[davidjay]

5% is a big swing though.

Normally yes, but these are strange times.

[Nigredo]

I'm doubtful of whether we'll see 1997 again but we may see 2010 with the roles reversed (i.e. a longstanding government that is long out of ideas or energy that people are just tired of and vote for the other big party without a great deal of thought, just to see something change).

[Youngian]

From a Dutch newspaper. To the point.

[Cyclist]

Just making sure we don't forget this part of Johnson's legacy...

The British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has lost an appeal against a second jail sentence in Iran.

Her family said on Saturday that there had been no court hearing, but her lawyer was informed of the outcome.

First jailed for five years in 2016 after being accused of plotting against the regime, she was sentenced to another year's confinement in April on charges of "spreading propaganda".

She spent the final year of her term on parole at her parents' home in Tehran.

But concerns have been raised that Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe may now be sent back to prison.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-58940458

A casual lie made by a Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs has consequences. This is Johnson's doing.

[Nigredo]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... d-25235587

Strange how the righter side of the fourth estate didn't kick up a fuss about this at the time.

[kreuzberger]

Does Nimco Ali not realise that Sascha and pals would mandate FGM of they though that their mates could make a buck or two out of it?

[Andy McDandy]

It's the sort of feminism they like. It doesn't impact on the average voter's life, has a bit of white man's burden about it, and is another proxy Muslim bash.

[Nigredo]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... g-problems

Max Hastings lambasts his former employee once again.

Pastebin link here in case there's a paywall: https://pastebin.com/QQfPpgkJ

[Bones McCoy]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... g-problems

Max Hastings lambasts his former employee once again.

Pastebin link here in case there's a paywall: https://pastebin.com/QQfPpgkJ

And there's that quote again:

My neighbor stuck to her guns, saying stubbornly: “He is doing the best he can.” She does not merely like him, she loves him.

Like Little Johnny who smears poster paint all over the craft corner seating.

[RedSparrows]

Hastings is enormously optimistic with the following phrase: 'For us, as for most nations, the likeliest route to happiness is to have a sensible idea of where we fit in.'

I'd suggest that for most instances, whether individual or group, the whole battle is getting that to even be considered honestly. I agree with him absolutely, but the world is in no small way built on a concerted effort to facilitate the human need to ignore this. Johnson is the lead practitioner of it, even.

[Youngian]

And there's that quote again:

My neighbor stuck to her guns, saying stubbornly: “He is doing the best he can.” She does not merely like him, she loves him.

Like Little Johnny who smears poster paint all over the craft corner seating.

Johnson’s fall is going to be like Trump’s; a complete catastrofuck at running things will convince a wafer thin section of supporters he might be a wrong ‘un. Except Trump was up against a single opponent making his departure easier.

[Boiler]

Johnson’s fall is going to be like Trump’s; a complete catastrofuck at running things will convince a wafer thin section of supporters he might be a wrong ‘un.

A nasty modern five pound note says you're wrong and there'll be no fall from grace.

[RedSparrows]

Of course there will. Or rather, there already has been outside his hardcore, and he'll not be PM forever, and thus will be mercifully ignored by the vast majority thereafter.

[Boiler]

Mmm, we shall see...

[Youngian]

Johnson’s fall is going to be like Trump’s; a complete catastrofuck at running things will convince a wafer thin section of supporters he might be a wrong ‘un.

A nasty modern five pound note says you're wrong and there'll be no fall from grace.

£100 says that’s the same call you made about Trump this time last year.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Has Trump fallen?

Still by far the most popular politician among Republicans who are looking a good bet to win back the House and Senate at the moment.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Christmas bubble thing hasn't really taken off yet, but it might. In the meantime, Carl Bernstein is on the case.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Good points as ever by Giles Wilkes about government policy- assuming that wages rise in more than a handful of sectors, which they might not.

And as Mark Gregory asks BTL, what does Johnson expect employers to do in response? Lots of things they might choose to do (offshore, outsource, reduce hours worked) aren't very cuddly. I always talk about the kid in my school chess team who confidently went into a match as having learned an opening for the first time. He lost and complained that the other guy had played the opening wrong.

[RedSparrows]

Has Trump fallen?

Still by far the most popular politician among Republicans who are looking a good bet to win back the House and Senate at the moment.

Of course he has. He's not President. That's not the same as 'nobody cares anymore', which is a pretty high bar to get over.

[Crabcakes]

Has Trump fallen?

Still by far the most popular politician among Republicans who are looking a good bet to win back the House and Senate at the moment.

He is falling, at the moment. Sure, he's still super-popular with a big chunk of Republicans, but he's also increasingly unable to get anywhere with his schemes and has a lot of lawsuits and cases on his to do list. When it comes to another presidential run I'm sure he'll want it for petty revenge, but:
1. while 3/4 of republicans want Trump back, the majority of Americans don't. A Trump run this time is starting out from a point of being a *guaranteed* loss
2. he might not still be at liberty to even make a presidential run, given his financial woes
3. when he endorses people against his enemies, his enemies do better: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/16/poli ... index.html

Plus there's a reason he's trying to block the release of official white house records around what happened in January, and why Bannon is trying to run away from it. Bannon wants to be prosecuted because then he get to make a plea bargain, because he knows Trump was involved and the records probably show Trump was involved.

It's not going to end in a big "gotcha!" like we'd all enjoy, but as he increasingly becomes a liability people will slip away.

With Johnson, it could be much quicker. People associate him directly with the release from lockdown this year and freedom day. But the way things are going makes it inevitable some restrictions will be brought back - perhaps even another lockdown. It doesn't matter how grovelling or sorry or regretful he is on TV, that will be seen as betrayal and he won't survive it.