Mailwatch(ed) Forum

Let's have a thread on these.

Bit of a poll for the government this week, But doesn't show up in by-elections. These are pretty good for them, with swings to them. In one case a very eye catching one-



This is in Leicester East, where the current Labour MP is on trial for harassment.

On the plus side, Labour's winning key marginals.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:58 am This is in Leicester East, where the current Labour MP is on trial for harassment.

That's Claudia Webbe, isn't it?

Perhaps my mind is playing tricks, but wasn't there somebody on Old Mailwatch who mentioned they'd had first-hand experience of dealing with Webbe at a local level in the past, and was staggered she had managed to bag a gig as an MP?

I haven't dealt with her at CLP level, but my experiences of her as a national conference Chair were underwhelming to say the least.

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:55 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:58 am This is in Leicester East, where the current Labour MP is on trial for harassment.

That's Claudia Webbe, isn't it?

Perhaps my mind is playing tricks, but wasn't there somebody on Old Mailwatch who mentioned they'd had first-hand experience of dealing with Webbe at a local level in the past, and was staggered she had managed to bag a gig as an MP?

I think it was Catkins, wasn't it? I miss Catkins.

Samanfur wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:17 pm I haven't dealt with her at CLP level, but my experiences of her as a national conference Chair were underwhelming to say the least.

It's funny because when I thought she looked like a heavyweight on paper, with her involvement in Operation Trident. It doesn't get much more serious than that, But what I've seen of her as an MP has been, as you say, underwhelming.

I have to say, the massive collapse in Tory support being picked up by pretty much all of the main pollsters recently isn't really being reflected at local levels so far. The Tories actually managed to pick up a council seat in Coventry a couple of weeks ago, and last week managed to add two more gains, one at the expense of Labour in Leicester.

Having said that, this result stood out from all the others last week - tactical voting very nearly having the desired result in a solidly Conservative ward:

That Leicester one was apparently a Hindu extremist Labour candidate in a heavily Muslim ward.

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:32 am That Leicester one was apparently a Hindu extremist Labour candidate in a heavily Muslim ward.

Ah that explains it then. Lord only knows why he was put up as a candidate.

I think that area of the city falls under Leicester East, which means the terminally useless Claudia Webbe is also their MP. Quite the double whammy by the local party.

We've got one coming up soon, in a relentlessly Tory part of town. I doubt that the results'll change that much, but I'm open to being surprised.

davidjay wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 12:32 am That Leicester one was apparently a Hindu extremist Labour candidate in a heavily Muslim ward.

A former Labour mayor of Lambeth was also an active BJP politician in India. Labour’s missed a bullet for not being scrutinised as to why these people are suitable Labour candidates.

Yeah it seems the recent gains have all had something dodgy about the candidates or situations.

Something to remember next time you hear of something barred from selection at national level it’s probably what the party is concentrating on most.

Strangely before the polls went crazy Labour were picking up gains alongside the LDs, I will always point out that both Birmingham and Wakefield matched the polling at the time.

Another mixed bag last night, with the Tories somehow picking up a seat from the Lib Dems in Fareham but generally doing pretty badly elsewhere.

This is the result which seems most reflective of the national polling right now, although 38% doesn't really equate to a meltdown in Tory support:

I’m wondering if it’s an effect of down ticket voting in the states.

Trump was more unpopular than his party, the Tory party brand is more popular than its current incumbents.

It’s probably why this talk of it’s death is premature even if it gets smashed by Labour it’s recovered before because governments do, I am of the increasing expectation however that this one is done, governments don’t last forever and this lot in the last 12 months have shown there isn’t much reason to keep them around.

Labour’s biggest worry this week was a by election where the Lib Dems surged and the Tory vote collapsed, it’s probably not something you will see a lot but might happen in the odd place.

Last night's Long Eaton (Derbyshire) council by-election result:

LAB: 51.1% (+15.0)
CON: 33.5% (-16.5)
LDEM: 11.1% (+5.0)
GRN: 4.4% (-3.5)

Votes cast: 2,160

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

Erewash constituency. winnable next time on that sort of swing.

The Tories are at least going forward in one place, But even this isn't that much to write home about. It's Kemi Badenoch's constituency in NW Essex, and the Tories lost the council there in 2019 to the Residents Association people, who still have a comfortable majority. Perhaps Sunak's hard line on building homes (against) is going to shore these sorts of places up.

It's Kemi Badenoch's constituency in NW Essex

Was housing the main issue causing NW Essex to desert the Tories? Opted instead for ‘local candidates.’

I don't know what this lot are like. But wouldn't be surprised if their issue was housing- too much of it.

Localists ought to know that this sort of thing is the Lib Dems' job.

Two conservatives who eloped together to Somerset from Plymouth are the by elections tonight.

I believe they are both in Johnny Mercer’s seat.

mattomac wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:47 pm Two conservatives who eloped together to Somerset from Plymouth are the by elections tonight.

I believe they are both in Johnny Mercer’s seat.

Moor View (Plymouth) council by-election result: LAB: 53.2% (+23.9) CON: 33.0% (-30.5) IND: 6.9% (+6.9) GRN: 3.3% (-1.1) LDEM: 2.9% (+0.6) TUSC: 0.7% (+0.2) Votes cast: 2,658 Labour GAIN from Conservative.

Plympton Chaddlewood (Plymouth) council by-election result: GRN: 44.9% (+1.6) CON: 29.2% (-18.4) IND: 12.5% (+12.5) LAB: 10.1% (+0.9) LDEM: 2.3% (+2.3) TUSC: 1.0% (+1.0) Votes cast: 1,455 Green GAIN from Conservative.