[Andy McDandy]

Is there a time limit for that? Just thinking they'll try to kick this the other side of the summer recess if they can.

[Crabcakes]

This poll looks like the ideal starting point to fight 5 by-elections!

https://www.threads.net/t/CuYym2Jtch0/? ... BiNWFlZA==

[Malcolm Armsteen]

I'll take that.

[Bones McCoy]

The REF polling looks worryingly high.

Historic wisdom suggests their type need a mere 15% to stage a successful putsch.

[Youngian]

The combined Tory/Ref vote hasn’t fallen below 30%. The good news is that each year it becomes more demographically infeasible for a nativist coalition to reach 40%.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That's what they said in the US. Nativists can find new voters in surprising places if they go looking for them, which they hadn't really until fairly recently.

Think it's very unlikely that Reform have that level of support in reality. They don't have the overriding single issue that UKIP and the Brexit Party did. I guess we'll know a lot more after the by elections.

[Bones McCoy]

That's what they said in the US. Nativists can find new voters in surprising places if they go looking for them, which they hadn't really until fairly recently.

Think it's very unlikely that Reform have that level of support in reality. They don't have the overriding single issue that UKIP and the Brexit Party did. I guess we'll know a lot more after the by elections.

It's possibly natural Tories attempting to "send a message".

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'd settle for this too. I think it'll be closer because of ULEZ, but Labour should win.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Same article refers to Labour being 12 points up in Selby and Ainsty. That is almost too good to be true.

[Yug]

Think it's very unlikely that Reform have that level of support in reality. They don't have the overriding single issue that UKIP and the Brexit Party did. I guess we'll know a lot more after the by elections.

Who cares? As long as they split the Tory vote, what else matters?

[Andy McDandy]

The Kip attracted people who just wanted out of the EU, and didn't care much for their other policies. One acquaintance of mine (and Kipper) said that the little Englander crap wasn't an issue, because they'd never be in power to enact it.

With the Brexit party as well, there was a significant "enough of this already, someone do something" vote, as per the Red Wall in 2019. With Reform/Reclaim/Rectum, they're all about being the "alternative" to the mainstream and are more outwardly fash.

[Youngian]

UK won’t be any different to the rest Europe in having a hard right populist party on 10-15 percent. There’s still dark skinned people walking the streets that Brexit didn’t magic away. Add other culture war crap and conspiracy nutters to the party and you have a base. Tories have to decide whether to chase them or beg Rory Stewart to come back, either way they’ll lose voters.

[Youngian]

Bannerman’s not all the thing but extra popcorn if it is true

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is spectacularly bad by a sozzled looking Johnny Mercer. I don't watch Question Time, but my impression is that Fiona Bruce doesn't generally feel obliged to call out Tories like she rightly does here.

Who are they sending out next week? The Ghost of John McCrirrick?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Johnny (who used to be in the army, apparently) fights back.

From what I've seen Dale Vince didn't quite come across as the evil puppetmaster the Tories are banking on.

This is the first time I've seen somebody who restricts replies get such a hiding BTL.

[Andy McDandy]

Fucking hell. That was awful. No wonder the other panellists were just sitting there agape.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wasn't it just?

I thought he was going to say "Labour are making big green promises while not telling you where the funding would come from". For some reason he says "Labour are saying they're green but taking money off Just Stop Oil", which is false and wouldn't be contradictory if it was true. That was a drunk standard attempt at an argument.

[Bones McCoy]

Says Bullshit-ometer.
Means Brethalyser.

Some regiment missed their rum-ration yesterday evening.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I see that episode was filmed in Fleetwood. I was surprised.. By the look of Mercer, I thought it had been filmed in Leeds, with him having hot footed it straight there from the test match.

[Bones McCoy]

Meanwhile, even the Conservative Home regulars are tired of the never-ending culture war.

(See comments for examples)

Sarah Ingham: Our Armed Forces are too bogged down in the culture wars to focus on a real one

https://conservativehome.com/2023/07/07 ... -real-one/

A good example here

Call me a flag-addled patriot, but I think the armed forces are capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time if it wills it.
This piece is based around a fallacy of false dilemma that is obvious as soon as your reverse the argumentation; the armed forces are so focused on warfare that they don't give a toss about equality, fairness, legitimacy of force in a democratic citizen army or the well-being of their people.
Would that be something to be proud of, desirable, would it even work?
I say no.
If you read the letters of Montgomery, Slim, even "The Auk" in the IWM you will see they personally capable of all the above, often in the same paragraph, never mind the institution being capable of thinking about two things at once.


What this piece really says is that you want your politics enforced on the army (which you pretend are somehow neutral, universal or non-existent, your book was confused on this) and in any case you now think legitimacy isn't important so we might as well hire PMC Wagner (if you genuinely believe nothing else matters) and save some cash.