Mailwatch(ed) Forum

This will in all likelihood turn out to be a very straightforward by-election from a Labour perspective, but I thought the contest may as well have its own thread anyway.

The by-election has been triggered by the early retirement of the incumbent MP Rosie Cooper, who has accepted a new role as Chair of Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust. The precise date of the by-election is yet to be confirmed.

Cooper leaves behind a solid Labour majority of 8,336 (52.1%) as per GE2019. The seat has been Labour since 1992, when it was won by Colin Pickthall from the Tories.

The constituency is estimated to have voted 55% Leave back in 2016.

One of the presumed Labour front runners for the selection shortlist has been omitted due to, quelle surprise, a dodgy history of social media activity.

Not sure why these people think they can write whatever they want and then run for high office.

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:52 pm Not sure why these people think they can write whatever they want and then run for high office.

They aren't very bright?

mattomac wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:52 pm Not sure why these people think they can write whatever they want and then run for high office.

It may not be too bad, in fairness- ie the sort of thing that in a general election could be apologised for, and everybody move on, if they even notice it at all. The nation's media won't generally show up in a safe seat.

A by-election though is much more focussed on the candidate. Loads of journalists will show interest, especially in a Labour heartland seat. "Skelmersdale is a million miles from blah blah Islington blah..."

I wouldn’t want to say anything further but yeah you are right. However it wouldn’t be the first time

Ashley Dalton has been selected as the Labour candidate for the by-election. Currently lives in Preston and works in the voluntary sector. Prior to that, she worked for Southend Council for seventeen years and fought the 2017 & 2019 elections as the Labour candidate in Rochford & Southend East (Teddy Taylor's old seat).

Ah Teddy Taylor now there's a blast from the past.

A by-election though is much more focussed on the candidate. Loads of journalists will show interest, especially in a Labour heartland seat. "Skelmersdale is a million miles from blah blah Islington blah..."

From what I read its even a million miles from Liverpool if you don’t drive.

Interestingly in the last decade there had been a push for a station to terminate in Skem but the government debunked it in July 2022, I think Labour to push for it as a local idea would easily be a vote winner, also something that may be missed by journalists but will probably cause anger.

It will have some of the Liverpool and Manchester commuter belt but also some of the isolated types (yet the station being cancelled won’t endear the Conservatives to many there).

The county council is Conservative and had purchased land for 2 million for the station.

Of course the old line took went through Ormskirk which now has the odd interchange of connection with Preston, my dad is better on this.

The whole area would probably benefit from that especially as Edge Hill is a growing University in the area. Anyhow glad they chose someone from Lancashire even if she has moved away and come back.

Strangely Ormskirk always gave vibes of Tory off but it is held by Labour, had a quick look at the 2021 elections for that council from my local knowledge it seems Labour held all the big settlements (bar Burscough) and with decent majorities, I assume West Lancs (East/West) fall under this seat.

That was 2021 though, if run this year I’d have a feeling it would be slightly better for Labour and now I guess even better.

Strangely growing up it is a seat I wasn’t aware was Labour, but to be honest I had left Southport for University a year before I joined the Labour Party and my parents moved away while I was there.

Still no date confirmed for this by-election, which seems surprising. Perhaps the leadership knew there was trouble brewing in Chester and they prefer to have two NW by-elections on the same date?

Possibly, they would have known about the Chester situation, also maybe they waited on Truss it has been apparent for some weeks this government wouldn’t last.

No point setting a by election when a GE is around the corner, and it may yet happen, I expect a week or so we will see, also the incumbent is leaving on her own terms so probably no rush for her to fully resign her seat.

I think a General Election is unlikely. And anyway, what's the problem with a by-election being overtaken by events?

As you say, she's going in her own time. Might be something particular she wants to finish first, or could be some delay with the new employer.

The Tories have made their selection to contest this by-election - Michael Prendergast, who is currently leader of the Conservatives at Sefton Council for Dukes ward in Southport. 38yo, works as a solicitor.

His Twitter page

Might be good to change the headline of this as Chester now has a date, 1st of December.

mattomac wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 4:03 pm Might be good to change the headline of this as Chester now has a date, 1st of December.

I will do if both by-elections end up taking place on December 1st (yet to be confirmed). If not, we may as well start another thread for Chester.

It sounds as if this by-election might not be happening for a while now. Apparently Rosie Cooper is holding off from formally standing down as an MP because she feels she should be offered a peerage.

Not surprisingly, this seems to have pissed off the Labour leadership, who cancelled their NW conference and had already green-lit a candidate (Ashley Dalton) to fight the by-election.

Oh god what is her fucking problem?

Under two weeks away now. Ashley Dalton is the Labour candidate. Don't know what the deadline for candidate is, but so far surprisingly small field.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_West ... y-election

Maybe the cranks are a bit skint after Christmas.

You’d think TUSC would find someone.

Anyhow be surprised if it doesn’t align with polling at that time, this also had a major transport project cancelled so could be even better for Labour.