Mailwatch(ed) Forum

I'm going with a win for Labour and a 99-seat majority.

Anyone else fancy putting their money where their mouth is?

Labour majority of triple figures. Tories below 150.

Hoping people tactically vote *hard*.

I'd be happy if Labour break the 400 seat mark but still have this nagging feeling that i'm going to be disappointed.

A majority of 85, the Mail saying it proves Starmer has no mandate and damianfrombrighton will call it a moral defeat.

I think Labour will end up with a majority of between 100 and 120. I can see the Conservatives being reduced to around 180, with the Liberal Democrats picking up around 50 seats. I had hoped they would become the second largest party but if they get back to 1997-2010 levels i will be happy.

A win for Labour but a lower majority than predicted due to low turnout and Reformers returning to the Tory fold.

I’m going hubristic. It’s going to be a FUCKING LANDSLIDE !!!

I don't make predictions and I never will.

C'mon. Numbers, numbers!

I sense a supermajority.

There'll be a lot of last-minute better the devil you know mind-changing but if it's a smaller majority than expected, remember that three years ago even a coalition was looking unlikely.

That somehow the great brain that powers the fourth estate wakes up on Friday and say 'huh, maybe people actually don't all love the Tories and huh, maybe the logic of history doesn't need to trend right all the fucking time cos we say so... huh....'.

Tory total wipe-out in Wales. I'll be disappointed with anything less at this point.

kreuzberger wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:12 pm C'mon. Numbers, numbers!

Alright then. Labour will win about 450 seats. Labour’s majority around 130.

I could well see the Telegraph, Mail and Express trying to make out that a majority of 130 is some kind of disaster for Labour because they really should have had a majority of 200 plus.

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:41 am Tory total wipe-out in Wales. I'll be disappointed with anything less at this point.

Yougov have Llanelli neck and neck between Labour and Plaid. Is that likely?

RedSparrows wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:43 pm That somehow the great brain that powers the fourth estate wakes up on Friday and say 'huh, maybe people actually don't all love the Tories and huh, maybe the logic of history doesn't need to trend right all the fucking time cos we say so... huh....'.

It'll be "unite the right and win". When things looked bleak for Cameron, Toby Young hilariously suggested that UKIP do a deal with the Tories whereby the Tories had a free run in all their southern seats, and UKIP was allowed to... come second in lots of Labour seats in the north. Reform and their supporters are likely to be a bit more assertive than that.

JLL was one of those more favourable to the Tories before. It doesn't put the Lib Dems very high, but still awful for the Tories. I like the fact they have Lee Anderson losing though.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:00 pm

Killer Whale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:41 am Tory total wipe-out in Wales. I'll be disappointed with anything less at this point.

Yougov have Llanelli neck and neck between Labour and Plaid. Is that likely?

There's nothing on the grapevine about that. There's big hope coming out of Ynys Môn, however.

I've done a bit of naive maths. Assuming a 100% turnout (!) and no threshold the latest figures converted to PR come out like this:
(First figure is current prediction under FPTP, second figure is my crude PR figure)
So you can see why Starmer hasn't shown any great enthusiasm.