Mailwatch(ed) Forum

I thought we had a topic for the weird goings in in the wild west of the island, but apparently not.

Anyway, brain-the-size-of-a-planet-Price took his eye of the ball when it came to internal party affairs, and has had to go. Big things were expected of him, but it's hard to say that he's delivered anything positive for the party, even if he has nudged Drakeford into comitting to a handful of progressive policies (for which Plaid will get little credit, of course).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65553413

Plaid's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts is a much more impress figures.
While Plaid linger at below 20 percent, the non-party indy movement Yes Cymru claims support for independence is running at over 30 percent.

Labour working with Plaid has been clever strategy, I think, though I wasn't sure at the time. I would guess that it'll draw some GE Plaid voters over to Labour.

Saville-Roberts is Westminster-based, so I think she'd struggle to lead them from there. I give Price credit for resigning over the report, lots wouldn't.

I'll put this on here instead of the SNP thread.

This would be, well, brave by the SNP. Get rid of Barnett and have a needs based formula and Wales is likely to get a much better deal as it's significantly poorer than Scotland.

We were talking about this only today. Our NHS has no money, and one of the main reasons is because we have an older and sicker population (partly due to incoming pensioners, partly due to the legacy of former heavy industry) than anywhere else in the UK. Without a needs-based Barnett, we're subsidising the rest of the union, particularly those parts of England that take our brightest and best, and send retirees in return.
But this is quite bold for the National, since by most measures (excluding oil, basically, albeit that's not to be sniffed at) Scotland gets the best deal by far of any part of the UK.

Say what you like about the SNP, but their rise to pre-eminence basically killed changes to Barnett. I can't believe that they wouldn't have been on the table at Westminster level otherwise. Cameron had to recommit to it in 2014, so even after the referendum, so was left to flap about "English laws" afterwards. That was certainly tactless but the SNP had won a big victory.

The SNP are pretty good at what they do, so I'd be surprised if anyone was very serious about reforming Barnett. It's all part of the "we're robbed blind" stuff they do. Labour in Wales don't seem to make as much about Barnett as they should (doubtless because that would embarrass Labour in Scotland). So I suppose it's over to Plaid to lead on it.

The Welsh economy, as you say, has massive disadvantages from demographics, but GDP growth over the years has been relatively good. Welsh Government over the years has performed well on development. One thing you notice living in Herefordshire is how much better Welsh roads are (though Herefordshire and Shropshire might be particularly dire)

Familiarity with Herefordshire is somewhat limited, but from my time working in Gloucestershire and Monmouthshire, I recall that the county library service was pretty much run on a shoestring - just 4 branches across the county (Hereford, Ross, Ledbury, Leominster). I also recall though that it's largely empty of people.

A reforming or outright abolition of the Barnett formula would likely go down like a lead balloon in Northern Ireland given that NI gets a disproportionately high amount of public spending per head compared even to Scotland. I'm not sure of the current figures, but they have been coming down slowly over the years - IIRC the figures at the end of the troubles were standing at 138% but about a decade ago was down to 127%.

Wales can feel justifiably peeved off under the current system, while I suspect that The National's motive is that it wants to see Scotland have the courage to take on public finances on its own initiative without Westminster being involved at any final level, even if it meant that at least in the short term public income for an independent Scottish state suffered a notable decrease.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 4:41 pm Labour in Wales don't seem to make as much about Barnett as they should (doubtless because that would embarrass Labour in Scotland). So I suppose it's over to Plaid to lead on it.

I've always assumed that was partly because Welsh Labour have always been aware that they haven't got a hope in hell of getting it onto the agenda of an incoming Labour government in Westminster. Pushing it would only demonstrate how peripheral we are.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 4:41 pm One thing you notice living in Herefordshire is how much better Welsh roads are (though Herefordshire and Shropshire might be particularly dire)

Yeah, but taking a road like the A44, for example, in Wales it's an important east-west corridor. In English eyes, by the time you get to Kington, it's the end of a road to nowhere and worthy of commensurate investment.

Apart from the M50, roads are dire in the opposite direction too. I was talking to ambulance driver who said that the road from Hereford to Worcester is awful. Worcester is a decent sized place. A neighbour of ours said his Dad used to be a top surveyor in Shropshire (or Salop as it would have been for some of the time) and he said there's a general issue with rural areas and the way roads are funded. But that could be fixed with political will- which is absent, and not exactly helped by all the seats in these counties being safe Tory (unless it's a by-election caused by Owen Paterson resigning in disgrace).

If ever you're nearby and fancy a "shit English roads" tour, I recommend Ross-Ledbury, then Ledbury on to Bromyward. Probably an onward road from Bromyard you could take as well, but we don't go there much.

Isn't first-past-the-post great?



The Independent in Carmarthen, my new constituency, is the incumbent MP, Jonathon Edwards, ex-Plaid, who got chucked out of the party for a violent attack on his wife. Maybe he'll see this and conclude that he doesn't need the humiliation.

Would be surprised by that Ynys Mon margin. Hard to see the Tories only going down by 10 from their very high score last time. Labour might lose a few to Plaid, but I'd not expect them to go down.

Jonathan Edwards has a surprisingy large personal vote on that evidence.

I think Labour win the latter.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:07 pm Jonathan Edwards has a surprisingy large personal vote on that evidence.

He's really upped his social media output, pictures of him out meeting constituents, pictures of him enjoying quality family times with his kids, (anonymised) screenshots of supportive messages, and so on. Putting aside the un-put-assidable assault on his wife, he's been a good and popular MP. It all points to an intention to stand again.

He might get a few Tory-leaning farmers and one or two 'old' Labour types, but there's no question that the vast majority of his vote will be robbed from Plaid.

Remember that "state crowding out enterprise" Cameron bollocks about Wales? Here it is again, from Simon Jenkins. With some added "you aint from round here" bollocks. "Lavish" though.

As for the Welsh, their personal benefit is worth a lavish £4,412 a head, the institute found. This level of reliance has atrophied Welsh enterprise, fostered government hostility to (mostly English) outsiders and invited interference from London.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ship-union

Devolution (not just to nations, but to local councils/regions) is one of Jenkins' frequent topics. I'm not sure people are crying out for more of it particularly, even it might be a good idea. Certainly nobody needs the Houchen variety on current evidence. We'd get more proper accountability if a Westminster "Minister for Teeesside" were solely in charge.

I don't know how much longer Gething can survive, now the Westminster election is behind us.

Sacked junior minister Hannah Blythyn has maintained her innocence of leaking information to the press and told Senedd politicians of how the last few weeks have affected her mental health.

Ms Blythyn was dismissed by the First Minister shortly after he appointed his Cabinet.

He accused her of handing screen grabs to Nation.Cymru that revealed he had deleted messages in a ministerial group chat during the height of the pandemic.

https://nation.cymru/news/sacked-minist ... to-senedd/

Jeremy Miles was my AM, and I thought he was good. He came second to Gething. Hope he takes over soon.

Well, that Ynys Mon poll was pretty good, wasn't it?

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:25 pm Jeremy Miles was my AM, and I thought he was good. He came second to Gething. Hope he takes over soon.

Yeah I half expected someone to suggest to Gethin to move aside, we know Starmer will have his eye on this.

Scotland should go well for him mind.

It's Gething (with two gs), not Gethin, by the way.