[Samanfur]

If the BBC don't keep Tice (and by extension Oakeshott) sweet, they might lose access to their pool of far-right contrarians to keep Politics Live and Question Time in guests.

[mattomac]

Only good thing is it reflects the polls quite as they are currently and that would be a hung parliament.

[Oboogie]

If the BBC don't keep Tice (and by extension Oakeshott) sweet, they might lose access to their pool of far-right contrarians to keep Politics Live and Question Time in guests.

The more votes Tice can take off the Tories the happier I shall be.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Lib Dems odds on with everybody in North Shropshire. Not sure these are great odds. They're a long way back, and there's more Con-Lab switching going on about than there was.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... y-election

[Youngian]

If the BBC don't keep Tice (and by extension Oakeshott) sweet, they might lose access to their pool of far-right contrarians to keep Politics Live and Question Time in guests.

The more votes Tice can take off the Tories the happier I shall be.

None of this week’s polling is showing the Brexit clown parties gaining ground from the Tory demise. The Greens are gaining a sizeable dustbin vote. I can live with that

[Youngian]

Lib Dems odds on with everybody in North Shropshire. Not sure these are great odds. They're a long way back, and there's more Con-Lab switching going on about than there was.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... y-election

Too many Labour people I’ve seen are more interested in a pissing contest with the LDs than removing the Tories. Stakes are too high for this nonsense. Don’t care who falls back in North Shropshire as long the Tories lose it. I’ll go with the maths.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Who are the tactical vote though? I'm not sure it isn't Labour.

[Abernathy]

I’m slightly worried that the by-election in North Shropshire this week, much as it is predicted as a massive Tory loss that will precipitate Johnson’s downfall, might see the anti-Johnson vote split between the Lib Dems and Labour, letting Johnson off the hook somewhat.

I’m reassured by the realisation that the Lib Dems will probably be the recipients of numbers of Shropshire Tories who are repulsed by Johnson and his antics and want to give him a kicking, but cannot quite bring themselves to vote Labour. But will that be sufficient?

If there is an informal arrangement between the LibDems and Labour, they’re both keeping fucking quiet about it.

[The Weeping Angel]

My worry is Labour are pushed into third.

[Arrowhead]

Anyone here brave enough to make a forecast for the North Shropshire vote? The bookies still seem to make the Lib Dems favourites, which would be a truly extraordinary result when one considers the electoral history of the constituency. Personally, I have a nagging worry that Johnson’s latest round of grownup presidential addresses may tip the balance back to the Tories (“Don’t rock the boat during a national crisis, old chap”, that sort of mindset).

One thing seems certain - Labour will most likely be pushed into a distant third place, so tomorrow we’ll have to endure the latest round of “But what about sTarMeR?” from the usual suspects.

[Abernathy]

The circumstances of this by-election in Shropshire, as they are in virtually every parliamentary by-election, are quite unique.

In one of the safest Tory seats in the country, where under normal circumstances Labour finishes in an albeit distant second place, reportedly huge numbers of erstwhile Tory voters are sufficiently enraged by the hypocrisy, lies, and corruption of their Prime Minister as to seek earnestly to use their votes in this by-election to administer a kicking to their Tory masters.

It would appear to be the case that the Lib Dems, as so often in the past, are more than willing to position themselves as the receptacle for those protesting Tory votes cast by usually staunch Tories who want to give "Boris" a kicking, but can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour. Whether those numbers are sufficient to turn Shropshire North into the Orpington de nos jours remains to be seen, but it still might do. If it does, it'll be remarkable. And yes, it could well bring Johnson down. I do think his rancid premiership is at or near its tipping point.

[Watchman]

Will some of them be thinking, if we do give him a wake up call, we’ve still got a safety net of 79

[The Weeping Angel]

The circumstances of this by-election in Shropshire, as they are in virtually every parliamentary by-election, are quite unique.

In one of the safest Tory seats in the country, where under normal circumstances Labour finishes in an albeit distant second place, reportedly huge numbers of erstwhile Tory voters are sufficiently enraged by the hypocrisy, lies, and corruption of their Prime Minister as to seek earnestly to use their votes in this by-election to administer a kicking to their Tory masters.

It would appear to be the case that the Lib Dems, as so often in the past, are more than willing to position themselves as the receptacle for those protesting Tory votes cast by usually staunch Tories who want to give "Boris" a kicking, but can't quite bring themselves to vote Labour. Whether those numbers are sufficient to turn Shropshire North into the Orpington de nos jours remains to be seen, but it still might do. If it does, it'll be remarkable. And yes, it could well bring Johnson down. I do think his rancid premiership is at or near its tipping point.

Labour should have put more effort into this by-election.

[Arrowhead]

Labour should have put more effort into this by-election.

I disagree, I think they’ve got it just right by quietly allowing the Lib Dems a full swing of the bat. As with Chesham & Amersham, these are just seats that Labour are simply never going to fully competitive in. The most important thing here is for an opposition party to land some telling blows.

Also, if these contests help rejuvenate the Lib Dems across much of rural England, then that is only going to cause further headaches for the Tories further down the road.

[The Weeping Angel]

Labour should have put more effort into this by-election.

I disagree, I think they’ve got it just right by quietly allowing the Lib Dems a full swing of the bat. As with Chesham & Amersham, these are just seats that Labour are simply never going to fully competitive in. The most important thing here is for an opposition party to land some telling blows.

Also, if these contests help rejuvenate the Lib Dems across much of rural England, then that is only going to cause further headaches for the Tories further down the road.

Labour have finished second in that seat since 1997.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Lib Dems are much better at getting dustbin votes and Tory switchers in by-elections. I reckon they're the better call. The Lib Dems are also skilled at the "local" angle whereby a candidate can say just about anything and nobody thinks "Hang on, that's what not what your leader says!" because Lib Dem leaders aren't as well known.

It ought to be very easy to defend, given that the by-election specialist party are so far back, and it being a Kippery seat.. Anything close is a shit result.

[davidjay]

Every so often voters in a rock-solid Tory seat out in the shires like to remind their party that a) you're becoming an embarrasment and b) they're not like "that other lot, they'd vote for a donkey with a red rosette on its backside hur hur hur". They wouldn't do it in a general election because they're convinvced that a Labour government would have the hammer & sickle flying from every town hall by teatime and Brenda's head on a spike by Monday but they will do it in a bye-election. And while they wouldn't under any circumstances vote Labour, they will vote for what they still call the Liberals. That's why Labour are doing the right thing in not contesting today too seriously.

[Boiler]

Tomorrow should be interesting.

[davidjay]

The bad news is that the Tories are 8/11 when they were 6/4 a week ago.

[Boiler]

The bad news is that the Tories are 8/11 when they were 6/4 a week ago.

People feeling the need to rebel against Covid restrictions?