[mattomac]

If Trump loses it may turn out to be the fascist version of the Sheffield Rally.

As someone said on the 6th of Jan, they will be more prepared and there is a Democrat President who understands the rule of law.

[Youngian]

A thoughtful piece from top not mad Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. Hadn't thought of it like this but do you hate politics but love policy? Other than as drama (usually tragedy) I think I do.

I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.

I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.

My time as Governor taught me to love policy and ignore politics. I’m proud of the work I did to help clean up our air, create jobs, balance the budget, make the biggest infrastructure investment in state history, and take power from the politicians and give it back to the people when it comes to our redistricting process and our primaries in California.

That’s policy. It requires working with the other side, not insulting them to win your next election, and I know it isn’t sexy to most people, but I love it when I can help make people’s lives better with policies, like I still do through my institute at USC, where we fight for clean air and stripping the power from the politicians who rig the system against the people.

Let me be honest with you: I don’t like either party right now. My Republicans have forgotten the beauty of the free market, driven up deficits, and rejected election results. Democrats aren’t any better at dealing with deficits, and I worry about their local policies hurting our cities with increased crime.

It is probably not a surprise that I hate politics more than ever, which, if you are a normal person who isn’t addicted to this crap, you probably understand.

I want to tune out.

But I can’t. Because rejecting the results of an election is as un-American as it gets. To someone like me who talks to people all over the world and still knows America is the shining city on a hill, calling America is a trash can for the world is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious.

And I will always be an American before I am a Republican.

That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do. You don’t recognize our country. And you are right to be furious.

For decades, we’ve talked about the national debt. For decades, we’ve talked about comprehensive immigration reform that secures the border while fixing our broken immigration system. And Washington does nothing.

The problems just keep rolling, and we all keep getting angrier, because the only people that benefit from problems aren’t you, the people. The only people that benefit from this crap are the politicians who prefer having talking points to win elections to the public service that will make Americans’ lives better.

It is a just game to them. But it is life for my fellow Americans. We should be pissed!

But a candidate who won’t respect your vote unless it is for him, a candidate who will send his followers to storm the Capitol while he watches with a Diet Coke, a candidate who has shown no ability to work to pass any policy besides a tax cut that helped his donors and other rich people like me but helped no one else else, a candidate who thinks Americans who disagree with him are the bigger enemies than China, Russia, or North Korea - that won’t solve our problems.

It will just be four more years of bullshit with no results that makes us angrier and angrier, more divided, and more hateful.

We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that. He will divide, he will insult, he will find new ways to be more un-American than he already has been, and we, the people, will get nothing but more anger.

That’s enough reason for me to share my vote with all of you. I want to move forward as a country, and even though I have plenty of disagreements with their platform, I think the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.

Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us.

And even if you disagree with me, vote, because that’s what we do as Americans.

[Abernathy]

Still nervous over the outcome of this election. I’ll confess to at times wishing that someone would have another go at bumping Trump off and actually making a good job of it.

[mattomac]

Can’t really see how Harris wins this from this point on sadly.

Only positive I can see is it seems like her vote has vastly already voted in the states that are key.

The polls do look a bit of a mess and if they have overplayed like in 2022 midterms for the Republicans she probably does win, it would in my view align more with those who have already voted. I’m always wary of polling after a sizeable vote has taken place.

You effectively are post polling some if you consider the question, Maybe that’s why polling is getting worse.

Note the exit poll in the UK has been rather decent for the last few elections even when the result was quite volatile in the field.

I’m not doing my usual betting this year, in fact I might go to bed and see what it’s like in the morning, but I would place heavy on Harris the value is there I feel. I’m getting Labour 2017 vibes in the sense that the value is there and it’s a plausible outcome.

Some elections you can win big on, I would if to offer some hope is one you could.

[Youngian]

There's smart money predicting either way. I was bracing for a Trump win but not so sure now as there's plausible arguments for wild cards on both sides.
Harris's high polling in some rock soild red states is producing pundit head scratching. Four points behind Trump in Kansas for eg. Playing well with Latino voters while the only group Trump appears to have gained ground with is young men with low skills and educational attainment. Not much help if Beavis and Butthead* don't make it to the polling station.

* 90s cartoon spoof depicting dumbed down yoof of America.

[Crabcakes]

I reckon Harris will clear 300 electoral college votes. The republicans flooded the data sets with partisan polls to try and suppress the democrat vote, but it doesn’t add up - she’s ahead for virtually all demographics (and the numbers for women voting are huge - the Roe vs Wade decision really seems to have made a difference), it looks like she’s pulling around 20% of the Republican vote in some early voting data, and it’s starting to leak that republicans are very worried about their internal polling info. Betting is also starting to tighten, and quickly.

[Andy McDandy]

Saw one analysis putting the red state bounce for Harris down to women realising what's at stake and going hell no.

[Philip Marlow]

Since reading Naomi Klein’s Doppleganger (about the fact that people keep mistaking her for Naomi Wolf and wondering what the hell happened to her, for those who haven’t read it) I do occasionally find myself having a look at the Twitter timeline of ‘Other Naomi’ to see how things are in her world.

Apparently not well.

[Philip Marlow]

It would seem that Rudy can fail.*

*I know it’s a different spelling but come on, let me have my Clash reference.

[Andy McDandy]

New York has a decent sized Palestinian community. Adam Sandler made a film set in it*.

*"You Don't Mess with the Zohan", in case you were wondering. Based on true story of a Mossad agent who retired and became a hairdresser in said community.

[Youngian]

Since reading Naomi Klein’s Doppleganger (about the fact that people keep mistaking her for Naomi Wolf and wondering what the hell happened to her, for those who haven’t read it) I do occasionally find myself having a look at the Twitter timeline of ‘Other Naomi’ to see how things are in her world.

Apparently not well.

I confused the Naomis even before Dr Wolf lost her sanity. Sharron Davies is becoming a Poundshop British Naomi Wolf but a better swimmer.

[mattomac]

I did actually confuse the two but the more you read the more you understand why Klein put that book out.

I think those numbers in PA of those that have already voted will in the end be what Harris needs.

[safe_timber_man]

The weird drug addled South African/American billionaire now has big concerns about British farming practices and drops a pearl of wisdom.

Screenshot 2024-11-02 021125.jpg (90.11 KiB) Viewed 448 times

It feels a bit dystopian when that illiterate reply is from the world's richest man, with 200 million followers, to a random far Right grifter, on the biggest social media platform on earth. Strange times!

[safe_timber_man]

Are we not doing the predictions thread of the yearly dear departed anymore? Can't find it?

[Andy McDandy]

It got shelved a few years ago, as it was generally felt to be in bad taste.

[RedSparrows]

The weird drug addled South African/American billionaire now has big concerns about British farming practices and drops a pearl of wisdom.


Screenshot 2024-11-02 021125.jpg



It feels a bit dystopian when that illiterate reply is from the world's richest man, with 200 million followers, to a random far Right grifter, on the biggest social media platform on earth. Strange times!

So fucking dumb and so fucking dangerous.

Does 'state farms' means 'heavily subsidised private businesses'?!

[Bones McCoy]

It would seem that Rudy can fail.*

Seem like he's been drinking brew for breakfast.

[Bones McCoy]

The weird drug addled South African/American billionaire now has big concerns about British farming practices and drops a pearl of wisdom.


Screenshot 2024-11-02 021125.jpg



It feels a bit dystopian when that illiterate reply is from the world's richest man, with 200 million followers, to a random far Right grifter, on the biggest social media platform on earth. Strange times!

So fucking dumb and so fucking dangerous.

Does 'state farms' means 'heavily subsidised private businesses'?!

That's just "Farms".


This probably belongs in the budget section as much as here.

I can't help thinking that the farmers may have a point, but don't do themselves any favours with their communication.

Part of that reflects our more diverse society, that we have more types of job, and more specialisation.
There'd have been a time when lots of people knew a farmer, there were lots of farmers and they were part of the society of a market town.
Now there aren't as many farmers, they appear to be relatively socially isolated (with all the issues that causes), and much of their "trade" involves form filling and interactions with giant food conglomerates.
This Isolation provides the condittions where the right has learned to agitate.
(See also fishermen, military + veterans, and certain sizes of small business, train drivers, school teachers, junior doctors, "leftie" lawyers).

Yes, you're a small group (not so small with school teachers) , but often your shared interests make you an effective lobby group.
No, you're no longer part of a shared national social fabric (It was a thing in Trumpton and Camberwick Green), so you can be shat on with limited consequences.
The fishermen are an example of a group who got both ends of the stick.

Returning to farmers.
They seem to be well organised to turn out fast and grumble about non-specifics.
"We work dawn to dusk and then all night filling forms. We make no money".
But when we townies venture into the country our eyes tend to observe six or eight bedroom farmhouses, a fleet of range rovers of varying ages outside and sprawling lands attached.
If I visit a Glasgow estate agent website and accitentally click on the "Highest price first" sort option, I see two things.
Near the top, a small selection of scottish baronial mansions of 16-48 rooms, with stables and around a hundred acres.
But above that are a selection of farms.

Unfortunately, townies like me tend to see the major success stories, and miss the smaller farms scraping a living (if they actually exist).
We draw conclusions from our very limited observations.

A challenge for any government is to direct its largesse.
How do you support the struggling hill farmer, without bunging hundreds of millions to Norfolk barley barons?
Labour traditionally lacks roots in agricultural communities, so won't instinctively know.
The tories have those roots, but aren't inclined to direct the aid.

Perhaps Starmer's more collegiate approach to governing will help here.
Can he find a rural LibDem, one of Johnson's expelled tories (Rory Stewart?) or a crossbench peer who really understands the issue.

There's certainly nothing to be gained buy hob-nobbing with a celebrity hobby-farmer like Clarkson.

[Crabcakes]

Harris is now favoured by the bookies. Looks like they happily rinsed the last few coins from the MAGA faithful betting on their guy and have now switched to “house always wins” mode.

[mattomac]

538 is pretty much its closest it’s been 50/49 possible solutions with one dead heat in favour of Trump.

Seems it’s a bit more sensible with Nate the looney less involved.