Mailwatch(ed) Forum

A few years ago this proposal worried Labour as their heartland seats were depopulating. Now its the Tories likely to lose out.

Parts of the North of England and the Midlands will lose parliamentary seats while areas in the South gain under proposals for a shake-up of England's electoral map in 2023.

The Boundary Commission for England says the aim is to make Parliament fairer by giving each MP a roughly similar number of voters.

Unlike previous reviews, the total number of seats in the House of Commons will stay at 650 but population changes mean England is set to have 543 MPs, Wales 32 and Scotland 57 - that is an extra 10 for England, with Wales losing eight and Scotland's count cut by two. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57384795

Parliament's been stripped of its vote on this by statutory instrument, so if it goes through, it's going through automatically.

So, are angry northern pensioners Johnson's mess of pottage? At this rate all he'll have is the "always voted Tory" demographic and the far right.

I wondered why it had gone oddly quiet on the accusations of gerrymandering. Would be particularly fitting if the instrument of undoing for the Tories was something they'd set up then made impossible to undo because they thought it'd be rigging it for themselves.

This projected seats forecast for the next GE, whilst fun to look at from a Labour perspective, looks highly dubious considering the Lib Dems somehow contrive to end up with just six MPs. As others have already pointed out, any GE where the Tory vote collapses to such an extent would likely result in many more Lib Dems being returned to parliament.

Also, presumably a Labour majority of 26 would mean the likes of Burgon, Long-Bailey etc. effectively holding the balance of power

As ever, elections are lost, not won...

Arrowhead wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:31 pm This projected seats forecast for the next GE, whilst fun to look at from a Labour perspective, looks highly dubious considering the Lib Dems somehow contrive to end up with just six MPs. As others have already pointed out, any GE where the Tory vote collapses to such an extent would likely result in many more Lib Dems being returned to parliament.

Also, presumably a Labour majority of 26 would mean the likes of Burgon, Long-Bailey etc. effectively holding the balance of power

Agree with you. Even if there were no tactical voting at all, the Lib Dems would win lots of seats just on the back of the Tory collapse.

And in Scotland, Tory collapse would likely benefit the SNP in most of their seats- so how do the SNP only end up with the same as before? If the Lib Dems get only 5 overall, I would think that means them winning only Orkney and Shetland, so that would be another couple of seats to the SNP. Can't see how Labour can get up to 9 seats, or whatever the balance is.

The Plaid Cymru score is nonsense too. Labour might get Arfon and Dinewr-Camarthen East on those numbers, but Ceredigion and Dwyfor Meirionnydd ought to be safe.