Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Might as well get this topic started as there is already a lot of chatter. It sounds like Labour might be considering a date in late July.

The constituency is estimated to have voted 59.6% Leave back in 2016.

LabourList have already shared a summary of the likely runners & riders:
https://labourlist.org/2021/05/batley-a ... nd-riders/

(Incidentally, thank goodness LabourList have turned off the comments sections on their articles. They made Mailwatch circa 2018 - Mikeyx2, Winegums, Kobes etc - look like a countryside picnic by comparison)

See also https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57090767

Could the Batley Grammar "protests" be a factor? It isn't very good that local kids, having lost loads of schooling already were kept out school further by those clowns. Could the Tories' anti-protest measures dovetail nicely with the local anger about them?

Boiler wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:26 pm See also https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57090767

Kim Leadbeater may have done Labour a huge favour here, especially if the reports were true that Paula Sherriff - another GE2019 casualty - was already establishing herself as an early frontrunner.

I'm not necessarily opposed to former MP's having another go in a different seat, but it still feels too soon after the GE2019 disaster and Hartlepool's rejection of Paul Williams.

Cue the complaints about 'politicising' a political assassination.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 11:08 pm

Boiler wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 10:26 pm See also https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57090767

Kim Leadbeater may have done Labour a huge favour here, especially if the reports were true that Paula Sherriff - another GE2019 casualty - was already establishing herself as an early frontrunner.

I'm not necessarily opposed to former MP's having another go in a different seat, but it still feels too soon after the GE2019 disaster and Hartlepool's rejection of Paul Williams.

Paula Sheriff's electoral performance seems to have been better than you might expect for the area, unless there are particularly helpful demographic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewsbury_ ... _the_2010s

Last election she didn't fight (2010), Labour lost by 2.8%. The margin was 2.7% in 2019, with excellent performance in 2015 and 2017. I think she's probably built a reasonable "doesn't take any shit" profile in the area (the two seats are in the same borough).

I dunno.

Oh joy.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 10:02 pm Oh joy.

The NIPpers seem to be taken as seriously as they deserve there.

Thelma Walker must be regretting to rocking up to Hartlepool (without the party being registered properly).

She's much more local to Batley and Spen. She would have got more than 0.84%.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 11:12 pm Thelma Walker must be regretting to rocking up to Hartlepool (without the party being registered properly).

She's much more local to Batley and Spen. She would have got more than 0.84%.

Well she certainly has my sympathy.

No, wait...

It really depends on that independent to me, I think if he runs then whoever runs for Labour may win.

The Brexit Party vote isn’t enough here.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 4:04 pm Paula Sheriff's electoral performance seems to have been better than you might expect for the area, unless there are particularly helpful demographic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewsbury_ ... _the_2010s

Last election she didn't fight (2010), Labour lost by 2.8%. The margin was 2.7% in 2019, with excellent performance in 2015 and 2017. I think she's probably built a reasonable "doesn't take any shit" profile in the area (the two seats are in the same borough).

I dunno.

From what I remember from an article about this, choice of candidate rarely affects the results. A tell like it is backbench ‘character’ might be worth about two points at the most.

My earliest political memory was about a hopeless Labour opposition nearly losing a rock solid Red Wall seat to Roy Jenkins in a by-election. Lesson being that anyone is in with a chance of beating Labour on its doorstep when the party is run by scruffy lefty protesters.

We're going to need that two points.

I didn't know Jenkins lost a by-election before he won Hillhead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Warr ... y-election

Jenkins seems to have got far more off the Tories than Labour.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 8:43 pm We're going to need that two points.

I didn't know Jenkins lost a by-election before he won Hillhead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Warr ... y-election

Jenkins seems to have got far more off the Tories than Labour.

I had an interesting few minutes nerding out on that article earlier as well. The various by-elections from that era seem like they were beamed in from another planet when compared to now.

Bonus points if you can name who it was that unseated Jenkins in Hillhead at GE1987.........

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 8:43 pm We're going to need that two points.

I didn't know Jenkins lost a by-election before he won Hillhead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Warr ... y-election

Jenkins seems to have got far more off the Tories than Labour.

I read about the Warrington by-election in Sandbrook's book Who Dares Wins in his chapters on the SDP.

Just looked. Thought it was Galloway.

Funny how the Tories declined so much in Hillhead from holding it in 1979.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 11:14 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 8:43 pm We're going to need that two points.

I didn't know Jenkins lost a by-election before he won Hillhead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Warr ... y-election

Jenkins seems to have got far more off the Tories than Labour.

I read about the Warrington by-election in Sandbrook's book Who Dares Wins in his chapters on the SDP.

Haven't read that. Alwyn Turner's books on the 70s, 80s and 90s are excellent, if you haven't read those.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 11:20 pm

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 11:14 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 8:43 pm We're going to need that two points.

I didn't know Jenkins lost a by-election before he won Hillhead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Warr ... y-election

Jenkins seems to have got far more off the Tories than Labour.

I read about the Warrington by-election in Sandbrook's book Who Dares Wins in his chapters on the SDP.

Haven't read that. Alwyn Turner's books on the 70s, 80s and 90s are excellent, if you haven't read those.

You should despite his columns in the Mail he's a lot more nuanced than those columns suggest and he's very good on the social side of things.

If labour lose this by election should Starmer go? Last year it was won by a margin of 3500 so not huge. Tories also consistently 10pt ahead in polling. It's not looking good.

kettle wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 7:30 am If labour lose this by election should Starmer go? Last year it was won by a margin of 3500 so not huge. Tories also consistently 10pt ahead in polling. It's not looking good.

Makes sense if you think Starmer is the problem. Who should be leader to prevent the Tories hoovering up the UKIP vote; Paul Nuttal?