[Boiler]

With Johnson, it could be much quicker. People associate him directly with the release from lockdown this year and freedom day. But the way things are going makes it inevitable some restrictions will be brought back - perhaps even another lockdown. It doesn't matter how grovelling or sorry or regretful he is on TV, that will be seen as betrayal and he won't survive it.

There'll not be another lockdown. Not only will the greater part of the population resist it (social media and BTL comment sections will be awash with "you be a coward and cower behind the sofa if YOU want but don't stop ME going about my business" comments), HMG will know it'll make them unpopular even if it means we run out of refrigerated containers to keep the deceased in and there's nothing Johnson likes more than to be adored.

We genuinely could end up with a lot more than a few dead going unburied (as in 1979) but our client media will sweep it under the carpet this time.

[Crabcakes]

There'll not be another lockdown. Not only will the greater part of the population resist it (social media and BTL comment sections will be awash with "you be a coward and cower behind the sofa if YOU want but don't stop ME going about my business" comments), HMG will know it'll make them unpopular even if it means we run out of refrigerated containers to keep the deceased in and there's nothing Johnson likes more than to be adored.

The thing is, the virus doesn't care one jot about Johnson and his popularity or otherwise. If a lockdown is needed, because everyone is getting sick and people's children are off school more than they're there, and older people (AKA Tory voters) start getting sick again - as is already happening - then it'll happen. Then the instruction will come down from Uncle Rupert's office to pin this on Johnson's short-sightedness and indecision and anoint a successor.

I don't think things will necessarily be *better*, but to think jolly old Boris can weather any storm is wrong. When he stops being useful to the people who bankroll the tories, he'll stop getting an easy ride.

[Boiler]

Agreed, the virus doesn't care a jot about Johnson.

Trouble is, a lot of Brits don't care about the virus either.

As has already been demonstrated, the bulk of infections are now amongst schoolchildren but I see no one up in arms about it.

[Oboogie]

I can't find the COVID thread.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He is falling, at the moment. Sure, he's still super-popular with a big chunk of Republicans, but he's also increasingly unable to get anywhere with his schemes and has a lot of lawsuits and cases on his to do list. When it comes to another presidential run I'm sure he'll want it for petty revenge, but:
1. while 3/4 of republicans want Trump back, the majority of Americans don't. A Trump run this time is starting out from a point of being a *guaranteed* loss
2. he might not still be at liberty to even make a presidential run, given his financial woes
3. when he endorses people against his enemies, his enemies do better: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/16/poli ... index.html

Plus there's a reason he's trying to block the release of official white house records around what happened in January, and why Bannon is trying to run away from it. Bannon wants to be prosecuted because then he get to make a plea bargain, because he knows Trump was involved and the records probably show Trump was involved.

It's not going to end in a big "gotcha!" like we'd all enjoy, but as he increasingly becomes a liability people will slip away.

With Johnson, it could be much quicker. People associate him directly with the release from lockdown this year and freedom day. But the way things are going makes it inevitable some restrictions will be brought back - perhaps even another lockdown. It doesn't matter how grovelling or sorry or regretful he is on TV, that will be seen as betrayal and he won't survive it.

I'm assuming he doesn't run in 2024. If he does, then that's where the fall will more likely come.

In the meantime, he's still there, and will turnout voters for the Republicans in the mid terms, in a way that nobody can for Democrats. As Arrowhead said of the Tories, the Republicans can run essentially an official campaign and a Trump campaign.

I wouldn't stake too much on financial problems. He's not as rich as he says, but he's rich, with lots of assets he can sell if he feels he's too much in debt. He got himself out of deep shit of a few years ago, where hardly anybody would lend to him. Will any of the business cases lead anywhere? Doubtless to some dubious tax stuff and lying to regulators, but not sure he'll be heading to jail. He has a knack of keeping out of the trouble he always looks like he should be in.

[Boiler]

I can't find the COVID thread.

I shouldn't like that... but I do.

[kreuzberger]

I can't find the COVID thread.

I shouldn't like that... but I do.

It/they should be in Other Political anyway, no?

[Oboogie]

It/they should be in Other Political anyway, no?

No. I made the same mistake. It's actually in Life Outside Mailwatch and COVID is too common a word for the search engine to find.

[Tubby Isaacs]

[RedSparrows]

Remember when Italy was facing Covid full on and Britain was like 'yo, those silly Latin types'.

Yeah.

[mattomac]

I thought it was the “Vaccine…done”.

[Youngian]

Remember when Italy was facing Covid full on and Britain was like 'yo, those silly Latin types'.

Yeah.

Remember when even the Tories attracted serious grownups like Draghi? Before it became a party of Salvinis and Berlusconis

[satnav]

I think travel correspondent Simon Calder hit the nail on the head earlier today when he said most of Europe will ban Brits entering after the half-term holidays are over. More short-termism from Johnson which will do major damage to the travel industry.

[davidjay]

What will it take for people to get angry?

[Samanfur]

I really don't know any more.

[Watchman]

When the Mail tells them that Megan Markle and people from a Kent dinghy are going to appear in Eastenders (3 for the price of 1!)
Because they are too stupid or in denial to complain about what really matters

[Boiler]

What will it take for people to get angry?

Some are angry now: but realistically, what can you do about it?

Your only legal recourse is in three years time at the ballot box - but there will be plenty of people who will want "more of the same, please - I'm all right." I'm ashamed to say I've ceased voting as round here anything but Conservative is a futile gesture. I'll have those 15 minutes for myself, ta.

I can see a reduced Conservative majority at the next GE, but I definitely don't see PM Starmer.

[Crabcakes]

I think the turning point here is they have - out of laziness or complacency or ineptitude, or a heady mix of all 3 - fucked it at the last hurdle. If they'd *just* been arsed to get cracking on boosters earlier and sorted kids, they'd have - utterly undeservedly, and far more by luck than judgement - been home and dry: transmission and spread in schools would have been drastically lower, and the 3rd jab has now been shown to offer an exceptionally high level of resistance against transmission and developing the disease. Old(er) people would be safe, and we'd already be looking at boosters for the 40-50 age group.

But jolly old Boris had to have his summer release, and more jabs? Seems a bit too much like an admission of failure, chaps. No rush on that one. They have absolutely snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and a long, cold winter of covid deaths, treatment postponements, rising costs and supply shortages might hopefully open more eyes.

[Boiler]

It depends on where we are in 2024. *If* Covid becomes just a nuisance, no-one will remind the public what they did in 2020 - "yebbut that was years ago".

I have a feeling Johnson will hang on to the end, unless a miracle presents itself in the interim that he can claim his own.

[Crabcakes]

The absence of parents, grandparents and siblings will be noticed for some time to come, I suspect.

Plus the Tories seem to be trying to turn the public against GPs just now, and who knows what state the NHS will be in 3 years. If Labour don't go with a campaign based around "if you clapped for carers now vote to support them", they'd be mad