Mailwatch(ed) Forum

The Lib Dems are seemingly pretty bullish about their chances in the upcoming Chesham & Amersham by-election, mostly based around the fact that Remain managed 55 per cent within the wider Chiltern district at the 2016 referendum.

A classic case of misguided Lib Dem optimism, methinks. Perhaps the late Cheryl Gillan had a substantial personal vote in the constituency, but nonetheless the Tories secured a thumping 16,000+ majority there during GE2019, with the Lib Dems a very distant second with just over 26 per cent.

Incidentally, the result there in GE2019 grimly highlights the abject failure of the assorted Remain parties to work together for a common cause, meaning the 45 per cent non-Tory vote got carved up between three different parties.

Covid has meant a sidelining of opposition parties (especially the minor ones) in England, but in all honesty I don't know what the fuck the LDs are campaigning on any more. They only one I see on That Twitter is Layla Moran who seems to be chasing the Corbyn vote by going after worthy overseas things.

I don't think the Lib Dems will win the by-election, but I can see why they talk it up. By-elections were their route to relevance in the nineties-noughties. Tory MPs don't croak at the rate they used to, but it's easier to chuck the kitchen sink at a by-election that to win seats v the Tories in general elections. See what happened in 2005, when they talked up "decapitating" a load of prominent Tories.

I think realistically this is "establish a good second" then send out the bar charts in 2024.

I suspect that the purge of older centrist Tories and their replacement by the Johnson Youth was in part to avoid the leakage of seats by death that plagued John Major.

Did anyone else just see their party political broadcast?

It was certainly... a thing that happened:

Excited to see Lisa his LD councillor. That film didn’t even look like it was made in this century.

The Lib Dems don't seem to be releasing a lot of internal polls but here's one.

You'd think there were a few tactical unionists available among those Lab/Con voters. The Lib Dems held the Westminster seat.

Unfortunately for them, the Lib Dems have gone backwards nationally since 2019....

SNP hold?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:44 pm Unfortunately for them, the Lib Dems have gone backwards nationally since 2019....

SNP hold?

I reckon the Lib Dems might just sneak that one, but I suspect they won't have much else to shout about next week.

Youngian wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:58 pm Excited to see Lisa his LD councillor. That film didn’t even look like it was made in this century.

Well I'm confused, the body language follows the "I'm Free" of Mister Humphries, but the Freudian "squirting hose" hints that we have a "sneaky hetrosexual+".

+ A comedy term, coined when people noticed Gok Wan's easy access to women's breasts, M'Lud.

Interesting chart here. We had a discussion on another board once about whether the Lib Dems were shysters at a national level, with nicer people locally , or the other way round. We can take our pick on that, but I think it's clear that there was a dark side in their heyday. In Cornwall, I think they positioned themselves relatively Eurosceptically, bad Tories selling out fishermen etc. And I suppose that not all the voters you pick up in by-elections and local elections are going to be principled liberals.

Localism from the new Lib Dem group leader in Ealing. I've a feeling this might not be unique from them in London.

Potholes for the new generation.

Wheelie bins! No wheelie bins!

"They had X in Cirencester! Cirencester is nice!"

I have to say, I'm absolutely staggered by the by-election result last night. I had long assumed the outcome a forgone conclusion, to the extent I didn't bother starting a thread on it and even nearly didn't bother checking the result this morning.

The result itself is astonishing, but the actual numbers - 21,517 vs 13,489, which represents a 25% swing to the Lib Dems - is the real jaw-dropper.

Any thoughts on what drove this? HS2 nimbyism, or are folk starting (belatedly) to push back against the never-ending flow of effluence emitting forth from this wretched government?

It seems Tory tin ears on HS2 have cost them dear in Chesham and Amersham.
Ed Davey was on BBC news this morning talking up the collapse of the "blue wall", but that doesn't match what the boots on the ground are saying.

How many constituencies does HS2 pass through?

Not all that many that are likely to hold by elections, I'd have thought. HS1 didn't have much effect on local politics along the route.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:34 am I have to say, I'm absolutely staggered by the by-election result last night. I had long assumed the outcome a forgone conclusion, to the extent I didn't bother starting a thread on it and even nearly didn't bother checking the result this morning.

The result itself is astonishing, but the actual numbers - 21,517 vs 13,489, which represents a 25% swing to the Lib Dems - is the real jaw-dropper.

Any thoughts on what drove this? HS2 nimbyism, or are folk starting (belatedly) to push back against the never-ending flow of effluence emitting forth from this wretched government?

I got this wrong too.

HS2 will have been a big factor. May also have been "local issues"- ie don't build more houses. The Government to their credit want to do that.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:04 am

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:34 am I have to say, I'm absolutely staggered by the by-election result last night. I had long assumed the outcome a forgone conclusion, to the extent I didn't bother starting a thread on it and even nearly didn't bother checking the result this morning.

The result itself is astonishing, but the actual numbers - 21,517 vs 13,489, which represents a 25% swing to the Lib Dems - is the real jaw-dropper.

Any thoughts on what drove this? HS2 nimbyism, or are folk starting (belatedly) to push back against the never-ending flow of effluence emitting forth from this wretched government?

I got this wrong too.

HS2 will have been a big factor. May also have been "local issues"- ie don't build more houses. The Government to their credit want to do that.

Think it was a mixture . Oldies was HS2, Nimbyism, scepticism around Level Up Agenda and Bozza as Charlatan - but there are lots of younger high earning professionals who live in the area for whom Brexit and Culture Wars has been the final straw. A rare but perfect storm for the Conservatives.