- Thu May 26, 2022 5:04 pm
#26453
Right so. The final Sue Gray report has been published, and its contents are truly appalling. As widely predicted, Johnson is stubbornly refusing to resign, so the onus falls on the 359 Tory MPs currently in parliament. Only they have the power to compel Johnson to go. So far there has been only a handful of Tories prepared publicly to denounce Johnson and call for him to step down.
Johnson has gone from being an election-winning, charismatic electoral asset to an electoral liability in little over 2 years. I’d expect opinion polls to confirm an even bigger slide in his popularity in the next few days. Even the support drones routinely sent into TV and radio studios to defend him obviously don’t believe all that got all the big decisions right crap any more -if they ever did, and the days of “Good ’ol Boris” are surely over.
As ever, I’m interested in motivation. In short, why *wouldn’t* Tory MPs decide to ditch Johnson and install a more credible and acceptable leader? At least one of them is reported as making the observation that the day Johnson got away with Partygate is also the day the Tories lost the next general election.
There is precedent. In 1990, the Tories decided to replace the unpopular Margaret Thatcher with the ostensibly dull, yet apparently trustworthy John Major. Two years later, they won the general election against a Labour Party led by Neil Kinnock, which seemed to be perceived by electors as not ready for government.
Now, in 2022, with probably 2 years until the next election, the Tories actually have the chance to repeat the trick. Show Johnson the door, and install a leader who is more acceptable to electors, and more importantly, poses less of a risk to their chances of holding their seats.
Who is the 2022 John Major? well, there are actually some very viable aternatives. The Tories do need to eschew populist right-wing alternatives like Truss and Patel, though someone like Mordaunt might prove attractive. . Sunak may well have effectively ruled himself out thanks to the non-dom scandal, and Gove is probably a non-starter. Javid will, I guess be a contender.
If they’re at all wise (and I realise that ‘s quite a big assumption), they’ll go for someone that represents a complete rejection of everything that Johnson stands revealed to be. Jeremy Hunt will be obviously back in the frame, but humane, straight, sensible candidates like Tom Tugendhat , Ben Wallace,or even Tobias Ellwood really ought to be in the running.
But as I say, surely the Tories’ calculus simply must mean that they need to ditch Johnson , and right soon.
"The opportunity to serve our country: that is all we ask.” John Smith, May 11, 1994.