Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Any thoughts/predictions for this upcoming by-election?

Both Labour and the Tories choice of candidates have caused minor kerfuffles in recent weeks, with Labour choosing the former Stockton South MP Paul Williams - an ardent Remainer being asked to run in a constituency that voted 70% Leave. The Tories, meanwhile, went with Jill Mortimer, a Hambleton District Cllr who stood unsuccessfully (vs Burgon) in Leeds East at GE2019 - local Tories were unhappy that an uppity "outsider" bagged the gig and even declined the opportunity to endorse their own candidate.

As in keeping with much of GE2019, the result at the last election was something of a shit sandwich for Labour, with Mike Hill only holding the seat due to the Brexit Party putting up Richard Tice and thereby splitting the anti-Labour vote evenly in two (Socialist Labour, seemingly not content with lifelong socialist Jeremy Corbyn being Labour leader at the time, came last with 1.2%).

I'm rather glumly resigned to this upcoming Thursday producing a pretty poor set of results for Labour, albeit for circumstances largely out of their control. I predict a Tory win, and a majority of around 5,000 or so.

If Labour lose this the Corbynites will use this as the perfect excuse to try and get rid of Starmer.

Comfortable Tory, win, I think. They're putting a lot of effort into positive economic messaging for the North East, and it dovetails with Brexit, as the vaccine does.

And the announced freeport, of course.

The monkey-hangers will fall for it, I'm afraid.

The Corbynites will attempt a putsch. It will fail.

There will be a Night of the Long Knives, and Ernst 'Dick' Bergön will be shot 'resisting arrest by talking bollocks'. There may be repercussions for Jez von Schleichervich.

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 6:06 pm The monkey-hangers will fall for it, I'm afraid.

The Corbynites will attempt a putsch. It will fail.

There will be a Night of the Long Knives, and Ernst 'Dick' Bergön will be shot 'resisting arrest by talking bollocks'. There may be repercussions for Jez von Schleichervich.

If the fallout includes Burgon, RLB etc having their arses handed back to them again during another leadership election, then perhaps losing Hartlepool wouldn’t be such a bad thing after all

If Labour lose this the Corbynites will use this as the perfect excuse to try and get rid of Starmer.

Would that make it 80 plays 1?

Dorries speaks to an electorate that is just as dim as she is.

Hartlepool would've been lost in 2019 if it hadn't been for Tice splitting the right wing vote. I see no way that Labour can win it back until the Hangers are prepared to admit that they've been played.

Oboogie wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 10:30 am Hartlepool would've been lost in 2019 if it hadn't been for Tice splitting the right wing vote. I see no way that Labour can win it back until the Hangers are prepared to admit that they've been played.

True, although on the other hand Labour managed a very strong result there as recently as GE2017 when they exceeded 20,000 votes in the constituency for the first time in zonks.

A poll this morning has the Tories with a 17% lead, however. At least Len will be happy on Friday morning.

Mike Gapes, on Twitter, has coined the phrase 'Long Corbyn' to explain poor Labour poll numbers; in other news Hartlepool voter says he would vote Labour if Blair came back. Labour nationally within a few points of the Tories at a time that, it would seem, couldn't be better for the government over Covid. But the Jones/Sarkar/Bastani Axis of Fuckwittery is attacking Starmer. A year in after their boy made Labour unelectable - possibly for a generation.

We'll lose Hartlepool, of course. That's a combination of the above, plus the fact that Corbyn was comprehensively outplayed by the Tories on Brexit (and calling the 2019 GE). And that Hartlepool factor - the demographic, especially the low education numbers. (And the highest truancy rate in the UK).

Long Corbyn sums it up perfectly. It will take years to cleanse his legacy.

What future is there for these foul outposts of intergenerational racism and bigotry? If these polling numbers are made flesh, it will be further proof that they will rush to the ballot box to vote against their own interests, just so long as the darkies are kept out.

In not entirely unrelated news, it's going to interesting when the first Indian plumbers and sparks show up at their door in return for the UK being able to cart apples to a country which annually produces over a billion metric tonnes of its own fruit.

Don't forget about the quinces! According to Liz Truss this morning, the easy export of quinces is going to be a big deal.

I wonder if she just glances over her briefing documents and whatever odd words stick in her mind, she repeats. Would explain the quinces and pork markets, plus her permanent air of wanting a sticker because she's remembered the order of Henry VIII's wives.

A cultish faith in doubling down on Brexit has been put forward for Labour’s poor figures in Hartlepool. Is Starmer being punished by not mentioning how wonderful it is? I can well believe it. Well tough but Labour has to concentrate on winning Nuneaton and Basildon with a younger more aspirant demographic. It can’t get bogged down in Brexit culture wars that’s just a load mumbo-jumbo to most non-pensioners. LBJ correctly predicted he’d lost the Democrats the South for two generations after passing the Civil Rights Act and perhaps Labour will have to eat shit in its Red Wall seats for a few years to come. I don’t even want a Labour majority in 2024 but the largest party forced to introduce PR as the price for power.

Youngian wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 4:48 pm A cultish faith in doubling down on Brexit has been put forward for Labour’s poor figures in Hartlepool. Is Starmer being punished by not mentioning how wonderful it is? I can well believe it. Well tough but Labour has to concentrate on winning Nuneaton and Basildon with a younger more aspirant demographic. It can’t get bogged down in Brexit culture wars that’s just a load mumbo-jumbo to most non-pensioners. LBJ correctly predicted he’d lost the Democrats the South for two generations after passing the Civil Rights Act and perhaps Labour will have to eat shit in its Red Wall seats for a few years to come. I don’t even want a Labour majority in 2024 but the largest party forced to introduce PR as the price for power.

Although I’d prefer a Labour majority in 2024, a Labour-led coalition with the Lib Dems holding the balance of power would be an interesting scenario. Can’t see it happening, though.

I suspect the 2 party/FPTP system is too ingrained in the collective psyche to be replaced any time soon. When we've had narrow or no overall majority results recently, there's been an attitude of "just get on with it", the Brenda from Bristol reaction. I guess that is one of the things in the Tories favour, that sentiment that as long as someone's running things, good enough.

I and you know all the arguments in favour of PR, but I feel like Adlai Stevenson at times.

I think it's premature to say this pattern is set for the longer term, but hard to deny that the result in 2019 wasn't even more dire than it looked at the time.