Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Crabcakes wrote:5164 days down, 4 to go

Won't lie but do feel a bit squeaky bum about it. I just don't trust the electorate, particularly the "I'm alright Jack" lot, not to let the Tories off the hook.

There’s a lot of ‘don’t knows’ out there that can completely skewer polling predictions and it doesn’t feel in the bag for Labour on the doorsteps. Maybe if you’re Labour, you have a built in caution bias. It’s the hope that kills.

Phil Moorhouse doesn’t consider the don’t know factor much in this otherwise very well argued prediction of an unprecedented crushing Tory defeat.

He's good, isn't he?

Somebody pointed out the other day how the shitness of lots of TV politics has left a gap for politics podcasts. Phil's filling some of the same territory, I reckon.

TV politics seems to be stuck in a pre-Internet age, where reporters with inside knowledge breathlessly explain things to the morons at home. Where world affairs are Those Scary Forrins or Those Kerraaazy Yanks, where the likes of Kuennesberg and Peston are just ridiculously pompous and pumped up with their own self-importance (think back to the Joe Lycett episode). There's massive room for not treating the audience like idiots, and yes, some of these podcasts are very good at filling it.

Dalem Lake wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:16 pm

Crabcakes wrote:5164 days down, 4 to go

Won't lie but do feel a bit squeaky bum about it. I just don't trust the electorate, particularly the "I'm alright Jack" lot, not to let the Tories off the hook.

I just think back to 4 years ago, where we would have bitten the arm off anyone offering a hung parliament or minority govt.

I just think back to 4 years ago, where we would have bitten the arm off anyone offering a hung parliament or minority govt.

Reading a poll where Labour is nosing it ahead of the Tories was cause for celebration.

According tonight's local news Sunak has not campaigned at all in the Yorkshire region apart from a few visits to his own constituency in North Yorkshire. This suggests that the party has given up on the red wall seats in Yorkshire which they won at the last general election.

I think in just about every general election, there is someone, generally from the party whom the polls indicate is cruising inexorably to crushing defeat,, who says that there are still a lot of “don’t knows” out there, implying that all or most of those “don’t knows” are going to swing their way at the eleventh hour and save their (in this case obviously the Tories ) bacon. It’s not really very convincing. Are there really voters who look at the 14 year landscape of wanton Tory damage to just about everything, and are genuinely still thinking about casting their vote to give these cunts another five years ? I’m not buying that.

I know I’m a cynical old political geek, but I’m afraid I regard these alleged “don’t now” voters with something bordering on contempt. None of these peoples’ status of “don’t know” can possibly be genuine, except for a handful of dribbling knuckle dragging morons. Most of them probably respond that way just to get rid of the pollster. If you really don’t know after 14 years of shite, I’m afraid you are a drooling knucle-dragging moro.

I know I’m a cynical old political geek, but I’m afraid I regard these alleged “don’t now” voters with something bordering on contempt. None of these peoples’ status of “don’t know” can possibly be genuine, except for a handful of dribbling knuckle dragging morons. Most of them probably respond that way just to get rid of the pollster.

That’s why they’re a problem, these are not people who are going to be won over by Labour at the last minute. They’re disgruntled Tories who will fall back on what they know.

Was told by a friend this week that they would be spoiling their ballot paper, because "that'll show 'em".

Nope. And I told him so, but couldn't shake him. And he's 84...

satnav wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 8:07 pm According tonight's local news Sunak has not campaigned at all in the Yorkshire region apart from a few visits to his own constituency in North Yorkshire. This suggests that the party has given up on the red wall seats in Yorkshire which they won at the last general election.

Not just Red Wall seats either. I guess some like Andrea Jenkyns and Philip Davies might not fancy him showing up, but there must be lots of others who would like him to show up. Is he really writing off Selby, for instance? Notional majority 29.2%.

Seems bad form too to be doing visits in his own constituency (majority 46.9%). Are any others with this sort of majority being visited? I have a funny feeling that he's not spending much time in Ludlow and Rutland.

My partner's sister has no interest in politics and no intention of voting. She turned 21 in 2010, so for most of her adult life she has known a Tory or coalition government.

She's by no means happy with the state of things, but has nothing to compare with. When we saw her a few weeks ago, she said "they're all liars and Labour will just put your taxes up, so why bother?".

The Conservative Twitter feed is run by YTS boys, we know that. But Ministers of the Crown would obviously show more discernment before weighing in, right?

Unfortunately people are on hand BTL to point out that Dominic Raab stayed on holiday when Kabul fell.

Ha ha ha. It gets better.

So Starmer gets told on a Friday night that Putin has invaded Finland. Does he say “leave me alone, I’m having family time.”

Does he fuck.

Also, is Shapps aware of the concept of time zones?

Hilarious by Cleverly here. Majorities of 144 and 80 for the Tories aren't supermajorities or too big, because "it's about what you do with them".

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 8:42 pm Was told by a friend this week that they would be spoiling their ballot paper, because "that'll show 'em".

Nope. And I told him so, but couldn't shake him. And he's 84...

Well, it will in a sense, as a spoilt paper, all of which are examined, counted, and declared at every count, does send a kind of “none of the above” message that people opposed to compulsory voting always trot out without considering that it already exists.

Youngian wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2024 8:37 pm

I know I’m a cynical old political geek, but I’m afraid I regard these alleged “don’t now” voters with something bordering on contempt. None of these peoples’ status of “don’t know” can possibly be genuine, except for a handful of dribbling knuckle dragging morons. Most of them probably respond that way just to get rid of the pollster.

That’s why they’re a problem, these are not people who are going to be won over by Labour at the last minute. They’re disgruntled Tories who will fall back on what they know.

Some of them will be disgruntled Tories.
Some of them will be shy Tories.
Some of them will be people who intend to vote but lack the time or inclination to talk to a pollster.
Some of them won't vote for one of several reasons.
It's actually appropriate to label them "don't knows", not because they don't know but because we don't know what they're going to do or why because they won't tell us.

Three more days.