brexit.

[Crabcakes]

Luck had nothing to do with the vaccine rollout. It was planned properly and organised well. Kate Bingham deserves praise for it.

Luck did play a big part:
1. The dosing gap gamble was based on evidence from other vaccines, but it could have backfired and not been as effective or supply issues could have meant 2nd jab supplies were low, leaving the population half protected
2. an early spring could have seen the population out and about much earlier (even without pubs reopening). The cold weather stretching out to now means fewer people socialising still, so more people can be jabbed
3. Variants have (so far) still been effectively stopped by the existing vaccines
4. The effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing transmission has been better that expected
5. There could have been a much higher level of vaccine rejection because of the (utterly miniscule) blood clotting issue
6. Johnson could have subcontracted rollout, so it could have ended up like track & trace (which in itself shows he - or someone - knew this was their real way out so they couldn't risk fucking it up, even though there would have been serious money to make)

Seriously, there were some very lucky breaks for them.

[Crabcakes]

Simply waiting for their fall won't do it.

I didn't say it would. I'm saying there are unique circumstances here that won't be in play in future. It's still entirely possible to fuck up and there's absolutely a ton of work to do, but Johnson not having a massive contextual headstart will be welcome.

Trump didn't fall, right up until he did. Now he's a pathetic figure shambling round Mar a Lago, still banging on about stolen elections, and Biden is pushing through a remarkably progressive agenda that is hugely popular with his base, independents and even a significant chunk of Republicans. Rudy is looking at some serious jail time, and Trump himself is doubtless the main target of a number of investigations as well as facing looming bankruptcy from huge debts coming due. Would a big "A Few Good Men" moment with Trump have been nice? Sure. Am I happy though as he's not in office, his demands for loyalty are splitting the Republicans, and he's still very, very likely to see some court time in the near future? Absolutely.

Crushing your opponents is great if it happens. Stopping your opponents crushing people who can't help themselves is far, far more important though.

[Bones McCoy]

If we're on the subject of Trump and Crushing your enemies, I've already heard quite enough Lamentations of his women.

[Youngian]

What am I supposed to say? That low educational levels doesn't matter?

Does blaming the electorate help, though? I seem to recall an awful lot of that went on in the Corbyn years.

I'm not blaming them, I'm trying to explain why our message isn't getting through in the face of what is a superficially successful pandemic response by the Tories.

Johnson makes people feel good as Blair did before him. Neither are as intelligent as Gordon Brown or Starmer. Give Keir another year but the public won’t suddenly come round and appreciate his talents.

[Boiler]

Luck had nothing to do with the vaccine rollout. It was planned properly and organised well. Kate Bingham deserves praise for it.

Luck did play a big part:
1. The dosing gap gamble was based on evidence from other vaccines, but it could have backfired and not been as effective or supply issues could have meant 2nd jab supplies were low, leaving the population half protected
2. an early spring could have seen the population out and about much earlier (even without pubs reopening). The cold weather stretching out to now means fewer people socialising still, so more people can be jabbed
3. Variants have (so far) still been effectively stopped by the existing vaccines
4. The effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing transmission has been better that expected
5. There could have been a much higher level of vaccine rejection because of the (utterly miniscule) blood clotting issue
6. Johnson could have subcontracted rollout, so it could have ended up like track & trace (which in itself shows he - or someone - knew this was their real way out so they couldn't risk fucking it up, even though there would have been serious money to make)

Seriously, there were some very lucky breaks for them.

Respectfully Crabs, all apart from (6) is science, not luck - and importantly, has sod-all to do with Johnson.

[Boiler]

Partly true.

But unavoidable. There are no credible Brexit voices in Labour, because it's socially destructive, economically insane and politically disastrous.

In your opinion, but many others don't share that view.

Besides which - old question - do we campaign on what we think will get us votes, or what we believe is right?

How much do you want to get into power?

It could be argued that New Labour's success in 1997 was that they didn't look too different to the Tories thus were unlikely to scare the horses, but importantly at the time, did not have the taint of corruption that Major's party did.

It pains me to say this, but I don't think we'll be getting shot of Johnson and co. any time soon; in fact, we could be in for another 18-19 year tenure (to 2029) before they go.

Equally sadly (as I voted for him), I see Sir Keir's position as that of Kinnock in the post-Foot era and for much the same reasons. I don't see him standing outside No. 10, which fills me with sadness.

[Crabcakes]

Respectfully Crabs, all apart from (6) is science, not luck - and importantly, has sod-all to do with Johnson.

You sure?

Correctly hypothesising how a new vaccine technology would work when using a dosing regime based on a different product - luck (informed luck, I'll grant you - but luck nonetheless that results didn't differ)

Second guessing that supply lines for a new in-demand product would hold up - luck. If the Indian variant had come in sooner, or another variant hit europe, vaccine production could have been hit or diverted and our supply considerably more limited.

The weather being unusually cold even for Spring in the UK to keep people from gathering in large numbers in beaches and parks - OBVIOUSLY luck.

How rapid mutation variants behave in response to a treatment designed for a different variant - luck (this is why flu jabs are annual, not one and done for life)

A treatment being more effective in doing something that's a by-product of what its primary purpose is - luck (you could predict it would be effective in suppression, but not *more* effective than expected)

Which way the UK tabloids would go and how the public would take it about a classic fearmonger story - luck (ever hear of Andrew Wakefield?)

A reckless, corrupt Tory PM and useless Health Secretary *not* taking an opportunity to make more £££ from an already bung-strewn pandemic response? We all got lucky here that they didn't decide to make vaccine rollout and delivery a centrally government controlled thing.

We have had things happen at just the right time, things happen that have been unexpectedly better than thought, and things that we have been at the right stage to be able to ride out. The experiences of other countries shows just how badly wrong things can go. If the Kent variant had been the even more transmissable Indian variant. If Johnson had been persuaded to open up again sooner. If one of the vaccine manufacturers had had a plant issue earlier, or quality control problem. If The Sun had decided to run with "KILLER JABS" as a headline.

I really cannot stress enough how we have been incredibly lucky to be where we are now, all the moreso because of the overall incompetence and indifference of those in charge. Following science and sensible policies in an island nation gets you New Zealand. Our being in a better position now - but with tens of thousands dead - is down to some coins coming up heads rather than tails and a far-too late willingness to take this seriously.

[davidjay]

The more I think about it, the more I think basically, fuck it. If you can't beat 'em... The electorate have decided what they want, and what they want is a venal, lying, corrupt Prime Minister heading a government with no polices except for lining their own pockets and pandering to bigots. So bollocks to wanting a fairer society, to caring about others, because the thing that drives them isn't the desire to better themselves, it's hatred and fear. The hatred of anything that's different and the fear that They are going to make Us like Them. Why should I bother about someone who doesn't want me to?

[The Weeping Angel]

For a laugh the Northern Independence Party got 250 votes in Hartlepool.

[Crabcakes]

This is a pretty solid appraisal:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... 476272?2zp

[Crabcakes]

Also this, from the ever reliable Ian Dunt:

https://www.politics.co.uk/week-in-revi ... -disaster/

[Nigredo]

Anecdotal but my mate's NHS practice were aghast at the dosage changes to Pfizer as they reckoned they ought to be following the manufacturer's instructions.

[Boiler]

Respectfully Crabs, all apart from (6) is science, not luck - and importantly, has sod-all to do with Johnson.

You sure?

Correctly hypothesising how a new vaccine technology would work when using a dosing regime based on a different product - luck (informed luck, I'll grant you - but luck nonetheless that results didn't differ)

Second guessing that supply lines for a new in-demand product would hold up - luck. If the Indian variant had come in sooner, or another variant hit europe, vaccine production could have been hit or diverted and our supply considerably more limited.

The weather being unusually cold even for Spring in the UK to keep people from gathering in large numbers in beaches and parks - OBVIOUSLY luck.

How rapid mutation variants behave in response to a treatment designed for a different variant - luck (this is why flu jabs are annual, not one and done for life)

A treatment being more effective in doing something that's a by-product of what its primary purpose is - luck (you could predict it would be effective in suppression, but not *more* effective than expected)

Which way the UK tabloids would go and how the public would take it about a classic fearmonger story - luck (ever hear of Andrew Wakefield?)

A reckless, corrupt Tory PM and useless Health Secretary *not* taking an opportunity to make more £££ from an already bung-strewn pandemic response? We all got lucky here that they didn't decide to make vaccine rollout and delivery a centrally government controlled thing.

We have had things happen at just the right time, things happen that have been unexpectedly better than thought, and things that we have been at the right stage to be able to ride out. The experiences of other countries shows just how badly wrong things can go. If the Kent variant had been the even more transmissable Indian variant. If Johnson had been persuaded to open up again sooner. If one of the vaccine manufacturers had had a plant issue earlier, or quality control problem. If The Sun had decided to run with "KILLER JABS" as a headline.

I really cannot stress enough how we have been incredibly lucky to be where we are now, all the moreso because of the overall incompetence and indifference of those in charge. Following science and sensible policies in an island nation gets you New Zealand. Our being in a better position now - but with tens of thousands dead - is down to some coins coming up heads rather than tails and a far-too late willingness to take this seriously.

A slightly patronising response from you there Crabs, but I still favour science over luck.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

Patronising? Really?

[Boiler]

The more I think about it, the more I think basically, fuck it. If you can't beat 'em... The electorate have decided what they want, and what they want is a venal, lying, corrupt Prime Minister heading a government with no polices except for lining their own pockets and pandering to bigots. So bollocks to wanting a fairer society, to caring about others, because the thing that drives them isn't the desire to better themselves, it's hatred and fear. The hatred of anything that's different and the fear that They are going to make Us like Them. Why should I bother about someone who doesn't want me to?

It explains how someone as completely lacking in morals as Trump won over the Christian fundamentalists in America.