Mailwatch(ed) Forum

These are odds are so bad for the Tories, they look like value to me.
Actually, they probably aren't value at all.

This is very funny. Nice of the impartial Sun to delete their tweet where they relayed the briefing with the (wrong) joke in it.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:12 pm These are odds are so bad for the Tories, they look like value to me.
Actually, they probably aren't value at all.

The best Tory odds are now 5, 18 and 7 respectively, so there's not much value money gone on them.

So they've come in a bit in Uxbridge? 12 did a look too generous.

18-1 in Somerton and Frome is dreadful value though.

Latest odds in Selby are appealing, I shoved two pound on both, if I come up empty handed I’ll blame twitter.

Half of my head says Labour, the other none rational side says Tory.

Sadly, you'll never get better value than the 10/11 Tory majority government available at the start of the 2019 campaign.

Brexit 7/2 after Boro had gone leave and Newcastle had marginally voted Remain.

At that point you could see what was happening, so I bunked £70 on.

I’d never bet more than a fiver on anything before that but it seemed obviously,hence the £2 on these two, the Tories sound and look like they’ve given up, the voxpops are saying time for a change but I do think there is value especially in Selby with that majority and we still don’t know how ULEZ plays out.

My friend who has been with the Labour candidate in Selby has suggested it looks quite positive, so I guess we will see. I was told to think those polls will be rather close to the outcome. However rail strike on Thursday.

Sky are reporting the Tories are expecting to lose all 3 seats, so I assume their private polling has been an absolute bin fire.

Lovely.

There have been reports of queues outside polling stations in Somerton & Frome. And they weren't queueing up to vote Tory !The LibDems are so confident they've already declared victory. I think we're looking at wholesale Tory slaughter here

Labour seem worried about ULEZ in Uxbridge. Can’t believe many cars there need to pay it.

Selby sounds pretty good though. And Somerton and Frome sounds of sight.

Recount in Uxbridge. Think Labour have lost.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Fri Jul 21, 2023 2:14 am Recount in Uxbridge. Think Labour have lost.

Oh great.

Tories held Uxbridge by just under 500 votes.

Labour 13,470
Conservative 13,965

Lib Dems have gained Somerton and Frome.

The Weeping Angel wrote: ↑Fri Jul 21, 2023 3:01 am Lib Dems have gained Somerton and Frome.

Smashed it with a 29% swing
LD 21,187
Con 10,179

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Labour seem worried about ULEZ in Uxbridge. Can’t believe many cars there need to pay it.

Why not? If you fell for the diesel con, it'd have to be Euro 6 to be exempt which is typically less than six to eight years old.

Selby and Ainsty by election result:

Labour - 16,456
Conservatives - 12,295

Don't be sad.
Two out of three ain't bad.

The Uxbridge irony is if Labour had had the Green vote on what is a huge (small g) green policy, they’d have won.

We shouldn't be too despondent at not gaining Uxbridge. The Tories will have concentrated their efforts there because a) it would have been embarrassing to lose Alex's seat and b) they know they'll get Selby back at the next general election but Home Counties seats have a habit of staying lost.