Mailwatch(ed) Forum

A date for this by-election is still to be confirmed, but Labour have already announced their candidate: Paulette Hamilton, the city council's cabinet member for Health and Social Care. Her defeated rival was Ashley Bertie, the 30-year-old former deputy police and crime commissioner for the West Midlands.

If elected, she will become the city's first ever Black MP.

A Tory candidate is yet to be announced, though Birmingham City Council Tory Group leader Coun Robert Alden may well be granted another chance after cutting Jack Dromey's majority to just 3,601 in 2019.

The constituency is estimated to have voted 63% Leave back in 2016, making it the most Brexit-leaning Birmingham constituency.

Given the current electoral landscape nationally, I”d expect us to hold Erdington reasonably easily. I know both Paulette and Ashley reasonably well, and while I’m certain that Paulette will be a worthy successor to Jack, I’m sorry that Ash did not get his chance.

Yeah about 12 months ago I would be concerned but I can't see this being tight.

Going on the assumption that any LAB seat which didn't switch Tory at GE2019 is unlikely to do so now, then yes Labour should be reasonably safe this time. The majority is fairly small, although Dromey did in fact still manage to capture more than 50% of the vote in 2019. I don't expect the big Leave vote to be such an issue any longer.

The only thing I can see being problematical is if the by-election takes place after Johnson has been ditched and the new PM results in a bounce in support for the Tories.

Abers would know better than I, but Rob Arden seems very much a Green Tory. How that will play with the leavers I know not.

Arrowhead wrote:A date for this by-election is still to be confirmed, but Labour have already announced their candidate: Paulette Hamilton, the city council's cabinet member for Health and Social Care. Her defeated rival was Ashley Bertie, the 30-year-old former deputy police and crime commissioner for the West Midlands.

If elected, she will become the city's first ever Black MP.

A Tory candidate is yet to be announced, though Birmingham City Council Tory Group leader Coun Robert Alden may well be granted another chance after cutting Jack Dromey's majority to just 3,601 in 2019.

The constituency is estimated to have voted 63% Leave back in 2016, making it the most Brexit-leaning Birmingham constituency.

I don't think that Brexit will have any particular impact on this election. Even in 2019 the Labour vote easily beat the Tories and Brexit Party combined. It's a low turnout seat but I'll have a fiver on a 5,000 majority.

The majority hasn’t had the wild swing of votes seen elsewhere which I noted.

I’d missed the announcement, but the date for this by-election has been confirmed as Thursday 3rd March.

As expected, Robert Alden will be the Tory candidate.

Dave Nellist is rolling out the big guns. Straight talking politics from Chris, who has carefully digested Labour policies before his considered opinion that they're the same as the Tories'.

Oh great

Expectation management?

Hopefully one thing I do know is there's apathy and getting people to turn out is difficult throw in crap weather. Unlike Hartlepool there hasn't been a lot of discourse about how we're going to lose which is good news.

Good news Labour hold with a majority of over 3,266 and with a 4.5% swing to Labour.

The LabourList sources are probably the likes of Richard Burgon anyhow

Pretty much correlates with the polling that gives Labour 295 seats and the Tories 253

“This is just the beginning,” claimed Comrade Dave after receiving 360 votes and losing his deposit. Having these deep reserves of optimism is either admirable or very stupid.

Funnily enough, in the news roundup at six this morning on the radio it mentioned that the LDs came sixth behind TUSC and the Greens.

How bad was the weather there yesterday anyway? It sounds like it was up there with the previous winter storms but surely not?

LDs had a paper candidate. You’ll see by-elections with similar results for Labour to give a LD or occasional Green a free run.

TUSC managed a wonderful 2%

Malcolm Armsteen wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:28 am TUSC managed a wonderful 2%

Did they win the argument?