[The Weeping Angel]

Not sure how this chimes with get Britain building.

https://www.ft.com/content/b310606f-2ed ... 93dfe305a6

[Tubby Isaacs]

Getting Britain building is more about private sector housing than public infrastructure.

I think the public sector pay claims have to be met in full, no alternative really. Thatcher committed before 1979 to honouring the Clegg Commission on public sector pay, and did so, despite all the criticism they'd made of public sector strikes. But it's sub-optimal to raid capital budgets (such as they exist) for current expenditure. I suppose the plan is to establish "credibility" with markets and hope that the borrowing costs come down substantially- they're much higher than in the George Osborne era.

I hope there are some tax rises in the budget to minimise this though.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So junior doctors' deal agreed, and seems like public sector review body claim will be met too. I think this is sensible.

A lot of focus on the black hole. I don't know what was budgeted by the previous government for these settlements, but I'm sure it was a fair bit less than what the new government have settled on. So you've got a few billion of black hole for a start right there.

I'm not convinced all the scheduled (and unfunded) investment projects are good value, so maybe cancellation of some is no bad thing. But there are other things that are good value and necessary, and should be going ahead. I can see why they want to keep things fairly tight in the first year, and we'll have to see how the budget goes.

[Tubby Isaacs]

A fair bit of focus on shifting money from capital revenue. But in this case, settling these disputes will save a lot of disruption in strikes. That's not capital investment, but it's certainly got payback if you think of it like investment. Estimate cost of junior doctors' strikes alone have been £3bn. Add the costs of teachers strikes (lots of people have to cancel work to look after kids, civil servants etc) and you're up to a lot of money.

It's useful to think of capital and current spending, but I think it's also useful to think in broader terms in terms of investment in state capacity sometimes. This is definitely an investment in state capacity, in that there'll be a lot more of it if these deals are agreed.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wow, she's restricted winter fuel allowance. That's brave.

Hunt's atttacked her for accepting the pay review settlements and says that's half the shortfall. I don't think this argument is going to fly. I can remember a lot of criticism of Labour before the election for not committing to figures for pay settlements before the election. Doubtless the same people will be praising them now, right?

Her plans do have a silly £3bn departmental savings figure in them. This won't be met.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wow.

no account taken in spending plans of higher-than-target inflation or public sector pay awards above 2%.

The amount of strikes this would have provoked doesn't bear thinking about.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yep.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Narrator- winter fuel payments are devolved to Scotland.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm amazed that you can't just avoid the VAT by prepaying. Except I'm not. I am amazed though that some schools seriously told parents this might work.

[Watchman]

I can’t remember if it was someone here, that mentioned that these schools charge what they like, because if they had raised fees just by inflation over the past 10 years, these parents would be paying nowhere near what they currently are. They never seem to quibble about that, mainly because how much school fees you pay is really a “dick swinging” contest.

[Abernathy]

Absolutely true. Private schools are all hiking their fees up every 12 months anyway, so an extra 20% on top is going to be chicken feed to affluent parents, who view paying little Rupert’s school fees as an essential and necessary expense and will simply suck it up as they do the annual rise every time.

The sole reason they’re kicking off about it is that it’s a measure being introduced by a Labour government that will go some way - however minute - to realising a modicum of equality. They want to keep rising above the plebs by dint of superior financial resource, and don’t want that grotesque privilege to be jeopardised by a bunch of lefties.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It won't be an extra 20%, because they get to claim input VAT back. So more like 15%, but still substantial. They did though know this was coming, and if they haven't started budgeting for it when the policy was announced, they've been very silly.

Fees have been raised above inflation for years because of a silly arms race on facilities and staff numbers. I feel sorry for some of the staff who'll lose their jobs, but that's cricket.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I didn't know much about this, but seems like it was very much a Sunak thing. And I have seen some people say that T-Levels (which would have been replaced) ought to be kept. So seems like a relatively painless cut.

Lots of BTL Guardian stuff that this is "austerity". Has anyone done the Maths? Quite a bit extra spending on public sector wages, but some cuts in other things. And we haven't had the budget yet.

[soulboy]

Cricket? What's that?

Our comp sold off everything but the AstroTurf football pitch. A 20 metre flick off the hips was a six when we played cricket. This may inform the amount of Windsor Davies I have for those struggling with school fees.

[Tubby Isaacs]

A Tory MP going for Labour on cancelling major rail projects is a good one.

Actually, what rail projects have been cancelled today anyway? The Restore Your Railway fund had £85m in it. All to do studies that then go nowhere because no funds to do what they suggest.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yep. The SNP are incredibly dishonest. Plus as I said, the main cut is on something devolved to Scotland, which will get more as a result of the extra spending in England.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tories latest.

[Killer Whale]

She's the lost leader from 2015, isn't she?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Her campaign in 2015 was lost, but she's formidable.

Shadow Home Secretary was a shit job, basically just appearing on telly looking miserable for 5 years, because the damage of eg Police cuts took time to become evident. The Tories later recognized that the cuts were a mistake themselves. I suppose the same was true of Shadow Health, but Burnham did much better with that job than Cooper did with hers.

[Malcolm Armsteen]

She's the lost leader from 2015, isn't she?

I voted for her, and would again.